第 26 屆締約國大會通過《格拉斯哥氣候協議》，此協議提及逐步減少化石燃料使用，且逐年檢視各國於減碳之成效，期望於 2050 年達到淨零碳排放，各國也陸續提出淨零排放期程與目標。因應國際淨零趨勢，我國亦於2022 年 4 月發布《台灣 2050 淨零排放路徑及策略總說明》，並規劃大幅提升再生能源裝置容量，以減少電力部門排碳量，但欠缺評估不同深度減碳目標下對於各類減碳技術組合之影響。基此，本研究以小時別資料建構電力供給規劃模型，以模擬再生能源間歇性所產生之發電量波動性，並納入氫能、碳捕獲與封存等前瞻能源技術及儲能技術，設定基準情境及低、中、高三種減碳情境，以探討我國於 2050 年各情境之減碳技術組合變化，並評估對於電力結構之影響。
模擬結果顯示，基準情境至 2050 年的總發電量為 4,067 億度；其中，離岸風力、太陽光電及燃氣發電為主要發電來源。基準情境下的二氧化碳排放量可降低至 6,852 萬公噸，碳排放係數則降為 0.168 公斤 CO2/度。在各減碳情境下的再生能源發電占比介於 59.26%～65.77%間，將由現行以化石燃料為主的發電結構轉變為以再生能源為主的電力結構。在小時別模擬結果方面，冬季白天以離岸風電加上太陽光電幾近可滿足所有電力需求，但夏季白天離岸風電加上太陽光電並不足以滿足電力需求。在低減碳情境下，會搭配燃氣發電與燃煤發電以滿足電力需求。但在中減碳與高減碳情境下，由於排放量限制逐漸趨嚴，將顯著增加燃氣發電搭配碳捕獲與封存之發電量。
此外，模擬結果亦顯示氫能在深度減碳的情境下可扮演重要角色，為未來邁向淨零碳排之重要技術之一，建議可積極投入氫能發電之技術開發與示範應用，並完善氫能運儲基礎設施，以提升產業投入之意願，加速我國減碳之進程。

In response to the global net-zero emissions target, Taiwan released "Taiwan's 2050 Net-Zero Emission Pathway and Strategy" in April 2022, which includes significantly increasing the capacity of renewable energy in order to reduce carbon emissions in the electricity sector. By incorporating emerging energy technologies, such as hydrogen energy, carbon capture and storage, as well as energy storage technologies, this study constructed an electricity supply planning model based on hourly data to simulate volatility in power generation caused by the intermittent of renewable energy sources. A variety of scenario simulations were conducted to explore changes in the technology mix in various scenarios for 2050, and impacts on the power structure were also evaluated.
The current power generation structure is dominated by fossil fuels and will be transformed into a power structure dominated by renewable energy. From the baseline scenario, our simulation results showed that the total electricity production will be 406.7 billion kWh in 2050, with the major sources of power being offshore wind energy, solar photovoltaic, and LNG-fired technology. In each carbon reduction scenario, the proportion of renewable energy power generation ranged from 59.26% to 65.77%.
Simulation results also revealed that hydrogen energy, which is one of the key technologies to moving to net-zero carbon emissions in the future, will play an important role in deep carbon reductions. Actively investing in the technological development and demonstration application of hydrogen energy power generation as well as improving transportation and storage infrastructure of hydrogen energy are strongly recommended by which to increase the willingness of industrial investment and accelerate the process of carbon reduction in Taiwan.

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