在互聯網蓬勃發展的世代，供應商提供多元產品以及資訊流通快速讓消費者得以接觸比以往更多的產品，使得大部分的產品都是屬於「暢銷產品」以外的「長尾產品」。過去已許多學者探討造成長尾現象的影響因素，亦有許多學者探討影響產品起飛的關鍵因素，但卻未有研究將長尾理論及產品起飛的研究合併探討。如何使這些長尾產品於上市之後快速的起飛是一個重要的課題。再者，過去探討新產品起飛的主題大多是探討歐美國家總體環境面的新產品起飛因素，缺乏以企業的視角進行研究。為了銜接和延續過去學術上相關研究的缺口，本研究整合過去產品起飛的關鍵因素及長尾理論，提出適用於企業之長尾產品的判斷標準，以台灣的企業作為研究對象，將焦點轉向研究消費者行為，探討影響長尾產品起飛點的關鍵要素。
本研究以台灣某間專業嬰幼童零售商I公司為研究樣本，蒐集2200多萬筆從2012年到2015年的交易訂單資料及相關公開資訊，分別以顧客忠誠度、創新能力、廣告效應、促銷活動及媒體效應為自變數，探討影響長尾產品起飛的關鍵要素。經由統計軟體R Studio進行一系列的檢定分析，並由逐步迴歸模型-向後刪去法建立最終模型。研究結果顯示：1、顧客忠誠度與長尾產品起飛成長率呈現正向顯著的影響；2、促銷活動與長尾產品起飛成長率呈現正向顯著的影響。本研究建議企業在針對長尾產品作行銷推廣時，應著重在提升顧客忠誠度與增加促銷活動，以期能夠提升產品起飛的成長率。

In the flourishing era of the Internet, suppliers provide multiple products and information flow quickly, which hence allows consumers to access more products nowadays. Such trend causes most of the products to be categorized as “long-tailed products” rather than “best-selling products”. Therefore, how to quickly get these long-tailed products to takeoff becomes a vital issue. This study integrates the theory of product takeoff and the theory of long tail, exploring the key factors affecting the growth rate of takeoff of long-tailed products. This study chooses a specialized retailer I as the research sample, collecting the trade order data and related public information around 22 million records from 2012 to 2015. This study takes customer loyalty, innovation ability, advertising effect, promotion and media effect as independent variables to exam the key drivers affecting growth rate of takeoff of the long tail products. This empirical analysis reveals that: (1) customer loyalty significantly positively impacts the growth rate of takeoff (2) promotion significantly positively impacts the growth rate of takeoff. This finding suggests that the enterprises should focus on improving customer loyalty and increasing promotional activities with a view to be able to enhance growth rate of takeoff of the long-tailed products.

Agarwal, R., & Bayus, B. L. (2002). The market evolution and sales takeoff of product innovations. Management Science, 48(8), 1024-1041.
Aghion, P., Howitt, P., & Prantl, S. (2015). Patent rights, product market reforms, and innovation. Journal of Economic Growth, 20(3), 223-262.
Alba, J. W., Mela, C. F., Shimp, T. A., & Urbany, J. E. (1999). The effect of discount frequency and depth on consumer price judgments. Journal of Consumer Research, 26(2), 99-114.
Anderson, C. (2006). The long tail: Why the future of business is selling less of more: Hachette Books.
Anderson, E. W., & Mittal, V. (2000). Strengthening the Satisfaction-Profit Chain. Journal of Service Research, 3(2), 107-120. doi: 10.1177/109467050032001
Andras, T. L., & Srinivasan, S. S. (2003). Advertising intensity and R&D intensity: Differences across industries and their impact on firm’s performance. International Journal of Business and Economics, 2(2), 81-90.
Aydinli, A., Bertini, M., & Lambrecht, A. (2014). Price Promotion for Emotional Impact. Journal of Marketing, 78(4), 80-96. doi: 10.1509/jm.12.0338
Bagwell, K. (2007). Chapter 28 The Economic Analysis of Advertising. In M. Armstrong & R. Porter (Eds.), Handbook of Industrial Organization (Vol. 3, pp. 1701-1844): Elsevier.
