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研究生: 林文欽
Lin, Wen-Chin
論文名稱: WAVEWATCH III海洋波浪模式之參數敏感度分析
The Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters of WAVEWATCH III Ocean Wave Model
指導教授: 高家俊
Kao, Chia-Chuen
李汴軍
Lee, Ben-Chun
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 水利及海洋工程學系
Department of Hydraulic & Ocean Engineering
論文出版年: 2004
畢業學年度: 92
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 61
中文關鍵詞: 敏感度分析波浪模式
外文關鍵詞: WAVEWATCH III
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  •   WAVEWATCH III 數值波浪模式已被廣泛應用於作業化的波浪預報,然而模式的控制方程式中有許多前人利用現場觀測資料或水工模型實驗迴歸得到的經驗公式,式中的參數值不間斷地有學者專家從事相關研究,期望獲得最佳參數值。本文歸納前人研究,整理得到WAVEWATCH III 數值波浪模式中可修正的參數,利用統計學的敏感度分析得到各參數的排序為:風速轉換常數(co)、計算PM波譜形的係數(Xp)、能量的分配常數(C)、受風域外成長能量的率除係數(Xs)、底床摩擦係數(Γ )、平均相對水深(kd )、計算成熟波譜形的係數(Xr、Xf),此排列順序顯示各參數在數值波浪模式中的影響程度。另外,為了瞭解上述八個參數中,是否每個參數均對模式計算結果具有明顯的反應,本文逐一以累加方式選取參數個數進行計算,結果顯示以co、Xp、C、Xs 對模式計算結果具有較明顯之反應。利用上述對參數分析的結果,在季風和颱風天氣條件下以ARS法尋求WAVEWATCH III 數值波浪模式應用於台灣海域時之最佳參數,由結果顯示不同天氣型態會影響參數值的設定,並進一步利用台灣海域之現場觀測資料驗證參數之適用性,由結果顯示利用調整後的參數計算得到的波浪較接近實測值,證明本文以敏感度分析先對參數進行分析,再利用ARS法尋求最佳參數的研究過程,可使模式計算出合理的結果。

      WAVEWATCH III wave model has already widely used in the wave prediction, but there are lots of forefathers take advantage of the observation or the water conservancy project model experiment to receive the experience formula. the parameter value in the type is having scholar experts to engaged in relevant research constantly, expect to obtain the best parameter value. This paper generalized the parameters of WAVEWATCH III wave model which revised from many forefathers. Using the sensitivity analysis of statistics, then we get the sort of these parameters, each of them are: the effective wind factor (co), coefficient of calculating the shape of PM spectrum (Xp), the proportion constant of wave energy (C), the swell attenuation filter factor by wind (Xs), the bottom friction coefficient (Γ ), the mean relative depth (kd ), coefficient of calculating the shape of ripe spectrum (Xr, Xf) in turn. The permutation of these parameters showed the level of influence of WAVEWATCH III wave model. In addition, in order to understand in above-mentioned eight parameters, whether each parameter has obvious response to the result of calculation of the way , this text chooses the number of parameter to calculate by way of accumulating one by one, the result show that has more obvious response to the result of calculation of the way with co, Xp, C, Xs. Making use of this result of the susceptibility analysis, the best parameter when by seeking the way to apply to the sea area of Taiwan in ARS (Adaptive Random Search) approach under monsoon and typhoon weather condition. It was shown that different weather condition will influence the settlement of parameter value by the result. Furthermore, use the observation around Taiwan water to verify the suitability of these parameters. It was shown that using the parameters after adjusting to calculate the wave and relatively close to the surveying value by the result, it is proved that this paper analyses with the susceptibility that analyses about the parameter first, then use ARS approach to seek the research course of the best parameter can make the way calculate out the rational result.

    中文摘要 I 英文摘要 II 目錄 IV 表目錄 VI 圖目錄 VIII 第一章 緒論 1 1-1 前言 1 1-2 前人研究 1 1-2-1 風浪理論 2 1-2-2 數值技巧 4 1-2-3 參數率定研究 4 1-3 研究動機與目的 5 1-4 本文架構 7 第二章 WAVEWATCH III波浪模式之理論背景 8 2-1 波浪作用力平衡方程式 8 2-2 源函數方程(Source function) 9 2-2-1 風浪成長項(Sin) 10 2-2-2 能量消散(Sds) 13 2-2-3 波波非線性交互作用(Snl) 16 2-2-4 底床摩擦項(Sbot) 18 2-2-5 源函數波譜形狀之選取 19 第三章 影響波浪能量變化之參數敏感度分析 21 3-1 分析步驟 22 3-1-1 敏感度分析之實驗設計 22 3-1-2 評估指標 23 3-2 參數敏感度檢定 25 3-3 參數修正個數對模式計算結果之影響 30 第四章 WAVEWATCH III數值波浪模式參數之計算與驗證 35 4-1 ARS(Adaptive Random Search)法基本理論 35 4-2 應用ARS法選取最佳參數 37 4-2-1 模式採用之風場品管 37 4-2-2 模式參數之調整 37 4-3 不同季節下波浪模式推算結果 44 4-3-1 針對單一測站調整模式參數 44 4-3-2 考慮所有測站調整模式參數 46 第五章 結論與建議 56 5-1 結論 56 5-2 建議 57 參考文獻 58

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