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研究生：	林士翔 Lin, Shih-Hsiang
論文名稱：	國際資金流動的因素探討-以新興市場拉丁美洲為例 A Study on International Capital Flow Determining Factor--The Case of Emerging Markets in Latin America
指導教授：	王澤世 Wang, Tse-Shih
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	管理學院 - 財務金融研究所 Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年：	2018
畢業學年度：	106
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	55
中文關鍵詞：	拉丁美洲、資金流動、國際性因素、區域經濟因素
外文關鍵詞：	Latin America, Capital flow, Global factor, Country-specific factor
相關次數：	點閱：120 下載：5
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本文旨在研究國際資金流動在流向拉丁美洲國家，這些區域和國家已被充分討論。這些資金最主要為國際直接投資和其他銀行的投資金流所組成，其中我們想要探討那些因素會驅動國際資金在拉丁美洲國家的流動，無論是資金流入或是資金流出的部分。我們分為國際性要素及區域經濟本身的結構來討論，我們發現在國際性因素底下美國的十年期公債殖利率和國際風險趨避指標會造成資本流動，在區域經濟方面異國的資本帳戶開放程度以及機構的投資品質會是指標性的因素。除了分開考慮國際和區域因素我們還嘗試著把兩者結合一起討論，我們發現在綜合模型之下區域性因素的影響能力大過於國際性因素。也就是說國際投資金在考慮將資金投入拉丁美洲地區時會以一國的對於外來資本的接受程度以及投資品質作為主要考量其次才會將國際投資風險納入考量。
在對新興市場進行投資評估時，除了考量國際性投資偏好也要將當地經濟發展以及政府金融健全和投資環境納入考量。根據我們的研究結果顯示，一個良好且開放的投資制度以及對外來資金健全的投資帳戶管制才是最根本的要素。

The boom and bust capital flows to Latin America has received considerable amount attention: foreign direct investment and bank flows to the region and countries’ have been well-documented. This paper aims to examine what the capital flows will flow to Latin America and what are the determining factor. We find that U.S interest rate could and global risk aversion index be key drivers on determinant the regional capital flow while countries own attitude toward foreign capital and instructional quality will also have impact on determine the capital flow to Latin America. We use global factor and country-specific regression model and panel estimation to examine the factor impact on selected countries and region. When we consider both global and country-specific factor, the country’s own characteristic have more explanatory power over global factor.

CONTENTS

中文摘要.............II
ABSTRACT............III
致謝.................IV
LIST OF TABLES.......VI
LIST OF FIGURE......VII
INTRODUCTION..........1
LITERATURE REVIEW.......4
DATA AND DESCRIPTIVES....8
METHODLOGY AND EMPIRICAL RESEARCH.......24
CONCLUSION........53
REFERENCE.........54






LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. The role of global factors in explaining Latin American capital inflows.............27
Table 2. The role of global factors in explaining Latin American capital outflows...........28
Table 3. The role of global factors in explaining Latin American net capital flows..........29
Table 4. The role of country-specific factors in explaining Latin American capital inflows.......33
Table 5. The role of country-specific factors in explaining Latin American capital outflows......34
Table 6. The role of country-specific factors in explaining Latin American net capital flows.....35
Table 7. The role of country-specific and global factors in explaining Latin American capital inflows....37
Table 8. The role of country-specific and global factors in explaining Latin American capital outflows....38
Table 9. The role of global and country-specific factors in explaining Latin American net capital flows...39
Table 10. The role of global factors in explaining Latin American capital inflows.........42
Table 11. The role of global factors in explaining Latin American capital outflows........43
Table 12. The role of global factors in explaining Latin American capital net flows.......44
Table 13. The role of country-specific factors in explaining Latin American capital inflows.......47
Table 14. The role of country-specific factors in explaining Latin America capital outflows.......48
Table 15. The role of country-specific factors in explaining Latin American net capital flows.....49
Table 16. The role of country-specific and global factors in explaining Latin American capital inflows.....50
Table 17. The role of country-specific and global factors in explaining Latin American capital outflows....51
Table 18. The role of country-specific and global factors in explaining Latin American net capital flows...52


LIST OF FIGURE
Figure 1. A brief view of economic and balance of payment condition in Latin American countries...........9
Nominal GDP（Billions of US dollar）......10
Real GDP growth rate（Annually）..........11
Current account balance（Percent of GDP）........12
Figure 2. Capital inflows and outflows (Percent of GDP).........12
Capital inflows..........13
Capital outflows.........13
Figure 3. Net equity and debt positions (Percent of GDP)............14
Net equity positions.....14
Net debt positions.......15
Figure 4. Capital inflows and outflows by type of flows (Percent of GDP).........15
FDI inflows.......16
FDI outflow.......16
Portfolio equity inflows.......17
Portfolio equity outflows......17
Portfolio debt inflows.......18
Portfolio debt outflows......18
Figure 5. Equity and reserves shares（Percent）....19
Equity share in assets.............19
Equity share in liabilities........20
Reserve share..............20
Figure 6. External positions in Latin America region, 2011.......................21
Assets（Percent of GDP）............22
Liabilities（Percent of GDP）........22
Equity and reserve shares............22
Net positions（Percent of GDP）......23
Panel 1. Latin America countries real GDP growth rate.......................25
Panel 2. U.S. real GDP growth and 10 year treasury yields compare....................25





                                    

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校內：2023-01-02公開
校外：2023-01-02公開

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