Bagwell, K., & Riordan, M. H. (1991). High and declining prices signal product quality. The American Economic Review, 224-239.
Basuroy, S., Chatterjee, S., & Ravid, S. A. (2003). How Critical Are Critical Reviews? The Box Office Effects of Film Critics, Star Power, and Budgets. Journal of Marketing, 67(4), 103-117. doi: 10.1509/jmkg.67.4.103.18692
Bayus, B. L., Kang, W., & Agarwal, R. (2007). Creating growth in new markets: A simultaneous model of firm entry and price. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 24(2), 139-155.
Bednar, M. K., Boivie, S., & Prince, N. R. (2013). Burr under the saddle: How media coverage influences strategic change. Organization Science, 24(3), 910-925.
Belderbos, R., Carree, M., & Lokshin, B. (2004). Cooperative R&D and firm performance. Research policy, 33(10), 1477-1492.
Bem, D. J. (1972). Self-Perception Theory11Development of self-perception theory was supported primarily by a grant from the National Science Foundation (GS 1452) awarded to the author during his tenure at Carnegie-Mellon University. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology (Vol. 6, pp. 1-62): Academic Press.
Berger, J., Sorensen, A. T., & Rasmussen, S. J. (2010). Positive Effects of Negative Publicity: When Negative Reviews Increase Sales. Marketing Science, 29(5), 815-827. doi: 10.1287/mksc.1090.0557
Bloom, N., & Van Reenen, J. (2002). Patents, real options and firm performance. The Economic Journal, 112(478), C97-C116.
Brynjolfsson, E., Hu, Y., & Simester, D. (2011). Goodbye pareto principle, hello long tail: The effect of search costs on the concentration of product sales. Management Science, 57(8), 1373-1386.
Brynjolfsson, E., Hu, Y., & Smith, M. D. (2010). Research commentary—long tails vs. superstars: The effect of information technology on product variety and sales concentration patterns. Information Systems Research, 21(4), 736-747.
Brynjolfsson, E., Hu, Y. J., & Smith, M. D. (2006). From niches to riches: Anatomy of the long tail.
Carrie M. Heilman, Kent Nakamoto, & Rao, A. G. (2002). Pleasant Surprises: Consumer Response to Unexpected In-Store Coupons. Journal of Marketing Research, 39(2), 242-252. doi: 10.1509/jmkr.39.2.242.19081
Chandrasekaran, D., Arts, J. W., Tellis, G. J., & Frambach, R. T. (2013). Pricing in the international takeoff of new products. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 30(3), 249-264.
Chandrasekaran, D., Arts, J. W. C., Tellis, G. J., & Frambach, R. T. (2013). Pricing in the international takeoff of new products. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 30(3), 249-264. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijresmar.2012.09.008
Chandrasekaran, D., Costello, D., & Stubbs, P. (2013). Social media profiling: Google Patents.
Chandrasekaran, D., & Tellis, G. J. (2008). Global takeoff of new products: Culture, wealth, or vanishing differences? Marketing Science, 27(5), 844-860.
Chandrasekaran, D., & Tellis, G. J. (2011). Getting a grip on the saddle: Chasms or cycles? Journal of Marketing, 75(4), 21-34.
Chaney, P. K., Devinney, T. M., & Winer, R. S. (1991). The Impact of New Product Introductions on the Market Value of Firms. The Journal of Business, 64(4), 573-610.
Chang, T.-H., Lee, J.-Y., & Chen, R.-H. (2008). The effects of customer value on loyalty and profits in a dynamic competitive market. Computational Economics, 32(3), 317.
