簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 吳秉憲
Wu, Ping-Hsien
論文名稱: 總體經濟、銀行特徵與銀行貸款行為之關聯
The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Conditions, Bank Characteristics, and Bank Lending Behavior
指導教授: 吳思蓉
Wu, Szu-Jung
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所碩士在職專班
Graduate Institute of Finance (on the job class)
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 52
中文關鍵詞: 貸款行為總體經濟銀行特徵
外文關鍵詞: lending behavior, macroeconomic, banking characteristics
相關次數: 點閱:301下載:15
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 本研究目的於探討總體經濟狀況和銀行體質特徵不同與銀行貸款行為之間的關聯性。本研究以2010至2023年6月共54個季度,與規模前30大之銀行特徵為樣本,並加入總體經濟之變數透過OLS方式做實證研究,結果發現銀行貸款成長率和承辦貸款的主軸種類,確實會因總體經濟因素與銀行特徵而有所不同。總體經濟變數中以實質有效匯率和貸款行為較具關聯性,而銀行特徵中則是資本適足率和逾放比,當總體經濟和銀行特徵同時納入考量後,總體經濟變數的影響性則會變為不顯著,表示銀行體質特徵與銀行貸款行為的相關性更為顯著。此外,本研究亦發現在多數期間和貸款行為有所關聯性之變數,皆為銀行風險管理能力的指標,因此投資人可透過風險管理指標找出在貸款舉措上可能表現較良好或穩定的投資標的,然而在持續降息的貨幣寬鬆政策期間,和貸款行為有所關聯之指標除了風險管理能力外,更需要考量銀行的資本實力、盈利水平和銀行對於未來市場的展望。

    The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and bank characteristic and their bank lending behavior. The study uses data from 54 quarters spanning from 2010 to June 2023, with a sample comprising the top 30 banks based on size, and employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression for empirical analysis. The results show that bank lending growth and the primary types of loans are indeed influenced by both macroeconomic factors and banking characteristics. Among the macroeconomic factors, the real effective exchange rate and lending behavior have the most significant correlation. Regarding banking characteristics, capital adequacy ratio and non-performing loan ratio are the most significant. However, when both macroeconomic factors and banking characteristics are simultaneously considered, the relevance of macroeconomic variables becomes insignificant; suggesting that bank lending behavior is more correlated with banking characteristics than with macroeconomic factors. Additionally, the study reveals that the variables showing correlation with lending behavior over multiple periods are mostly indicators of banks' risk management capabilities. Therefore, investors can identify potential investments that may perform better or be more stable in loan measures through risk management indicators. However, during periods of prolonged interest rate cuts and loose monetary policy, the correlated indicators with lending behavior also encompass bank capital strength, profit levels, and banks' outlook on future markets.

    摘要 I Extended Abstract II 致謝 VII 目錄 VIII 表目錄 IX 圖目錄 IX 第一章 緒論 1 第二章 文獻探討 4 第三章 研究方法 6 第一節 樣本篩選及樣本分布 6 第二節 研究模型與變數 7 第四章 實證結果與分析 13 第一節 敘述性統計 13 第二節 相關性分析 15 第三節 迴歸實證分析 17 第五章 結論與建議 37 參考文獻 38

