| 研究生: |
張席綸 Zhang, Xi-Lun |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
經濟政策不確定性與企業現金持有關聯性之研究:動物型與植物型企業之比較 Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Cash Holdings: Evidence from Animal- and Plant-Type Firms |
| 指導教授: |
楊朝旭
Young, Chaur-Shiuh |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 會計學系 Department of Accountancy |
| 論文出版年: | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 62 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 經濟政策不確定性 、現金持有 、動物型企業 、植物型企業 、海外營運曝險 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | economic policy uncertainty, cash holdings, animal-type firms, plant-type firms, foreign operational exposure |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:13 下載:1 |
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本研究旨在探討經濟政策不確定性對企業現金持有之影響,並進一步分析不同海外營運曝險程度之企業,在面對政策不確定性上升時是否具有不同之現金持有反應。本研究以2004年至2024年台灣上市非金融業公司為研究對象,並排除金融保險業、KY公司及主要變數資料缺漏之樣本,最終取得40,096筆公司年度觀察值。本文以全球經濟政策不確定性指數作為主要衡量變數,並以企業現金占總資產比率作為現金持有水準之代理變數,檢驗經濟政策不確定性是否影響企業之財務決策。
此外,本研究依企業海外營運曝險程度,將企業區分為動物型企業與植物型企業。由於公開資料中企業海外營收資訊較不完整,本文以財務報表中「國外營運機構財務報表換算之兌換差額」建構海外營運曝險代理指標,並以公司層級平均曝險程度作為分類依據。海外營運曝險較高者歸類為動物型企業,海外營運曝險較低者則歸類為植物型企業,以進一步檢驗企業營運型態是否會影響經濟政策不確定性與現金持有之關係。
實證結果顯示,經濟政策不確定性與企業現金持有呈顯著正向關係,表示當政策不確定性上升時,企業傾向提高現金持有,以維持財務彈性並因應未來可能之資金需求。進一步分析發現,相較於植物型企業,動物型企業在面對經濟政策不確定性上升時,現金持有反應更為明顯,顯示海外營運曝險程度較高之企業,可能因同時面臨多國政策、匯率、貿易與地緣政治風險,而更傾向保留現金作為預防性緩衝。
本研究亦進行多項額外測試以確認實證結果之穩健性,包括改以美國經濟政策不確定性指數替代全球經濟政策不確定性指數、調整動物型與植物型企業之分類門檻、使用連續型海外營運曝險變數,以及排除2008年全球金融危機與2020年新冠疫情年度。整體結果大致支持本文主要發現,顯示經濟政策不確定性上升確實會促使企業提高現金持有,且此效果在海外營運曝險較高之企業中更為顯著。綜合而言,本文研究結果支持企業在面對外部不確定性時具有預防性現金持有動機,並指出企業海外營運曝險程度可能是影響現金持有決策的重要因素。
This study examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate cash holdings and whether this effect differs between firms with different levels of foreign operational exposure. Using Taiwan’s listed non-financial firms from 2004 to 2024, the final sample consists of 40,096 firm-year observations.
The results show that economic policy uncertainty significantly increases corporate cash holdings. Moreover, animal-type firms, which have higher foreign operational exposure, show a stronger cash holding response than plant-type firms. This suggests that firms with greater foreign operational exposure may hold more cash to cope with international policy, exchange rate, and trade risks.
Overall, this study supports the precautionary motive for cash holdings and indicates that foreign operational exposure plays an important role in firms’ financial decisions under uncertainty.
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