Chen, S.-F. S., Monroe, K. B., & Lou, Y.-C. (1998). The effects of framing price promotion messages on consumers' perceptions and purchase intentions. Journal of Retailing, 74(3), 353-372. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-4359(99)80100-6
Chen, Y., & Xie, J. (2005). Third-Party Product Review and Firm Marketing Strategy. Marketing Science, 24(2), 218-240. doi: 10.1287/mksc.1040.0089
Dahlén, M., Rosengren, S., & Törn, F. (2008). Advertising Creativity Matters. Journal of Advertising Research, 48(3), 392-403. doi: 10.2501/s002184990808046x
Deephouse, D. L. (2000). Media reputation as a strategic resource: an integration of mass communication and resource-based theories. Journal of Management, 26(6), 1091-1112. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0149-2063(00)00075-1
Dekimpe, M. G., & Hanssens, D. M. (2007). Advertising response models: Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Donovan, R. J., Rossiter, J. R., Marcoolyn, G., & Nesdale, A. (1994). Store atmosphere and purchasing behavior. Journal of Retailing, 70(3), 283-294. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-4359(94)90037-X
E., E. J., & A., P. C. (2011). The Causal Impact of Media in Financial Markets. The Journal of Finance, 66(1), 67-97. doi: doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01626.x
Elberse, A. (2008). Should you invest in the long tail? Harvard business review, 86(7/8), 88.
Elberse, A., & Anand, B. (2006). Advertising and expectations: The effectiveness of pre-release advertising for motion pictures. Harvard Business School.
Engelberg, J. E., & Parsons, C. A. (2011). The causal impact of media in financial markets. The Journal of Finance, 66(1), 67-97.
Evans, M. P. (2009). The Aggregator Blog Model: How a Blog leverages Long Tail Economics. Journal of Information Science & Technology, 6(2).
Farris, P. W., Bendle, N., Pfeifer, P., & Reibstein, D. (2010). Marketing metrics: The definitive guide to measuring marketing performance: Pearson Education.
Fehder, D. C., Nelling, E., & Trester, J. J. (2009). Innovation and price: the case of digital cameras. Applied Economics, 41(17), 2229-2236.
Fleder, D., & Hosanagar, K. (2009). Blockbuster culture's next rise or fall: The impact of recommender systems on sales diversity. Management Science, 55(5), 697-712.
Frederick, F. R., & Thomas, T. (1996). The loyalty effect: the hidden force behind growth, profits, and lasting value. Harvard Business School Press, Boston, Massachusetts.
Gantumur, T., & Stephan, A. (2010). Do external technology acquisitions matter for innovative efficiency and productivity?
Golder, P. N., & Tellis, G. J. (1997). Will it ever fly? Modeling the takeoff of really new consumer durables. Marketing Science, 16(3), 256-270.
Golder, P. N., & Tellis, G. J. (2004). Growing, growing, gone: Cascades, diffusion, and turning points in the product life cycle. Marketing Science, 23(2), 207-218.
Greve, H. R. (2003). A behavioral theory of R&D expenditures and innovations: Evidence from shipbuilding. Academy of Management journal, 46(6), 685-702.
Gu, F., & Wang, W. (2005). Intangible assets, information complexity, and analysts’ earnings forecasts. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 32(9‐10), 1673-1702.
Harmon-Jones, E., & Allen, J. J. B. (2001). The Role of Affect in the Mere Exposure Effect: Evidence from Psychophysiological and Individual Differences Approaches. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 27(7), 889-898. doi: 10.1177/0146167201277011
Haviv, A. (2015). Does purchase without search explain counter-cyclic pricing?
Hayes, B. E. (2008). Measuring customer satisfaction and loyalty: survey design, use, and statistical analysis methods: ASQ Quality Press.
Hennig-Thurau, T., Gwinner Kevin, P., Walsh, G., & Gremler Dwayne, D. (2004). Electronic word-of-mouth via consumer-opinion platforms: What motivates consumers to articulate themselves on the Internet? Journal of Interactive Marketing, 18(1), 38-52. doi: 10.1002/dir.10073
Hinz, O., Eckert, J., & Skiera, B. (2011). Drivers of the Long Tail Phenomenon: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Management Information Systems, 27(4), 43-69.
Hitt, M. A., Hoskisson, R. E., & Kim, H. (1997). International diversification: Effects on innovation and firm performance in product-diversified firms. Academy of Management journal, 40(4), 767-798.
