颱風由於風場結構複雜波浪瞬息萬變，在颱風來臨時海面可能由風平浪靜的狀態下，在數小時後波浪急遽增大至五六米的大浪，此一現象將嚴重危害沿岸居民的生命安全，因此如果我們能有效的預報颱風波浪將可以減少颱風波浪引起的災害。目前波浪預報是以預報的海面風場輸入波浪預報模式中進行波浪推算。由於預報颱風風場一般施工單位取得不易，導致颱風波浪預報時遭遇有許多瓶頸，故本研究將採用客觀分析預報法提供一個簡便的颱風波浪預報方法。
颱風波浪客觀分析預報法，是利用大量的歷史颱風波浪資訊，統計歸納颱風在不同位置上時預報海域的波浪特性，藉由這些統計資料以預報颱風波浪；本研究中對於波浪資料的取得乃藉由波浪模式推算海面波浪以提供客觀分析預報時的歷史颱風波浪資訊。
前人對颱風波浪特性的研究顯示，颱風來臨前海面上的湧浪成份佔有相當的比例，且颱風是一快速移動風場，故在模式的選擇上採用Wen(1999)所提出的混合波浪模式進行颱風期間的波浪推算；於其理論中提及該模式對此兩種特性皆有不錯的表現。波浪模式推算波浪的能量來自於風，本文採用李(1993)基於艾克曼動力理論，利用海面氣壓場計算得到海面十米的風場，氣壓場以中央氣象局提供颱風時刻12小時一筆的海面氣壓資料進行風場計算，然以此時間間距推算颱風波浪無法表現颱風波浪的特性，故需內插出較小時間間距的海面氣壓，以往的線性內插法將使內插出來的海面氣壓場出現兩個颱風中心的不合理的現象，本研究提出移動線性內插法(Shifting liner Interpolation)，經本文比較也發現此內插方法改進了以往線性內插的不合理現象。其後將內插出氣壓場轉成海面十米的風場進行波浪推算，以提供客觀分析預報所需的大量歷史颱風波浪資料，並將統計之颱風資料繪製成平均波高比值圖、最大波高比值圖以提供颱風定量波浪預報之用。

The Objective Analysis, which is widely implemented in routine weather forecsting, is utilized in present study to predict typhoon waves around Taiwan. In order to establish the statistical model, large amount information of historical typhoon waves, which were obtained by observations and numerical model simulations, have been adopted.
Due to the following facts that the typhoon wind fields features the nature of highly temporal and spatial variation, and that the typhoon wave filed is largely influenced by the evolution of typhoon swells, the Hybrid Wave Model proposed by Wen(1999) is utilized in present study to simulate the typhoon waves. Concerning to the input of the wave model, the predicted wind field is calculated using Lee(1993)’s formula, which were derived based on Ekman theory. The predicted wind direction and wind speed at the elevation of 10 m could thus be estimated from the forecasting barometric field, which is provided by Central Weather Bureau every twelve hours.
As the barometric data issued with time interval of 12 hours, details of the fast moving typhoon might not be conserved. For the sake to obtain accurate interpolation of barometric for single hour estimation, an new interpolation method is proposed in present study. The method entitled as Shift Linear Interpolation, is proved to be capable of eliminating the unreasonable results of using tradictional linear interpolation, such as the appearance of two typhoon eyes. Finally, the statistical model established using objective analysis is validated by observed typhoon wave. The results demonstrate the effective of present model.
The present typhoon wave forecasting model is easy to be implemented. It is useful for engineering applications when there is no numerical wind field available and providing typhoon wave forecast for a specific site in the offshore or coastal regions is necessary.

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