過去研究中，Odean (1999)、Barber and Odean (2000)、Barber et al.(2006)認為投資者過度交易，導致於他們的獲利沒有辦法彌補交易成本。然而也有學者認為過度自信的投資者可以從交易中獲得比理性交易者更大的獲利，也就是過度自信者可以在市場上存活下來，像是De Long et al.(1990,1991)、Kyle and Wang (1997)、Benos (1998)、Wang (2001)、Hirshleifer and Luo (2001)。為了解過度交易者如何存活下來，我們分析自然人在台灣期貨交易所(Taiwan Futures Exchange, TAIFEX)的交易商品—電子期的交易資料。我們將樣本分成兩組，一組是存活下來的人，簡稱「存活者」，另一組是退出市場的人，簡稱「退出者」。透過單一變數簡單迴歸，我們探究交易者獲利對風險的影響，利用報酬反轉比例及轉虧為盈比例觀察交易者的停損能力，並歸納分析交易者的交易策略。
實證結果發現部分交易者的風險容忍度會隨著損失擴大而增加，部分交易者會因前期賠錢而在下期增加交易量。而存活者相對於退出者有較高的停損比率，較小的實現損失率，驗證了處置效果的強度確實會影響績效的表現。從本文的實證也發現存活者與退出者並沒有一定的交易策略；此外，我們亦發現過度自信的假說(overconfidence and trading volume relation)並不太能解釋本研究樣本帳號所創造出來的成交量。

Some researchers of overconfidence have suggested that investors trade too much so that profit cannot cover trading cost ( Odean (1999)、Barber and Odean (2000)、Barber et al.(2006)). However, some researchers have indicated that overconfidence traders get more profit and survive (De Long et al.(1990,1991)、Kyle and Wang (1997)、Benos (1998)、Wang (2001)、Hirshleifer and Luo (2001)).
The aim of this article attempts to explore how heavy traders survived. Using individual investor trading data of Taiwan Electronic Sector Index Futures, the research involved regression analysis, comprised of three sets of time series data concerning risk and profit. Results of this study show that investors would increase trading volume and tolerance of risk after losing. In our research sample, traders have not significant trading strategies to make money and overconfidence and trading volume relation may not explain the investors trading behavior.

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