Holbrook, M. B., & Addis, M. (2007). Taste versus the Market: An Extension of Research on the Consumption of Popular Culture. Journal of Consumer Research, 34(3), 415-424. doi: 10.1086/518529
Hong, S., & Wang, Y. J. (2011). Invested loyalty: the impact of ubiquitous technology on the current loyalty paradigm and the potential revolution. Journal of Strategic Marketing, 19(02), 187-204.
Jardon, C. M. (2016). Human Capital as Source of Innovativeness in Subsistence Small Businesses. Journal of Technology Management & Innovation, 11(3), 59-66.
Jonah Berger, & Schwartz, E. M. (2011). What Drives Immediate and Ongoing Word of Mouth? Journal of Marketing Research, 48(5), 869-880. doi: 10.1509/jmkr.48.5.869
Jones, T. O., & Sasser, W. E. (1995). Why satisfied customers defect. Harvard business review, 73(6), 88-&.
Kamakura, W. A., Mittal, V., Rosa, F. d., & Mazzon, J. A. (2002). Assessing the Service-Profit Chain. Marketing Science, 21(3), 294-317. doi: 10.1287/mksc.21.3.294.140
Kirmani, A., & Wright, P. (1989). Money Talks: Perceived Advertising Expense and Expected Product Quality. Journal of Consumer Research, 16(3), 344-353. doi: 10.1086/209220
Kopalle, P. K., Mela, C. F., & Marsh, L. (1999). The Dynamic Effect of Discounting on Sales: Empirical Analysis and Normative Pricing Implications. Marketing Science, 18(3), 317-332. doi: 10.1287/mksc.18.3.317
Krasnikov, A., & Jayachandran, S. (2008). The relative impact of marketing, research-and-development, and operations capabilities on firm performance. Journal of Marketing, 72(4), 1-11.
Krug, B., & Hendrischke, H. (2008). Framing China: Transformation and Institutional Change through Co‐evolution. Management and Organization Review, 4(1), 81-108.
Larson, R., & Edwards, B. H. (2009). Calculus: Cengage Learning.
Lee, Y.-K., Ahn, W.-K., & Kim, K. (2008). A study on the moderating role of alternative attractiveness in the relationship between relational benefits and customer loyalty. International Journal of hospitality & tourism administration, 9(1), 52-70.
Levy, M., & Weitz, B. A. (1995). Retailing Management. Richard D. Irwin. Inc., Chicago, IL, USA.
Libai, B., Muller, E., & Peres, R. (2013). Decomposing the value of word-of-mouth seeding programs: Acceleration versus expansion. Journal of marketing Research, 50(2), 161-176.
Liu, C.-T., Guo, Y. M., & Lee, C.-H. (2011). The effects of relationship quality and switching barriers on customer loyalty. International Journal of Information Management, 31(1), 71-79. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2010.05.008
Liu, P. J., Lamberton, C., & Haws, K. L. (2015). Should firms use small financial benefits to express appreciation to consumers? Understanding and avoiding trivialization effects.
Love, E. G., Jaegoo, L. I. M., & Bednar, M. K. (2017). THE FACE OF THE FIRM: THE INFLUENCE OF CEOs ON CORPORATE REPUTATION. Academy of Management Journal, 60(4), 1462-1481. doi: 10.5465/amj.2014.0862
Luo, X., & Homburg, C. (2007). Neglected Outcomes of Customer Satisfaction. Journal of Marketing, 71(2), 133-149. doi: 10.1509/jmkg.71.2.133
Müller, S. S., Fries, A. J., & Gedenk, K. (2014). How much to give?—The effect of donation size on tactical and strategic success in cause-related marketing. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 31(2), 178-191.
M., M.-W. M., & Roger, C. (1994). Determinants of New Product Performance: A Review and Meta-Analysis. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 11(5), 397-417. doi: doi:10.1111/1540-5885.1150397
Marn, M. V., Roegner, E. V., & Zawada, C. C. (2003). Pricing new products. McKinsey Quarterly(3), 40-49.
McCaughey, N. C., & Behrens, C. (2011). Paying for Status? The effect of frequent flier program member status on air fare choice. Department of Economics, Issn 1441-5429, Discussion paper 04, 11.
