近年來有相當多行為財務學的研究，探討一些市場上的異常行為，過度交易行為就是其中之一。為了解過度交易者如何存活下來，我們分析自然人在台灣期貨交易所(Taiwan Futures Exchange, TAIFEX)的台灣指數期貨的交易資料。我們將樣本分成兩組，一組是存活下來的人，簡稱「存活者」，另一組是退出市場的人，簡稱「退出者」。透過單一變數簡單迴歸，我們探究交易者獲利對風險的影響，設計出報酬反轉比例及轉虧為盈比例觀察交易者的報酬反轉情形，並歸納出交易策略。
實證結果發現樣本中大部分交易者的風險容忍度會隨著前期損失擴大而增加，也因前期賠錢而在下期增加交易量。交易者獲利的歸因於其風險控管能力(逢低加碼、停損策略)。並且發現存活者與退出者只有少數有特定的交易策略；此外，我們亦發現過度自信假說與交易量的正向關係並不太能解釋本研究樣本帳號所創造出來的成交量。

These years, there are many studies of behavioral finance discussing the anomalies in the financial market and overconfidence is one of it. In order to know how heavy traders survive in the market, we analyze individual traders’ trading data of Taiwan Index Futures from Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX). We separate our samples into two groups. One group is those who keeps trading in our sample period and we call them「survivors」. Another group is those who get out of market in the later period and we call them 「Non-survivors」.
Through the regression analysis, we analyze how profit affects risk and the connection between them. Besides, we design return-reverse ratio and loss-to-profit ratio to see the return reversal of individual traders. Finally, we want to find the trading strategy of these traders.
From the empirical results, we find that a large part of traders in our samples will increase their risk tolerance and trading volume following trading loss. Besides, the results show that those who earn a positive net realized gain, compared with those who earn a negative net realized gain, have better risk control ability such as buying new contracts at lower price and stop-loss strategy. However, we also find that only a small proportion of traders in our samples have specific trading strategy. Finally, our result find few evidences to prove that overconfidence is the main reason for the huge trading volume of these traders.

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