| 研究生: |
宋嘉文 Sung, Chia-Wen |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
氣候變遷對台灣西半部地區降雨及乾旱影響之研究 A Study of Impacts of Climate Change on Precipitation and Drought in Western Taiwan |
| 指導教授: |
游保杉
Yu, Pao-Shan |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
工學院 - 水利及海洋工程學系 Department of Hydraulic & Ocean Engineering |
| 論文出版年: | 2003 |
| 畢業學年度: | 91 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 88 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 乾旱 、標準化降雨量指標 、氣候變遷 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | climate change, drought, Standardized Precipitation Index |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:168 下載:39 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
由於自1950年以後溫室效應之氣體明顯增加,使得全球與區域性之氣候改變之可能性大幅提高,如降雨與乾旱現象。由於台灣近年來隨著工商業發展且人口多集中於西半部地區,使得農工業與民生用水需求急速增加,因此,氣候變遷之影響因而更受重視。本文主要的目的在探討氣候變遷對於台灣西半部地區降雨之影響,並進一步評估在降雨變化造成之乾旱現象。
本文採近一百年降雨資料之31個雨量站利用Cumulative Deviations檢定法、Kruskal-Wallis檢定法與Mann-Whitney-Pettitt檢定法,來進行台灣西半部地區長期降雨的變化趨勢檢驗,分析項目包括:年一日最大降雨量、年不降雨日數、年降雨量、月降雨量等降雨特性與增減趨勢。分析結果顯示:降雨量發生顯著變化之改變點大約為1960年左右,因此將資料自改變點分成前後兩樣本,發現平均月降雨量在前後兩樣本有顯著之改變,且年降雨量部分有北部增加、中南部地區減少之現象。
最後將平均月降雨量變化之影響利用標準化降雨量指標(SPI)評估台灣西半部地區的乾旱現象。結果顯示:發現約1960年以後的氣象乾旱次數於北部地區有減少之現象,中南部地區有次數增加之現象。
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have recorded continual increase since the 1950s, a phenomenon that may significantly alter global and local climate characteristics, such as rainfall and drought. The theme aims at investigating rainfall variations in recent decades and its impacts on drought characteristic in western Taiwan, in where more population is living. That causes more agricultural, industrial and municipal water are required and the impact of climate change on there is more concerned.
Thirty-one raingages with near hundred year historical rainfall records provide the data base for this study. The Cumulative Deviations test, Kruskal-Wallis test, and Mann-Whitney-Pettitt test were adopted to detect whether these long-term historical rainfall series exist significant variation and tendency. The characteristics of rainfall series investigated in this work include the annual maximum daily rainfall depth, non-rainy days, rainfall depth and monthly rainfall depth. The tests found that these hundred year historical rainfall series have significant change point about 1960s, from where historical series can be divided into two samples. The average monthly rainfall from these two samples has also significant variation. The study results also reveal that annual rainfall depth in northern Taiwan has increased tendency. But the tendency is decreased in middle and southern Taiwan.
The impacts of variations of average monthly rainfall on drought characteristics were further investigated by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The study found that the period and occurrences of drought has been decreased in northern Taiwan, but increased in middle and southern Taiwan since 1960.
