本文主要應用灰色理論對電力設備局部放電之量測峰值趨勢分析並以實際量測信號驗證之。利用高頻比流器(HFCT)感應電力設備電流脈衝訊號，以類比數位轉換電路(ADC)搭配現場可程式化邏輯閘陣列(FPGA)進行資料擷取與傳輸，萃取其脈衝特徵值建立峰值趨勢並觀察被試物趨勢變化。趨勢分析上使用移動平均法進行資料前處理濾除峰值趨勢高頻成份得到平穩趨勢走向，接著以灰色理論對峰值趨勢進行預測，將兩者結合應用建立動態灰色預測系統。主要目標為預測電力設備訊號之峰值趨勢常態分布範圍，並以此範圍當作新的警戒門檻，同時作為系統過濾資料之標準。進行長期的趨勢監測時隨著量測時間越來越長，電腦端需要分析的資料量也越來越多，因此只保留超過新警戒門檻資料的原始波形，來過濾並減少資料量。經過動態灰色預測系統過濾後的原始波形再使用小波濾雜訊法(Wavelet Denoising)濾除環境雜訊並繪製成二維相分布圖譜以觀察其相位分布狀態。將模擬後的演算法設計於LabVIEW人機介面上進行實際測試並且透過PD校正器(Calibrator)、單相模鑄式變壓器、25-kV XLPE電力電纜、345-kV 輸電級充油地下電纜對動態灰色預測系統的性能進行驗證。

This study aims to analyze the partial discharge peak value trend of electric equipment measured with Grey Theory and prove with actually measured signals. A high-frequency current transformer is utilized for inducing current pulse signals of electric equipment and an analog-to-digital converter matched with field programmable gate array is used for the data retrieval and transmission to extract the pulse eigenvalue for establishing the peak value trend and observing the trend change of the tested object. For trend analyses, Moving Average Method is used for the data preprocessing to filter high-frequency contents in the peak value trend to acquire the stable trend, and Grey Theory is applied to predict the peak value trend. The two are combined to establish the dynamic grey forecasting system. The major objective is to predict the normal distribution area of the signal peak value trend of electric equipment and the area is used for the new alert limit as well as the data filtering standard of the system. The long-term trend detection is proceeded, and the data volume for analyses in the computer end would increase with the longer measuring time. In this case, merely original waveforms exceeding the new alert limit is kept to filter and reduce the data volume. Original waveforms, after being filtered with the dynamic grey forecasting system, are further filtered the environmental noise with wavelet de-noising and drawn a 2D phase distribution map in order to observe the phase distribution state. The simulated algorithm is designed on the LabVIEW human-machine interface for actual testing, and the performance of PD calibrator, single-phase cast resin transformer, 25-kV XLPE power cable, and 345-kV transmission oil-filled underground cable on the dynamic grey forecasting system is verified.

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