    中華民國中央銀行全球資訊網;https://www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/mp-1.html
    中華民國統計資訊網:https://www.stat.gov.tw/Default.aspx
    國家發展委員會:https://www.ndc.gov.tw/
    金融監督管理委員會:https://www.fsc.gov.tw/ch/index.jsp
    TEJ台灣經濟新報:https://www.tejwin.com/
    王格非 (2006),台灣銀行業獲利成因之分析,台灣銀行業獲利成因之分析,天主教輔仁大學金融研究所在職專班碩士論文。
    利秀蘭與陳惠薇(2005),台灣景氣領先及同時變數之探討,國家發展委員會經濟研究期刊第五期,頁27-53。
    林金龍(2003),利率政策的傳遞機制及其對總體經濟金融影響效果之實證分析,中央銀行季刊,第25卷第1期,頁5-48。
    林左裕與賴郁媛(2005),我國銀行業逾放比與總體經濟因素間關係之研究,商管科技季刊,第6卷第1期,頁165-179。
    林建甫(2006),台灣總體經濟金融模型之建立,中央銀行季刊,第28卷第1期,頁5–41。
    陳椿鶯(2008),銀行業資產品質與經營績效關聯性之研究,逢甲大學會計學系碩士論文。
    陳昭佑 (2017),銀行業獲利因素之研究,國立台灣大學經濟學系在職專班碩士論文。
    陳志銘(2021),臺灣銀行業CAMELS指標影響因素之研究,國立台灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
    張麗娟與李育真(2011),本國銀行風險管理與財務危機對財務績效之影響,臺灣銀行季刊,第62卷第1期。
    張天惠與朱浩榜(2016),台灣貨幣政策執行及傳遞機制之探討,中央銀行季刊,第38卷第4期,頁11-41。
    張瑜庭(2021),本國銀行之銀行放款通道與貨幣傳導分析,國立清華大學經濟系碩士論文。
    馮惠珊與余惠芳(2010),貨幣供給對台灣所得利率物價匯率關聯性之研究,華人經濟研究,第8卷第1期,頁91-103。
    馮惠珊、余惠芳與高偉娟(2013),台灣重貼現率對所得利率物價匯率關聯性之探討,華人前瞻研究,第9卷第1期,頁1-14。
    程采晴(2012),總體經濟對台灣房價非線性影響之研究,淡江大學財務金融學系碩士論文。
    黃彥翔(2013),臺灣銀行業獲利因子之分析-策略乎? 環境乎?,東吳大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
    黃郁娟(2017),央行貨幣政策對台灣銀行業獲利能力之影響,國立成功大學財務金融所在職專班碩士論文。
    黃朝熙、謝依珊、楊茜文、王敬淳(2021),銀行放款組合與貨幣傳遞機制:台灣的實證研究,經濟論文叢刊,第49卷第3期,頁415-448。
    單吉祥(2020),低利率環境下銀行之經營績效與風險承擔-本國銀行的實證研究,國立中央大學財務金融所在職專班碩士論文。
    劉欣姿(2013),領先指標預測能力之研究,國家發展委員會經濟研究期刊,第13期,頁79-108。
    蕭睿質(2014),不動產指數、景氣對策指標與銀行業逾期放款之動態關聯性,國立中正大學財務金融學系碩士論文。
    鄧宇文(2020),探討期間利差、領先指標與同時指標對台灣景氣衰退機率預測能力-Probit模型應用,國立政治大學經濟學系碩士論文。
    鍾經樊與詹維玲(2008),台灣總體經濟與金融穩定之實證研究,中央銀行季刊,第30卷第2期,頁15-44。
    羅文綺(2012),商業銀行經營環境影響研究,國立中央大學財務金融所博士論文。
    Allen, L., & Saunders, A. (1986). The large-small bank dichotomy in the federal funds market. Journal of Banking & Finance, 10(2), 219-230.
    Astley, M. S., & Garratt, A. (2000). Exchange rates and prices: sources of sterling real exchange rate fluctuations 1973–94. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62(4), 491-509.
    Athanasoglou, P. P., Brissimis, S. N., & Delis, M. D. (2008). Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability. Journal of international financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 18(2), 121-136.
    Altunbas, Y., Gambacorta, L., & Marques-Ibanez, D. (2010). Does monetary policy affect bank risk-taking?.
    Berger, A. N., & Udell, G. F. (1995). Relationship Lending and Lines of Credit in Small Firm Finance. Journal of Business, 68(3), 351–381.
    Berger, A. N., & Udell, G. F. (2004). The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior. Journal of financial intermediation, 13(4), 458-495.
    Berger, A. N., & Bouwman, C. H. (2013). How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?. Journal of financial economics, 109(1), 146-176.
    DeYoung, R., & Roland, K. P. (2001). Product mix and earnings volatility at commercial banks: Evidence from a degree of total leverage model. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 10(1), 54-84.
    Dietrich, A., & Wanzenried, G. (2011). Determinants of bank profitability before and during the crisis: Evidence from Switzerland. Journal of international financial markets, institutions and money, 21(3), 307-327.
    Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. J. (1965). Money and business cycles. In The state of monetary economics (pp. 32-78). NBER.
    Ho, T. S., & Saunders, A. (1981). The determinants of bank interest margins: theory and empirical evidence. Journal of Financial and Quantitative analysis, 16(4), 581-600.
    Hoggarth, G., Reis, R., & Saporta, V. (2002). Costs of banking system instability some empirical evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 26(5), 825-855.
    Huang, C. H., & Yu, L. H. (2015). Bank Lending Behavior and a Credit Channel in Monetary Transmission: Evidence from Taiwan. 經濟論文叢刊, 43(2), 219-242.
    Jiménez, G., Salas, V., & Saurina, J. (2006). Determinants of Collateral. Journal of Financial Economics, 81(2), 255–281.
    Jiménez, G., Ongena, S., Peydró, J. L., & Saurina, J. (2014). Hazardous times for monetary policy: What do twenty‐three million bank loans say about the effects of monetary policy on credit risk‐taking?. Econometrica, 82(2), 463-505.
    Kashyap, A. K., Stein, J. C., & Wilcox, D. W. (1992).Monetary policy and credit conditions: Evidence from the composition of external finance.
    Kashyap, A. K., & Stein, J. C. (1995). The impact of monetary policy on bank balance sheets. In Carnegie-rochester conference series on public policy (Vol. 42, pp. 151-195). North-Holland.
    Kishan, R. P., & Opiela, T. P. (2000). Bank size, bank capital, and the bank lending channel. Journal of Money, credit and banking, 121-141.
    Kashyap, A. K., & Stein, J. C. (2000). What do a million observations on banks say about the transmission of monetary policy?. American Economic Review, 90(3), 407-428.
    Maudos, J., & De Guevara, J. F. (2004). Factors explaining the interest margin in the banking sectors of the European Union. Journal of Banking & Finance, 28(9), 2259-2281.
    Mishkin, F. S. (2007). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets. Pearson education.
    Peek, J., & Rosengren, E. (1995). The capital crunch Neither a borrower nor a lender be. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27(3), 625-638.
    Peek, J., & Rosengren, E. S. (2005). Unnatural selection: Perverse incentives and the misallocation of credit in Japan. American Economic Review, 95(4), 1144-1166.

    下載圖示 校內:立即公開
    校外:立即公開
    QR CODE