近年來金融市場一直持續低迷且不穩狀態，如歐債事件與美國 2008 年以來的雷曼兄弟破產、財政懸崖與貨幣寬鬆政策等都一一對全球金融市場有重大衝擊，2014 年以來歐洲央行也緊接著打算實行貨幣寬鬆政策，同時烏克蘭與俄羅斯所爆發的能源危機與中國及越南引發的排華效應可能又為全球經濟帶來更多不確定性。適逢在這個不穩定的金融市場也因此許多投資人慣性地將某些指標視為投資股票的參考準則，如上述的金融事件，更將黃金價格、原油價格與美股走向視為預測股市的評估方法。但是，這些指標卻可能不是一定準確，甚至有時可能因市場的過度反應而造成偏差。
雖然 2014 年普遍學者對台灣的表現持樂觀態度，但實際經濟發展往往受限於各大經濟體。實際上，除了台灣之外許多國家的經濟發展也與其他經濟體有重大關聯，因此許多國家莫不積極尋找貿易夥伴或加入自由貿易區希望藉由國際貿易提振國家經濟。長久以來台灣對於貿易合約的訂定一直持不同看法，部分學者認為貿易合約在國家經濟發展上扮演重要角色；同時有些學者也持反對看法。
有鑑於此，本文致力於探討實際影響台灣股票市場的事件或指標，以及貿易合約或自由貿易區的形成是否對台灣造成威脅並具有排擠效應。希望藉此實證分析能提供投資者一份可靠的指標，以利未來的投資。
經由 2001 年至 2012 年的實證研究後，發現常見的參考指標如:黃金價格、原油價格與美國量化寬鬆等皆對台灣股市無顯著影響。相較之下，美股指數是一個較值得參考的指標；同時藉由實證發現，其他國家的金融危機或貿易合約會對台灣帶來衝擊。

Recently the financial markets have been suffering from depression and uncertainties. For example, the European Debt Crisis and the series of events in the U.S. after 2008 all led to epidemic shocks to the financial markets worldwide. In 2014, the Quantitative Easing monetary policy implemented by European Central Bank, the resources crisis caused by Russia and Ukraine and the effects of Chinese Exclusion led the conflicts between China and Vietnam will definitely raise the risks and uncertainties to the financial markets. Considering some indicators as golden rules in this unstable environment, many investors sometimes fail to estimate the wrong information resulted from the overreactions in the markets.
Predicted to have good performances and developments in 2014, Taiwan is actually affected by the other economies. Indeed, apart from Taiwan, there are the same problems for the other counties as well. As a result, every country seeks for trade partners and signs the trade agreements aggressively in order to boost the development of economy.
Consequently, this research aims to estimate the factors or events which affect the stock markets in Taiwan directly and investigate the negative effects of the trade agreements which exclude Taiwan. Hopefully, the empirical results can offer some reliable information to the investors.
With the empirical results from 2001 to 2012, we found that the indicators like gold price, oil price and the implementation of US QE are not significant . Compared with these indexes, the US stock price is a reliable indicator. Meanwhile, we also proved that the financial crisis and trade agreement bring influences on the stock prices of Taiwan.

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