台灣地區在有限的水資源環境下，倘若水庫單位能夠精確地預測上游集水區之入流量，將可提供水庫在枯水期有效的放水操作與管理。本研究擬建構之長期入流量預報系統，係結合不同時間尺度之連續型降雨-逕流模式與中央氣象局長期天氣展望之預報結果，來進行水庫未來三旬（月）之入流量預報。本文主要研究內容包含：（1）發展以日為時間尺度之連續型降雨-逕流模式，（2）並進一步發展旬模式與月模式，進而與日模式比較其模擬精度與評鑑結果，（3）最後配合修正後之中央氣象局長期天氣展望資料，以不同時間尺度降雨-逕流模式進行未來三旬（月）水庫之入流量預測。

　　針對以上項目分析結果顯示：模式無論以日、旬及月為時間單位進行，其結果皆能夠合理模擬集水區之降雨-逕流關係。結果亦發現，將日模式結果累加成旬及月時間單位，能改善枯水期間模擬流量低估之情形。長期入流量預報方面，研究中將不同時間尺度之預報系統與直接利用平均值為參考基準兩種方式進行優劣比較，結果得知：本文採用水庫枯水期長期入流量於不同時間尺度模式之預報能力，皆較以歷年旬（月）入流量平均值為基準更可以掌握流量變動之趨勢。綜合以上結果，本文發展以日為時間尺度之降雨-逕流模式，除能有效提昇模式於旬（月）時間尺度之模擬精度外，更期望能夠因應未來中央氣象局發佈不同時距之氣象預報資料，進而準確地預測水庫上游集水區之入流量，以支援水庫管理單位進行放水操作決策與乾旱預警之依據。

　　If the reservoir inflows can be forecasted precisely beforehand, they may benefit the reservoir operation and management in Taiwan. The long-term inflow forecasting system of reservoir combines a continuous rainfall-runoff model with the long-term weather outlook provided by the Central Weather Bureau to forecast one-month and three -month ahead inflows with the ten-day and one-month time steps. There are several tasks in the present study, including (1) the developing of a rainfall-runoff model based on the daily time step, (2) the developing of ten-day and monthly model and further comparing the accuracy among ten-day, monthly and daily model, (3) the combining of the modified long-term weather outlook and the continuous rainfall-runoff with different time steps to forecast the monthly and three-month inflows.

　　The results reveal the continuous rainfall-runoff model has good performances on daily, ten-day and monthly flow simulation. The comparison shows that the daily time scale model has better performances than the ten-day and monthly one. Forecasted inflows by using different time scale model are compared with the historical average inflows. The comparison indicates that the proposed inflow forecasting system has better results in inflow forecasting. In conclusion, the daily rainfall-runoff model can get the better accuracy. Daily time scale can be easily used in different time scale forecasting data of Central Weather Bureau in the future. The inflow forecasting may support the reservoir management for operation decision and drought warning.

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