隨著全球對再生能源需求的增加，尤其是在能源轉型與減碳的全球趨勢下，離岸風電成為了臺灣等地理空間受限地區的重要能源選擇。本研究針對2030年與2031年臺灣離岸風電進行風能削減評估，研析風電引接地區的輸電線壅塞情況，以利擬定策略提高電網的穩定性與再生能源運用效率。藉由PLEXOS模擬軟體與PTDF分析，並結合N-1蒙地卡羅模擬方法，研究結果顯示，透過風能削減率與風險率的計算可以得知某些特定區域的輸電線需要擴充或擬定舒緩電網壅塞的策略。這些結論為未來臺灣及其他類似地區的離岸風電規劃與管理具有重要的實務與政策參考價值。

With the rising demand for renewable energy, especially amid the global trend towards energy transition and carbon reduction, offshore wind power has become a crucial energy option for areas with limited geographical space, such as Taiwan. This study assesses wind energy curtailment for Taiwan's offshore wind power in 2030 and 2031, analyzing transmission line congestion in areas where wind power is connected. The findings aim to help develop strategies to enhance grid stability and improve the utilization of renewable energy. In this research, PLEXOS simulation software combined with PTDF and N-1 Monte Carlo simulation methods were utilized to calculate wind energy curtailment rates and risks. The two indexes can pinpoint specific areas where the transmission lines need expansion or the strategies are required to alleviate grid congestion. These conclusions hold significant practical and policy relevance for the future planning and operation of the offshore wind power in Taiwan and other similar regions.

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