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研究生: 陳子霖
Chen, Zi-Lin
論文名稱: 大學籃球員NBA選秀順位之預測:以探索性因素分析建立回歸模型
The prediction of college basketball players' NBA Draft Picks: establishing a regression model with exploratory factor analysis
指導教授: 黃瀞瑩
Huang, Ching-Ying
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 企業管理學系
Department of Business Administration
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 97
中文關鍵詞: 回歸分析因素分析球員品牌球員策略NBA選秀球員生涯
外文關鍵詞: Regression Analysis, Factor Analysis, Player Branding, Player Strategy, NBA Draft, Player Career
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  • 在當今社群媒體和數位行銷迅速發展的背景下,個人品牌的建立已成為許多運動員重視的核心議題。本研究首先探討NBA選秀的規則與其演變,並基於大學運動數據與體能測試數據,使用因素分析中的主成分方法將29項變量分解成七大構面。透過多項式邏輯斯回歸模型,樣本為260位參與NBA選秀大會的球員,使用College Basketball section of Sports-Reference的資料、National Basketball Association(美國職業聯盟)的官方網站、Basketball Reference 資料庫 。詳細分析了這些構面對選秀輪次的影響。得出在投籃效率和進攻貢獻因子在所探討的三個模型中均顯著正相關於選秀輪次,表明投籃與進攻的綜合指標在選秀裡扮演重要角色。然而,本研究卻發現,比賽場數較多的球員在模型中大部分皆呈現顯著負相關,反而會造成選秀中的輪次更低。

    In the context of rapidly evolving social media and digital marketing, the establishment of a personal brand has become a core issue for many athletes. This study first explores the rules and evolution of the NBA Draft, and uses principal component analysis within factor analysis to decompose 29 variables into seven major dimensions. A polynomial logistic regression model was applied, analyzing a sample of 260 athletes participating in the NBA Draft, using data from College Basketball section of Sports-Reference, the official NBA(National Basketball Association)website, and the Basketball Reference database. The analysis detailed the impact of these dimensions on draft rounds. It was found that shooting efficiency and offensive contribution factors were significantly positively correlated with draft rounds in all three models examined, indicating that these composite indicators of shooting and offense play a crucial role in the draft. However, the study also unexpectedly found that players with a higher number of games mostly showed a significant negative correlation, leading to lower draft positions.

    摘要 I Abstract II 謝辭 VI 壹、 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景動機與目的 1 第三節 研究流程與架構 5 貳、 文獻探討 7 第一節 選秀順位的演進過程、規定與重要性 7 第二節 大學籃球成績與體測數據對球員生涯的影響 10 第三節 球員市場價值和品牌形象與選秀順位的關聯 12 參、 研究方法 14 第一節 資料收集 14 第二節 變數定義 15 第三節 研究分析方法 39 肆、 研究結果 46 第一節 敘述性統計與相關係數分析 46 第二節 因素分析結果 50 第二節 建立回歸模型 56 第三節 回歸模型分析與關聯性 60 伍、 結論與建議 73 第一節 研究結論及貢獻 73 第二節 管理意涵 79 第三節 研究限制及建議 79 參考文獻 81 附錄 84

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