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研究生： 金語智
Kwanairara, Jockim
論文名稱： 運用參與式地理資訊系統（PGIS）與模糊層級分析法（FAHP）評估颱風引發之洪水風險：以臺南市西寮里為例
Assessing Typhoon-Induced Flood Risks Using a Participatory Geographic Information System (PGIS) and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP): A Case Study of Xiliao Village, Tainan City, Taiwan
指導教授： 哈里森約翰
Harrison, John
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 工學院 - 自然災害減災及管理國際碩士學位學程
International Master Program on Natural Hazards Mitigation and Management
論文出版年： 2026
畢業學年度： 114
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 156
中文關鍵詞： 颱風引發洪水 、災害與暴露度 、PGIS 、FAHP 、社區洪水風險
外文關鍵詞： Typhoon-induced flood, hazard and exposure, PGIS, FAHP, community flood risks
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    • 熱帶氣旋引發的洪水是全球最具破壞性的自然災害之一,對沿海社區構成威脅。台灣位於西太平洋颱風帶內,由於颱風頻繁、鄰近台灣海峽、沿海地形平坦及人口密度高,特別容易受到影響。本研究採用參與式地理資訊系統(PGIS)和模糊層級分析法(FAHP)評估颱風引發的洪水風險,聚焦於台灣台南市七股區西寮里的災害與暴露度分析。前期研究透過半結構式訪談25位利害關係人,識別出颱風造成的主要災害及七股區受影響最嚴重的村落。PGIS邀請12位當地參與者劃定因豪雨和風暴潮造成的淹水區域,而FAHP整合四位專家的專業知識,透過成對比較矩陣決定影響因子。研究結果顯示嚴重的洪水風險,降雨淹水影響72.33%的村落面積,其中62.72%被歸類為高至極高危害區。風暴潮影響17.07%的面積,16.63%被歸類為高至極高危害,主要影響西部沿海地區。FAHP分析顯示豪雨(39.6%)和風暴潮(28.5%)是主要災害因子,高程(14.2%)、坡度(10.2%)、地層下陷和海平面上升分別貢獻4.1%和3%。養殖區是暴露度最高的要素,占研究區域76.7%,具有最高的FAHP權重(48.3%),其次為建築物(31.9%)、關鍵基礎設施(12.6%)和裸露地(7.3%)。整合評估發現豪雨和風暴潮威脅養殖設施,並對鄰近住宅區造成連鎖風險,因為維持約75%蓄水量的養殖池在颱風期間容易潰堤。風險分級透過四位社區成員的參與式評估及Sentinel-2 NDWI進行驗證,與本研究的風險評估達成高度一致。研究結果顯示參與式方法能有效識別社區洪水風險,並提供可複製的架構供脆弱沿海社區進行洪水風險評估。

    Tropical cyclone-induced floods are among the most devastating natural disasters globally, threatening coastal communities. Taiwan, located within the western Pacific typhoon belt, is particularly vulnerable due to frequent typhoons, proximity to the Taiwan Strait, flat coastal topography, and high population density. This study employed the Participatory Geographic Information System (PGIS) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to assess typhoon-induced flood risk, focusing on hazard and exposure components, in Xiliao Village, Tainan City, Taiwan. A preliminary study involving 25 stakeholders through semi-structured interviews identified major typhoon-generated disasters and the most impacted village in Qigu District. PGIS engaged 12 local participants in delineating flood-prone areas from torrential rainfall and storm surge, while FAHP integrated expertise from four specialists to determine influential factors through pairwise comparison matrices. Results revealed severe flood risk, with rainfall flooding affecting 72.33% of the village area and 62.72% classified as high to very high hazard zones. Storm surge affected 17.07% of the area, with 16.63% categorized as high to very high hazard, predominantly affecting western coastal regions. FAHP analysis identified torrential rainfall (39.6%) and storm surge (28.5%) as dominant hazard factors, elevation (14.6%), slope (10.2%), land subsidence and sea-level rise contributed 4.1% and 3%, respectively. Aquaculture zones were the most exposed element, occupying 76.7% of the study area with the highest FAHP weight (48.3%), followed by buildings (31.9%), critical infrastructure (12.6%), and exposed land (7.3%). The integrated assessment identified that torrential rainfall and storm surge threaten aquaculture facilities and create cascading risks to nearby residential areas, as aquaculture ponds maintained about 75% capacity are easily overwhelmed during typhoon events. Risk classification was validated through participatory assessment involving four community members and Sentinel-2 NDWI, achieving strong agreement with this study's risk assessment. The findings demonstrate that participatory approaches can effectively identify community flood risks and offer a replicable framework for flood risk assessment in vulnerable coastal communities.