1.王如意、易任,「應用水文學」,國立編譯館,1982。
2.牛頓雜誌,「年度大特集-地球大洪水時代」,第217期,第18-85頁,牛頓出版公司出版。
3.吳瑞賢、蘇文瑞、溫博文、林進財,「區域性乾旱模式之研究」,第十一屆水利工程研討會論文集下冊,O115-O121頁,2000。
4.吳瑞賢、朱佳仁、林永敏、蘇文瑞,「台灣北部地區溫度、雨量變遷之初步探討」,農業工程研討會論文集,第401-407頁,1994。
5.吳至剛,「氣候變遷對高屏溪流域水資源衝擊之探討」,國立成功大學水利及海洋工程研究所碩士論文,2000。
6.金紹興、謝明昌,「氣候變遷對台灣水文環境之影響」,新世紀水資源問題研析與對策研討會,台南縣,第A-1~A7頁,2001。
7.周建至,「氣候變遷對水稻田灌溉需水量之影響」,國立成功大學水利及海洋工程研究所碩士論文,1999。
8.柳中明、許晃雄、童慶彬、陳明業,「2002年乾旱之省思」,http://hsu.as.ntu.edu.tw,2002。
9.柳中明、吳佳瑜,「全球氣象災害分析」,科學月刊,第29卷,第6期,第493-499頁,1998。
10.張炎銘,「建立乾旱警報系統初論」,台灣水利,第39卷,第4期,第73-83頁,1991。
11.莊秉潔、吳明進、劉啟清、陳世煥,「台灣區域性氣候變化」,中國環境工程學刊,第6卷,第2期,1996。
12.莊秉潔、吳明進、劉啟清、陳世煥「台灣之氣候變遷與預測(下)」,大自然季刊,第59期,第108-112頁,1998。
13.莊秉潔、吳明進、劉啟清、陳世煥「台灣之氣候變遷與預測(上)」,大自然季刊,第58期,第106-111頁,1998。
14.許晃雄,「淺談氣候變遷之科學」,http://weather197.as.ntu.edu.tw。
15.許晃雄,「坦然面對氣候變遷」,科學月刊,第36卷,第5期,第404-409頁,2000。
16.許晃雄、柯文雄、鄒治華、陳正達,台灣環境變遷與全球環境變遷衝擊之評析—氣候,行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告,2000。
17.許晃雄、柯文雄、鄒治華、陳正達、徐光蓉,台灣環境變遷與全球環境變遷衝擊之評析—氣候變遷(II),行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告,2000。
18.許晃雄,台灣環境變遷與全球環境變遷衝擊之評析—氣候變遷(III),行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告,2000。
19.許書平,「氣候變遷對水資源之衝擊-雨量分析」,私立淡江大學水資源及環境工程學系碩士論文,1997。
20.童慶彬、洪念民、陳主惠,「氣候變遷對水資源影響評估與適應策略研擬」,農業工程學報,第45卷,第4期,第73-90頁,1999。
21.曾仁宏、顏正平,「乾旱指標方法之研究」,第七屆水利工程研討會論文集,第C145-C158頁,1994。
22.經濟部水資源統一規劃委員會,「歷年來台灣枯旱研究」,1982。
23.經濟部水資源統一規劃委員會,「台灣乾旱特性之研究」,1992。
24.經濟部水資源統一規劃委員會,「氣候變遷對水資源影響評估及適應策略研究」,1995。
25.經濟部水資源統一規劃委員會,「氣候變遷對台灣水文環境影響之研究」,1995。
26.經濟部水資源局,「乾旱指標之建立-中部及南部區域」,1999。
27.虞國興、許書平,「氣候變遷對水資源之衝擊-雨量分析」,農業工程學報,第44卷,第1期,第9-24頁,1998。
28.虞國興、莊明德,「台灣乾旱特性之研究」,台灣水利,第40卷,第4期,第20-33頁,1992。
29.顏月珠,實用無母數統計方法,陳昭明發行,臺北市,1986。
30.「灌溉節水技術手冊」,行政院農業委員會、財團法人台北市七星農田水利研究發展基金會,1995。
31.Adnan, H., and A. Salihi, “Drought identification and characterization in Jordan”, Journal of Arid Environments, 53, pp. 585-606, 2003.
32.Buishand, T. A., “Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records”, Journal of Hydrology, 58, pp. 11-27, 1982.
33.Benjamin, L. H., and M. A. Saunders, “A Drought Climatology for Europe”, International Journal of Climatology, 22, pp. 1571-1592, 2002.
34.Burn, D. H., and Mohamed A. Hag Elnur, “Detection of hydrologic trends and variability”, Journal of Hydrology, 255, pp. 107-122, 2002.
35.Crisci, A., B. Gozzini, F. Meneguzzo, S. Pagliara and G. Maracchi, “Extreme rainfall in a changing climate:regional analysis and hydrological implication in Tuscany”, Hydrological Processes, 16, pp. 1261-1274, 2002.
36.Collischonn, W., C.E.M. Tucci, R.T. Clarke, “Further evidence of changes in the hydrological regime of the River Paraguay:part of a wider phenomenon of climate change?”, Journal of Hydrology, 245, pp. 218-238, 2001.
