本文分析期貨交易者是否具有過度自信傾向以及其獲利情形。本文處裡程序為：首先我們以Locke and Mann (2002)建議的方法分析投資者是否具有過度自信傾向，該方法的原理源自於Gervais-Odean 的模型，即之前的成功會導致事後股票交易的增加。第二、我們提出假設一及假設二來驗證交易者是否具有過度自信特質。此兩個假設是修改自Chuang and Lee (2006)所提出的第二項假設，也就是前期損益會影響後期交易多寡，其用來驗證交易者是否具有過度自信的特質。在驗證假設之後，我們進一步比較交易者的獲利情形以及風險態度並提出研究結論。我們的分析資料來自台灣期貨交易所，其具有較易了解單一個別投資人的交易行為，以及期貨商品具有買賣部位具有相同的風險承擔及同等的流動性而易於分析的特性。我們的研究結果並不能證明具有過度自信傾向的交易者會是市場的贏家，因為我們所提出的兩種假設的研究結果並不一致。假設一的結果與De Long et al. (1990)的結論一致，也就是有行為偏誤(過度自信傾向)的投資人能在市場中生存並能賺取超額報酬。但是在假設二的研究結果卻無法呈現上述的顯著結果。

Financial behaviors have been the focus of the financial field for years. This study provides the discussion about if traders in Taiwan’s futures market have overconfident trading tendency, and how does it influence their trading results. We present two hypotheses to examine the issue above, and both of them are used to find out the relationship between previous trading results and the following trading decisions made by those traders. The results of this study cannot have consistent evidence for the two hypotheses thus fail to prove that overconfident traders are always winners.

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