    摘要 4 ABSTRACT 6 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 8 TABLE OF CONTENTS 10 LIST OF TABLES 13 LIST OF FIGURES 14 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 17 1.1 Background information and Context 17 1.2 Problem Statement 18 1.3 Research Objectives and Questions 18 1.4 The Scope of this Study 19 1.4.1 Geographic Scope 19 1.4.2 Temporal Scope 20 1.4.3 Methodology Scope 20 1.4.4 Thematic Scope 20 1.4.5 Validation of Risk Assessment Outputs 21 1.5 The Significance of this Study 21 1.5.1 Contribution to Coastal Disaster Studies 21 1.5.2 Methodology Tools 22 1.5.3 Potential Policy and Planning Applications 22 1.5.4 Improvement of Community Resilience 23 1.5.5 Scientific Knowledge and Climate Change Adaptation 23 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 24 2.1 Purpose and Scope 24 2.2 Global and Regional Context 24 2.3 A Historical Outlook of Typhoon Events in Taiwan 25 2.4 The Outlook of Taiwan’s Future Climate Projection 31 2.5 Flood Risk Assessment Framework 33 2.6 Community Participatory in Risk Assessment 34 2.6.1 Community and Subaltern Knowledge for Climate Adaptation 34 2.6.2 Community Participatory Mapping 35 2.7 Assigning Weights to Flood Indicators 37 2.8 Integration of GIS and AHP-FAHP Framework 39 2.8.1 GIS-AHP Integration 39 2.8.2 GIS-FAHP Integration 40 2.9 Community Validation of GIS Data 42 2.10 Research Gaps and Rationale 43 CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 45 3.1. Preliminary Study 47 3.1.1 Study Area 50 3.2 PGIS and Field Study 54 3.3 Hazard and Exposure Assessment 62 3.3.3 Application of FAHP for Hazard and Exposure Assessment 69 3.3.4 Expert Panel for FAHP Implementation 70 3.3.4 Fuzzy AHP Evaluation Process 71 3.3.5 Fuzzy AHP Weight Calculation Procedure 73 3.4 Risk Assessment 74 3.5 Validation Loop 75 3.5.1 Community-Based: Participatory Risk Assessment 75 3.5.2 Sentinel-2 L2A: NDWI 76 3.6 Data Sources 76 CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 78 4.1 Preliminary Study Outcomes 78 4.2 Hazard Assessment 78 4.2.1 Typhoon-Induced Rainfall Flood Extent in Xiliao Village 78 4.2.2 Spatial Distribution of Storm surge Flood Hazard during Typhoon Events 84 4.2.3 Xiliao Village Elevation Evaluation 90 4.2.4 Xiliao Village Slope Evaluation 92 4.2.5 FAHP Weighting for Hazard Indicators 94 4.3 Exposure Assessment 96 4.3.1 Spatial Distribution of the Exposure Assessment Elements 96 4.3.2 Categorization of exposure elements into assessment indicators 101 4.3.3 FAHP Evaluation of Exposure Assessment 104 4.4 Risk Assessment: Socioeconomic Assets 109 4.4.1 Aquaculture Zone Evaluation 110 4.4.2 Buildings Evaluation 113 4.4.2 Infrastructure Evaluation 116 4.4.2 Slope and Elevation Risk Evaluation 120 4.5 Risk Assessment Validation Loop 121 4.5.1 PRA Validation: Outcomes and Limitations 121 4.5.2 Sentinel-2 NDWI Validation: Outcomes and Limitations 121 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION 124 5.1 Summary of Key Findings 124 5.2 Policy and Planning Implications 126 5.3 Limitations and Future Research Directions 127 5.4 Closing Remarks 128 REFERENCES 130 Appendix A Preliminary Interview Survey Questions 143 A.1 Preliminary Study 143 Appendix B PGIS Survey 146 B.1 PGIS Survey 146 Appendix C Calculation of FAHP Weights for Hazard Assessment 149 Appendix D Calculation of FAHP Weights for Exposure Assessment 154

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