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研究生: 曾宜柔
Zeng, Yi-Rou
論文名稱: 臺灣降雨強度-延時-頻率公式之參數簡化研究
A Study on the Parameter Simplification of Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency Formulas in Taiwan
指導教授: 王筱雯
Wang, Hsiao-Wen
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 水利及海洋工程學系
Department of Hydraulic & Ocean Engineering
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 85
中文關鍵詞: 降雨強度-延時-頻率曲線參數簡化降雨尺度理論區域化分析
外文關鍵詞: Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves, Parameter simplification, Scaling theory, Regional analysis
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  • 臺灣現行降雨強度-延時-頻率(Intensity–Duration–Frequency, IDF)公式多以單一雨量測站為分析單元,並針對不同重現期分別率定 Horner 型公式參數。此方式雖可保留各測站降雨特性,但隨測站數量、重現期條件及資料更新需求增加,參數表規模亦隨之擴大,造成資料整理與工程查用之負擔。因此,本研究在保留水利署既有單站設計降雨成果之基礎上,探討 Horner 型 IDF 公式之參數重整與區域化簡化方式。
    本研究以經濟部水利署民國 113 年《全臺雨量站降雨強度延時公式推導》成果為基準,並以地質流域分區作為區域化分析單元。方法上,本研究以60分鐘設計降雨強度作為基準延時強度,結合尺度型 IDF 架構與時間平移修正,建立單站尺度型與分區區域化兩種參數配置。前者用以檢驗 Horner 公式重整後之可行性,後者則將部分延時轉換參數設定為分區共享,以評估參數簡化後之推估表現。
    研究結果顯示,以60分鐘設計降雨強度重整 Horner 公式後,單站尺度型公式可有效重現水利署逐站公式之主要降雨強度變化。進一步採用分區區域化配置後,雖相較單站尺度型公式略有誤差增加,但仍可維持合理推估表現,並使參數管理量較傳統 Horner 公式減少約62.15%。延時分析結果顯示,本研究公式於1小時以內之短延時條件下表現較穩定,適用於都市排水等以短延時降雨為主之工程應用;當延時超過1小時後,高分位誤差有放大情形,應用於長延時設計雨型、累積雨量或滯洪容量估算時仍需審慎檢核。

    Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) formulas in Taiwan are currently made for individual rain gauge stations, with a different set of Horner-type formula parameters for each station and return period. Although this method keeps the rainfall features of each station, the number of parameters grows quickly when there are more stations and return periods. This makes data management and engineering use more complicated. Therefore, based on the existing design rainfall results from the Water Resources Agency (WRA), this study changes the parameters of Horner-type IDF formulas and tests if stations in the same region can share parameters.
    This study uses the Derivation of Rainfall Intensity–Duration Formulae for Rain Gauge Stations in Taiwan published by the WRA in 2024 as the basis for analysis and adopts geological watershed regions as the spatial units for regionalization. The proposed method uses the 60-minute design rainfall intensity as the reference value, combining a scaling-based IDF model with a time-shift parameter. Two parameter setups are developed: a station-specific scaling formula and a regionalized scaling formula. The station-specific formula checks if the Horner-type formula can be restructured effectively. The regionalized formula allows selected duration-related parameters to be shared within each region to reduce the overall number of parameters.
    The results show that the station-specific scaling formula can effectively reproduce the design rainfall intensity from the original WRA formulas. Although regionalization slightly increases errors, the overall performance remains good. Furthermore, the regionalized setup reduces the number of managed parameters by about 62.15% compared with traditional Horner formulas. In terms of rainfall duration, the proposed formula works more consistently for durations within one hour, making it suitable for short-duration applications such as urban drainage design. For durations longer than one hour, errors are larger for extreme rainfalls. Therefore, applications involving long-duration design storms, cumulative rainfall estimation, or detention pond design still require careful verification.

    摘要 I ABSTRACT II 致謝 VII 目錄 VIII 圖目錄 XI 表目錄 XIII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 3 1.3 研究架構 4 第二章 文獻回顧 6 2.1 降雨強度-延時-頻率曲線 6 2.1.1 早期經驗公式之發展 7 2.1.2 頻率分析與機率分布模型 8 2.2 臺灣現行降雨強度公式之規範與應用 10 2.2.1 水利署單站 Horner 型降雨強度公式 10 2.2.2 水土保持技術規範之無因次降雨強度公式 12 2.3 降雨尺度理論與時間降尺度 13 2.4 小結與研究定位 19 第三章 研究方法 20 3.1 研究資料與空間分析單元 20 3.1.1 雨量測站選取與分析維度 20 3.1.2 區域化空間分析單元 21 3.2 尺度型 IDF 修正公式 29 3.2.1 尺度型 IDF 之理論基礎 29 3.2.2 基準延時選取與時間平移修正式 31 3.2.3 參數之區域化配置 33 3.3 參數求解 36 3.4 誤差評估指標 43 第四章 結果與討論 46 4.1 參數計算結果與資料量縮減效果 46 4.2 不同參數簡化方法之整體推估表現 49 4.3 不同延時與重現期條件下之誤差變化 52 4.3.1 延時誤差變化 52 4.3.2 重現期誤差變化 54 4.4 不同分區下之推估誤差比較 59 4.5 區域化 IDF 公式對洪峰流量推估之影響 62 第五章 結論與建議 64 5.1 結論 64 5.2 建議 65 參考文獻 68

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