37.Garcia, C. P., A. M. Barceló, and J. L. Garcia Merayo, “The Drought of 1991-5 in southern Spain”, Drought volume Ⅰ :A Global Assessment. pp. 367-380, 2000.
38.Hoppe, H.,and G. Kiely, “Precipitation Over Ireland-Observed Change Since 1940”, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B:Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere, Elsevier Science, 24(1-2), pp. 91-96, 1999.
39.Hayes, M. J., M. D., Svoboda, D. A, Wilhite., and O. V., Vanyarkho, “Monitoring the 1996 Drought Using the Standardized Precipitation Index”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(3):pp. 429-438, 1999.
40.Hayes, M., M. Svoboda, and D. A., Wilhite, “Monitoring Drought Using the Standardized Precipitation Index”, Drought volume Ⅰ :A Global Assessment. pp. 168-180, 2000.
41.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Third Assessment Report, Available from http://www.ipcc.ch/, 2001.
42.Kiely, G., “Climate change in Ireland from precipitation and streamflow observation”, Advances in Water Resources, 23, pp. 141-151, 1999.
43.Kiely, G., J. D. Albertson, and M. B. Parlange, “Recent trends in diurnal variation of precipitation at Valentia on the west coast of Ireland”, Journal of Hydrology, 207, pp. 270-279, 1998.
44.Lucero, O. A., “Invariance of the design storm in a region under a rainfall climate change at mid-latitudes”, Atmospheric Research, 49, pp. 11-20, 1998.
45.Lucero, O. A., and D., Rozas, “Characteristics of aggregation of daily rainfall in a middle-latitudes region during a climate variability in annual rainfall amount”, Atmospheric Research, 61, pp. 35-48, 2002.
46.Mckee, T. B., N. J., Doesken, and J. Kleist, “The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales”, Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 January,1993, Anaheim, California, U.S.A, pp. 179-184, 1993.
47.Mirza, M.Q., R.A. Warrick, N. J. Ericksen, and G. J. Kenny, “Trends and persistence in precipitation in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Basins in South Asia”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 43, pp. 845–858, 1998.
48.Michael, J. H., “What is Drought?-Drought Indices”, Climate Impacts Specialist, National Drought Mitigation Center, Available from http://ndmc.unl.edu/, 2003.
49.Min, S. K., W. T. Kwon, E. H. Park and Y. Choi, “Spatial and Temporal Comparisons of Droughts over Korea with East Asia” International Journal of Climatology, 23, pp.223-233, 2003.
50.Pettitt, A. N., “A Non-parametric Approach to the Change-point Problem”, Applied Statistic, 28(2), pp. 126-135, 1979.
51.Pagliara, S., C. Viti, B. Gozzini, F. Meneguzzo, and A. Crisci, “Uncertainties and trends in extreme rainfall series in Tuscany, Italy: Effects on urban drainage networks design”, Water Science and Technology 37(11), pp. 195-202, 1998.
52.Serrano, A., V. L. Mateos and J. A. García, “Trend Analysis of Monthly Precipitation Over the Iberian Peninsula for the Period 1921-1995”, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B:Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere, Elsevier Science, 24(1-2), pp. 85-90, 1999.
53.Seiler, R. A., M. Hayes and L. Bressan, “Using the Standardized Precipitation Index for flood risk monitoring”, International Journal of Climatology, 22, pp. 1365-1376, 2002.
54.Szalai, S., Cs. Szinell, and J. Zoboki, “Drought Monitoring in Hungary”, Proceedings of an Expert Group Meeting held September 5-7, 2002, in Lisbon, Portugal, pp. 182-199.
55.Timothy, J. O., M. Hulme, P. D. Jones and T. A. Basnett, “Observed Trend in The Daily Intensity of United Kingdom Precipitation”, International Journal of Climatology, 20, pp. 347-364, 2000.
56.Yue, Sheng, P. Pilon, and G. Cavadias, “Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series”, Journal of Hydrology, 259, pp. 254-271, 2002.
57.Ziegler, A. D., J. Sheffield, E. F. Wood, “Detection of intensification of the global water cycle:the potential of FRIEND”, Proceedings of the Fourth International FRIEND Conference held at Cape Town. South Africa. March, pp. 51-57, 2002.