Miller, T. W., Mathisen, R. E., & McAllister, J. P. (2005). THE MARKET-IMPLIED ECONOMIC LIVES OF ADVERTISING EXPENSES AND R&D EXPENSES. Journal of Accounting & Finance Research, 13(3), 89-105.
Morgan, N. A., & Rego, L. L. (2006). The Value of Different Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty Metrics in Predicting Business Performance. Marketing Science, 25(5), 426-439. doi: 10.1287/mksc.1050.0180
Morwitz, V. G., Greenleaf, E. A., & Johnson, E. J. (1998). Divide and Prosper: Consumers' Reactions to Partitioned Prices. Journal of Marketing Research, 35(4), 453-463. doi: 10.2307/3152164
Oestreicher-Singer, G., & Sundararajan, A. (2012). RECOMMENDATION NETWORKS AND THE LONG TAIL OF ELECTRONIC COMMERCE. MIS Quarterly, 36(1), 65-A64.
Oliver, R. L. (1999). Whence Consumer Loyalty? Journal of Marketing, 63, 33-44. doi: 10.2307/1252099
Oliver, R. L., Rust, R. T., & Varki, S. (1997). Customer delight: Foundations, findings, and managerial insight. Journal of Retailing, 73(3), 311-336. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-4359(97)90021-X
Pauwels, K., Hanssens, D. M., & Siddarth, S. (2002). The Long-Term Effects of Price Promotions on Category Incidence, Brand Choice, and Purchase Quantity. Journal of Marketing Research, 39(4), 421-439. doi: 10.1509/jmkr.39.4.421.19114
Pauwels, K., Silva-Risso, J., Srinivasan, S., & Hanssens, D. M. (2004). New Products, Sales Promotions, and Firm Value: The Case of the Automobile Industry. Journal of Marketing, 68(4), 142-156.
Penner‐Hahn, J., & Shaver, J. M. (2005). Does international research and development increase patent output? An analysis of Japanese pharmaceutical firms. Strategic Management Journal, 26(2), 121-140.
Phene, A., Tallman, S., & Almeida, P. (2012). When do acquisitions facilitate technological exploration and exploitation? Journal of management, 38(3), 753-783.
Philip, G., Janet, H., Tracy, P., & Karen, Y. (2006). Message framing effects on price discounting. Journal of Product & Brand Management, 15(7), 458-465. doi: doi:10.1108/10610420610712847
Pitta, D., Franzak, F., & Fowler, D. (2006). A strategic approach to building online customer loyalty: integrating customer profitability tiers. Journal of Consumer Marketing, 23(7), 421-429.
Putrevu, S. (2005). Differences in Readers' Response towards Advertising versus Publicity. Psychological Reports, 96(1), 207-212. doi: 10.2466/pr0.96.1.207-212
Raghubir, P., & Corfman, K. (1999). When Do Price Promotions Affect Pretrial Brand Evaluations? Journal of Marketing Research, 36(2), 211-222. doi: 10.2307/3152094
Rayport, J. F. (2013). Advertising's new medium: human experience. Harvard business review, 91(3), 76-82, 84, 132.
Reid, L. N., King, K. W., Martin, H. J., & Soh, H. (2005). Local advertising decision makers' perceptions of media effectiveness and substitutability. Journal of Media Economics, 18(1), 35-53.
Rinallo, D., & Basuroy, S. (2009). Does Advertising Spending Influence Media Coverage of the Advertiser? Journal of Marketing, 73(6), 33-46. doi: 10.1509/jmkg.73.6.33
Roland T. Rust, Katherine N. Lemon, & Zeithaml, V. A. (2004). Return on Marketing: Using Customer Equity to Focus Marketing Strategy. Journal of Marketing, 68(1), 109-127. doi: 10.1509/jmkg.68.1.109.24030
Rucker, D. D., Petty, R. E., & Priester, J. R. (2007). Understanding advertising effectiveness from a psychological perspective: The importance of attitudes and attitude strength. The handbook of advertising, 73-88.
Selnes, F. (1993). An Examination of the Effect of Product Performance on Brand Reputation, Satisfaction and Loyalty. European Journal of Marketing, 27(9), 19-35.
