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研究生: 陳氏秋賢
TRAN, HIEN THI THU
論文名稱: 氣候對所得影響及颱風損失模型研究:以越南為例
The assessment of typhoon losses and the income effects of weather variability in Vietnam
指導教授: 郭彥廉
Kuo, Yen-lien
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 自然災害減災及管理國際碩士學位學程
International Master Program on Natural Hazards Mitigation and Management
論文出版年: 2016
畢業學年度: 104
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 89
外文關鍵詞: typhoon loss, weather variability, income effect
相關次數: 點閱:101下載:15
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  • This paper assesses the typhoon losses and income effect of weather variability in Vietnam by using multi-variable regression method with panel data. The income models show that extremely hot weather and widespread rains reduce sector income. The results also indicate that widespread rains decrease income in all five income quintiles. The results imply that the government needs to have financial policies in place that help sectors and people prevent and mitigate damages caused by extremely hot weather and widespread rains. The results indicate that typhoons in Vietnam often cause widespread flooding that damage not only properties but also human losses. The results show the coastal region of Ninh Thuan – Ca Mau and The Mekong River Delta are vulnerable to typhoons. The government needs to focus effective support policies to help people in two regions to mitigate the effect of typhoons. In addition, the government and insurance enterprises can offer weather insurance against weather variability, especially natural hazard insurance, such as typhoon insurance, flooding insurance, etc.

    ABSTRACT I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS II TABLE OF CONTENTS III LIST OF TABLES V LIST OF FIGURES VI LIST OF ACRONYMS VII CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research motivation 1 1.2 Research objectives 3 1.3 Framework of study 4 4.2 The model of typhoon losses 4 5.2 Future research 4 1.4 Background of Vietnam. 5 1.4.1Geography of Vietnam 5 1.4.2 The weather in Vietnam 7 1.4.3 Typhoons in Vietnam 10 1.4.4 The socio-economic situation of Vietnam 14 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 17 2.1 The assessment of typhoon losses 17 2.2 Economic effects of weather variability 18 2.3 Income 22 2.4 Summary 23 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 24 3.1 Empirical models 24 3.1.1 The models of weather variability on income 24 3.1.2 The models of typhoon losses 28 3.2 Data 28 3.2.1 Income data 28 3.2.2 Weather data 30 3.2.3 Typhoon loss data 34 CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS 46 4.1 The models of weather variability effects on income 46 4.1.1 The effect of weather variability on income in sectors 47 4.1.2 The effect of weather variability on income quintiles 50 4.2 The model of typhoon losses 52 4.2.1 Human loss model 53 4.2.2 House damage model 55 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS 59 5.1. Conclusion and suggestions 59 5.2. Future research 61 REFERENCES 62 APPENDIXES 65

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