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研究生: 唐頎林
Tasarra, Zherlaine Jean
論文名稱: “氣候調適規劃:以菲律賓颱風首都巴托為例”
“Climate Adaptable Planning: Bato amidst the disasters in the Typhoon Capital of the Philippines”
指導教授: 趙子元
Chao, Tzu-Yuan
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 自然災害減災及管理國際碩士學位學程
International Master Program on Natural Hazards Mitigation and Management
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 138
中文關鍵詞: 巴托颱風土地利用總體規劃形態學風災韌性氣候適應自然解方
外文關鍵詞: Bato, Typhoons, Comprehensive Land Use Plan, Assessment Method Exploration, Morphology, Resiliency, Climate Adaptation
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  • 巴托 (Bato) 是卡坦端內斯島 (Catanduanes) 東部的一個市鎮,也是颱風在菲律賓的主要登陸地。該地區位於太平洋沿岸,經常受到熱帶氣旋的侵襲,氣候變遷更使此趨勢惡化。雖然該地區受惠於豐富的農業與水產資源,但特定區域的颱風經常對該地區造成破壞,對居民的生活品質造成負面影響,即使居民自認為具有「抗颱能力」。
    本研究旨在透過探討各種分析方法,評估 Bato 的規劃評估策略及其基礎設施對颱風的抵禦能力。這些方法包括 基礎地圖疊圖分析(Base Map Layering)、社會脆弱度指數分析(Social Vulnerability Index, SVI)、視覺分析(Ocular Analysis)及利害關係人分析(Stakeholder Analysis),用於他們的土地利用總體規劃(Comprehensive Land Use Plan, CLUP)中的減災風險管理(Disaster Risk Reduction, DRR),以及對他們的場地形態(Site Morphology)的分析。前述方法能有效找出潛在問題,以利災後重建。
    因此,我們將同時分析荷蘭皇家哈斯康寧公司 (Royal HaskoningDHV) 於颱風 Goni (2020 年) 後在卡坦端內斯 (Catanduanes) 所進行的氣候調適量測結果,以進一步指認該地的脆弱性。同樣地,本研究將著重於土地使用規劃與基礎建設發展的脆弱性評估分析。

    Bato is an Eastern municipality within the island of Catanduanes, the entry point of most Philippine typhoons. Situated along the Pacific Ocean, the area regularly experiences tropical cyclones, a trend worsened by climate change. While the area benefits from richer agriculture and aquatic resources, region-specific typhoons frequently devastate the region, negatively affecting the residents' quality of life, even when they view themselves as “Resilient”.
    This thesis aims to evaluate Bato’s planning assessment strategies and infrastructure preparedness for typhoons by exploring various assessment methods. These include Base Map Layering, Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), Ocular Analysis/Visual Analysis, and Stakeholder Analysis, of their Site Morphology and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in the local Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP). The previously stated methods are known to be effective in identifying underlying issues to facilitate smoother recovery from catastrophes.
    Consequently, parallel analyses will be conducted by studying the Climate Adaptation Measurements implemented by the Dutch company Royal HaskoningDHV in Catanduanes after typhoon Goni (2020), to identify the site's vulnerabilities further. Again, this research will focus on land-use planning and infrastructure development vulnerability assessment analysis.

    ABSTRACT III ACKNOWLEDGMENTS V TABLE OF CONTENTS VII LIST OF FIGURES X CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 14 1.1 Research Background 14 1.2 Motivation 18 1.3 Research Goals, Objective, Purpose, and Questions 19 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 21 2.1 Climate Adaptation in Planning and Development 21 2.1.1 International Responses to Climate Adaptability 22 2.1.2 Sustainable Planning Strategies Utilized in Bato Catanduanes 22 2.2 Weather and Climatology + Risk Assessment 23 2.2.1 Basics on Philippine Climatology (Vulnerability in a Tropical Cyclone Risk Model: Philippines Case Study) 23 2.2.2 Typhoon Haiyan, “Build Back Better" 24 2.2.3 Bato Catanduanes Typhooon History 24 2.3 Typhoon Goni, its Impact, and the Local Government Response 25 2.3.1 Local Government Unit (LGU) 26 2.4 Site Morphology: Infrastructure and Planning History and Trends 26 2.4.1 International Planning Strategies Implemented in the Philippines 27 2.4.2 National Structural Code of the Philippines 2015 27 2.4.3 National Building Code of the Philippines 28 2.4.4 Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP) 28 2.4.5 Building with Nature 29 2.5 Planning Analysis Methods and Population Assessment 30 2.6 Case Studies on Typhoons, Social Vulnerability, Path Dependence & Theory of Change. Risk Assessments Leading to Climate Adaptation 31 2.6.1 Research on Self-Reliance Disaster Prevention Community – the Case of Kunshan Community in 2018’s Heavy Rain 31 2.6.2 A Case Study on the Royal HaskoningDHV DRR Catanduanes: Roadmap towards a Coastal Management Strategy 32 2.7 Framework Formulation 36 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY. 38 3.1 SCOPE AND DELIMITATIONS 38 3.1.1 Aerial Scope 38 3.1.2 Time Scope 39 3.1.3 On-Site Gathering 39 3.1.4 Study Scope. 39 3.1.5 Stakeholder Scope 39 3.1.6 On-Site Gathering 40 3.1.7 Summary of Scope and Limitations 40 3.2 METHODS OF RESEARCH 41 3.2.1 Empirical research, quantitative, and qualitative 41 3.2.2 Data Sources, Interview Questions, Mapping Techniques, and SVI Formulas 44 3.2.3 Discussion of Research Methods 50 CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS 51 4.1 Initial Data Gathered 51 4.2 Initial GIS Analysis 60 4.3 Validation Through Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) 61 4.4 IDW and Kriging Analysis 79 4.5 Validation Through Stakeholder Focus Group Interviews 88 4.6 Ocular Analysis 99 4.7 Extended Discussion 105 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 110 Conclusion 111 Recommendations 113 Suggestions for Further Research: 114 REFERENCES 115 APPENDICES 125 Appendix 1: Chapter 1 Figures. 125 Appendix 2: Chapter 2 Figures 126 NHA 127 SRDPC Kunshan Community 129 Appendix 2: Resident Questionnaire: 131 Appendix 3: Specialist Questionnaire: 133 Appendix 4: Boundary Map and Kriging Maps 136 Appendix 5: Documentation of Interviews: 138

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