本研究以 2021 年至 2023 年間之 S&P 500 美國上市公司為研究對象，結合 Glassdoor 員工評論平台之員工未來展望評分與 Compustat 財務資料，探討員工對企業未來發展之認知，是否會透過影響供應商對企業履約風險之評估，進而影響企業所能取得之商業信用水準。員工作為企業營運之第一線參與者，其對企業未來前景之評估，可能蘊含財務報表所難以完整揭露之前瞻性資訊。在供應商資訊取得相對受限之情境下，此類非財務訊號是否能成為其授信決策之重要參考依據，為本研究之核心問題。惟本研究採用觀察性資料與固定效果迴歸設計，所有實證結果應解讀為變數間之關聯性，而非因果效果。
本研究以Glassdoor 平台之 Business Outlook 評分平均值（Employee_Outlook）衡量員工對企業未來發展之認知，以應付帳款除以銷貨成本（TradeCredit）衡量企業所能取得之商業信用水準。由於 Employee_Outlook 與員工整體滿意度（ES）之間存在高度共線性，本研究採用正交化處理，以確保主要解釋變數之估計係數能完整反映員工前瞻性展望之獨立效果。最終回歸樣本共計 947 筆公司－年度觀測值，涵蓋 338 家上市公司。
主回歸結果顯示，Employee_Outlook 對 Trade Credit 之影響在整體樣本下不顯著，不支持員工正向展望與較高商業信用水準呈正相關之假說。此一結果在替代依變數、不同固定效果設定及落後一期解釋變數等各種穩健性測試下均維持一致。然而，橫斷面分析揭示，Employee_Outlook 之效果具有明確的產業邊界條件：在量測儀器與控制設備業（SIC 38）及運輸設備業（SIC 37）中，員工展望對商業信用具有邊際統計顯著之負向影響，且交乘項分析確認此類製造業之效果顯著有別於其他產業（p = 0.066）。本研究認為，上述製造業之顯著效果，主要來自供應鏈複雜度高與員工技術密集度強等產業特性，使員工展望之非財務訊號在此類情境下具有較高之資訊價值。
本研究之貢獻在於：首次將員工前瞻性展望與商業信用決策相連結，填補既有文獻之空缺；確立員工展望訊號價值之產業邊界條件；並以零結果說明在大型上市公司財務資訊透明度較高之情境下，非財務訊號之邊際資訊價值相對有限，有助於釐清員工觀感影響外部融資決策之適用範圍。

This study examines whether employees' perceptions of corporate outlook, as reflected in Glassdoor's Business Outlook ratings, are associated with the level of trade credit firms receive from suppliers. Using a panel of 947 firm-year observations covering 338 S&P 500 firms from 2021 to 2023, employee-outlook data from Glassdoor are combined with financial data from Compustat. Employee_Outlook is measured as the firm-year average Business Outlook rating (coded +1, 0, or -1); trade credit is measured as accounts payable scaled by cost of goods sold. Because Employee_Outlook is highly collinear with overall employee satisfaction, satisfaction is orthogonalized against Employee_Outlook so that the coefficient of interest captures its independent informational content. Fixed-effects panel regressions, controlling for firm size, profitability, leverage, firm age, sales growth, cash holdings, and interest coverage, show that Employee_Outlook has no statistically significant association with trade credit in the full sample, a result that is robust across alternative dependent variables, fixed-effect specifications, and a lagged explanatory variable. Cross-sectional analysis reveals that this null result masks meaningful industry heterogeneity: in the Measuring and Controlling Instruments (SIC 38) and Transportation Equipment (SIC 37) industries, employee outlook exhibits a marginally significant negative association with trade credit, an effect statistically distinct from other industries. These findings suggest that non-financial employee signals carry limited incremental information for suppliers of large, transparent firms overall, but may matter more in industries with complex supply chains and technically intensive production.

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