Silva-Risso, J., & Ionova, I. (2008). Practice Prize Winner—A Nested Logit Model of Product and Transaction-Type Choice for Planning Automakers' Pricing and Promotions. Marketing Science, 27(4), 545-566. doi: 10.1287/mksc.1080.0374
Singh, N. K., & Raina, D. (2015). Impact of Advertisement Expenses on Net Sales for the Selected Manufacturing Companies. Global Journal of Enterprise Information System, 7(3), 38-48.
Sorescu, A., Shankar, V., & Kushwaha, T. (2007). New Product Preannouncements and Shareholder Value: Don't Make Promises You Can't Keep. Journal of Marketing Research, 44(3), 468-489. doi: 10.1509/jmkr.44.3.468
Tan, D. (2016). Making the news: Heterogeneous media coverage and corporate litigation. Strategic Management Journal, 37(7), 1341-1353. doi: 10.1002/smj.2390
Taussig, F. W. (2013). Principles of economics (Vol. 2): Cosimo, Inc.
Tellis, G. J., Stremersch, S., & Yin, E. (2003). The international takeoff of new products: The role of economics, culture, and country innovativeness. Marketing Science, 22(2), 188-208.
Van Everdingen, Y., Fok, D., & Stremersch, S. (2009). Modeling global spillover of new product takeoff. Journal of Marketing Research, 46(5), 637-652.
Van Heerde, H. J., Gijsbrechts, E. L. S., & Pauwels, K. (2015). Fanning the Flames? Flow Media Coverage of a Price War Affects Retailers, Consumers, and Investors. Journal of Marketing Research (JMR), 52(5), 674-693. doi: 10.1509/jmr.13.0260
Vikas Mittal, & Kamakura, W. A. (2001). Satisfaction, Repurchase Intent, and Repurchase Behavior: Investigating the Moderating Effect of Customer Characteristics. Journal of Marketing Research, 38(1), 131-142. doi: 10.1509/jmkr.38.1.131.18832
Wei, L., & Xiao, J. (2012). Factors affecting the take-off of innovative technologies: evidence from digital cameras. Applied Economics, 44(32), 4143-4152.
Weisstein, F. L., Monroe, K. B., & Kukar-Kinney, M. (2013). Effects of price framing on consumers’ perceptions of online dynamic pricing practices. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 41(5), 501-514. doi: 10.1007/s11747-013-0330-0
Wieseke, J., Alavi, S., & Habel, J. (2014). Willing to Pay More, Eager to Pay Less: The Role of Customer Loyalty in Price Negotiations. Journal of Marketing, 78(6), 17-37. doi: 10.1509/jm.13.0104
Xie, Y., & Keh, H. T. (2016). Taming the Blame Game: Using Promotion Programs to Counter Product-Harm Crises. Journal of Advertising, 45(2), 211-226. doi: 10.1080/00913367.2015.1134362
Xiong, G., & Bharadwaj, S. (2013). Asymmetric roles of advertising and marketing capability in financial returns to news: Turning bad into good and good into great.
Yadav, M. S., Prabhu, J. C., & Chandy, R. K. (2007). Managing the Future: CEO Attention and Innovation Outcomes. Journal of Marketing, 71(4), 84-101. doi: 10.1509/jmkg.71.4.84
Yin, H., Cui, B., Li, J., Yao, J., & Chen, C. (2012). Challenging the long tail recommendation. Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment, 5(9), 896-907.
Zajonc, R. B. (2001). Mere Exposure: A Gateway to the Subliminal. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 10(6), 224-228. doi: 10.1111/1467-8721.00154
Zhong, N., & Michahelles, F. (2013). Google play is not a long tail market: an empirical analysis of app adoption on the Google play app market. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 28th Annual ACM Symposium on Applied Computing.
Zoellner, F., & Schaefers, T. (2015). Do Price Promotions Help or Hurt Premium-Product Brands? The Impact of Different Price-Promotion Types On Sales and Brand Perception, 55(3), 270-283. doi: 10.2501/jar-2015-008