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研究生: 周漢威
Chou, Han-Wang
論文名稱: API-581之失效機率分析於石化廠中下游實務應用
The API-581 Probability of Failure Analysis in Midstream and Downstream of Petrochemical Plants Practice Applied
指導教授: 蔡明田
Tsai, Ming-Tian
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 工程管理碩士在職專班
Engineering Management Graduate Program(on-the-job class)
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 35
中文關鍵詞: 風險基準檢查量化風險分析失效可能性腐蝕裂化機制損傷因子
外文關鍵詞: RBI, Quantitative Risk Analysis, Probability of Failure, Corrosion Deterioration Mechanism, Damage Factor
相關次數: 點閱:111下載:25
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  • 風險基準檢查(RBI)是一門實務性的科學,以風險管理的角度來將石化廠的資源做更有效的分配,其中以API-581作為量化風險方法的標準,已逐漸被國內多數大型石化廠所接受,且近幾年來也有些應用的案例;在實際應用的同時,所面臨執行層面上的困難也將逐一浮現。RBI所關注之失效機率是由材料腐蝕裂化機制所引起的洩漏,且其失效機率會隨時間成長,而本文將探討在執行整廠(工場)RBI時,當多數設備沒有明顯的腐蝕劣化跡象,在某些設計條件之下(主要是由操作壓力、內徑與厚度所影響),量化計算的結果將會與實務經驗的判斷有些差異。
    此項問題目前發現是在石化產業的中下游工廠發生的機會較高,由於中下游產業的內容物較不具腐蝕性,面臨的腐蝕裂化機制較為單純,因此沒有明顯腐蝕裂化機制的設備數量將會較中上游的工廠來的多。而這類設備在進行RBI分析時,部分會因設計因素的影響,造成損傷因子(Df)的計算結果可能會高於其他需要被關注的設備,而在進行整廠性的風險評估時,會造成檢查資源分配效益不佳的情況產生,以及具有潛在風險的設備可能會被掩蓋。
    根據過去實際執行的案例發現,這類的情況越來越多。本文將針對此現象,進行案例與發生原因探討,同時提出可行的解決方法供參考應用。

    With more and more cases of API-581 practical applied, the problems are also emerging raise up. RBI is concerned with leaks caused by corrosion deterioration of material, and the probability of failure will grow over time. When there’s no any obvious signs of corrosion and deterioration on equipment, under some design conditions (mainly affected by operating pressure, inner diameter and thickness), the results of quantitative calculations will be somewhat different with the judgments of practical experience.
    Especially in the mid-downstream petrochemical industry, the contents are less corrosive, and the corrosion mechanism is relatively simple, so the number of equipment without obvious corrosion mechanism will be more than the mid-upstream factories. However, when performing RBI analysis on such equipment without obvious signs of corrosion, partly due to design factors, the calculation result of the damage factor (Df) may be higher than that of other equipment that needs focus. In a plant risk assessment, it will lead to poor efficiency in the allocation of inspection resources. This article will discuss this phenomenon, and propose feasible solutions for reference and application.

    中文摘要 I Extended Abstract II 誌謝 VI 目錄 VII 表目錄 IX 圖目錄 X 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 3 1.3 研究方法 4 1.4 研究範圍 6 第二章 文獻回顧與案例探討 7 2.1 RBI發展史 7 2.2 API-581對肥粒鐵系(Ferritic)在失效機率量化公式介紹 8 2.2.1 API-581對肥粒鐵系(Ferritic)在失效機率量化公式介紹 8 2.2.2 公式內變數的所代表之涵義(Nomenclature) 12 2.3 API-581對於奧斯田鐵系不銹鋼(Austenitic)在失效機率量化公式介紹 14 2.3.1 API-581對奧斯田鐵系失效機率量化公式介紹 14 2.3.2 公式內變數的所代表之涵義(Nomenclature) 17 2.4 油漆與保溫對於腐蝕的影響 18 2.4.1 油漆(Coating)對於碳鋼與不銹鋼的影響 18 2.4.2 保溫層(Insulation)對於碳鋼與不銹鋼的影響 19 第三章 實際運作的問題與分析 20 3.1 RBI在實際運作面的困難 20 3.1.1執行層面遭遇的實際困難 20 3.1.2 在完整執行RBI後依舊會有無法降低的失效機率 22 3.2 案例分析 23 3.2.1 設備特性分析 23 3.2.2 不會腐蝕的設備特性在RBI評估內造成的影響 25 3.3 腐蝕率為0之最終常數公式推導 26 第四章 實際運作問題的改善 28 4.1 將所有設備天生的失效機率去除 28 4.2將沒有腐蝕率的設備排除 29 4.2.1 將沒有腐蝕率的設備排除 29 4.2.2 將沒有腐蝕率的設備且PD/t < 2.12的設備篩選出來 30 4.3 快篩方程式公式推導 31 第五章 結論與建議 33 5.1 結論 33 5.2 未來研究方向的建議 34 參考文獻 35

    1. Fire Protection Guide to Hazardous Materials, 2010 Edition 1st Edition.
    2. API, “Damage Mechanisms Affecting Fixed Equipment in the Refining Industry”, API recommended practice 571 second edition, April 2011.
    3. API, “Management of Process Hazards”, API recommended practice 750 first edition, January 1990.
    4. API-580,“Risk-based Inspection”, API recommended practice 580 third edition, February 2016.
    5. API, “Risk-based Inspection Methodology”, API recommended practice 581 third edition, April 2016.
    6. API-579, “Fitness-For-Service”, API 579-1/ASME FFS-1, June 2016.
    7. DNV GL, SynergiTM OnShore RBI version 5.5, October 2018.
    8. DNV GL,“Risk based management of corrosion under insulation”, DNV GL RP G109, December 2019.
    9. Large property losses in the HC-chemical ind., a 30 year review,14th edition, M&M Protection Consultants,1992.
    10. API-1104, “Welding of Pipelines and Related Facilities”, API standard 1104 twenty-first edition, September 2013
    11. API-510, ” Pressure Vessel Inspection Code: Maintenance Inspection, Rating, Repair, and Alteration” , API 510 eighth edition, June 1997 Addendum 4, August 2003
    12. API-570, “Piping Inspection Code:Inspection, Repair, Alteration, and Rerating of In-service Piping Systems”, API 570 second edition, October 1998, addendum 2, December 2001
    13. API-653, “Tank Inspection, Repair, Alteration, and Reconstruction”, API standard 653 second edition, December 1995, Addendum 4, December 1999
    14 ASME SECTION V, “Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Nondestructive Examination ”, 2017 edition
    15 API-650, “Welded Steel Tanks for Oil Storage”, API standard 650 tenth edition, November 1998, Addendum 2, 2001
    16 ASME SECTION VIII, “Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Rules For Construction Of Pressure Vessels”, 2017 edition

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