在研發階段的初期，如何在情勢未明的狀況下篩選具潛力之技術領域並利用有限的資源投入研發，一直是企業進行投資決策時所面臨的難題。因此，本研究利用實質選擇權的觀念來檢視企業對於新技術領域的投資決策模式。
我們以全球軸承產業前十大公司1989至2004年之專利資料作為分析樣本，並利用Cox迴歸模型來探討其技術的機會範圍、企業過去的投資經驗以及競爭的態勢等三個構面對於新技術領域後續研發投入的影響。
實證的結果顯示，先前的投資經驗對於企業投資意向的影響最大，其次為競爭態式最後才是機會的範圍。

In the initial stage of a new technology, it’s really difficult for firms to make R&D investment decisions under uncertain conditions. In this paper, we use real options reasoning to examine innovative investment decisions that take a firm into new technological areas.
We collect patent data of top 10 bearing companies for the period 1989–2004, and employ Cox’s regression model to identify three constructs—scope of opportunity, prior experience, and competitive effects—which have an influence on firms’ propensity to invest in new R&D options.
The empirical results show that prior experience has the greatest influence on the likelihood of taking out an option, followed by competitive effects and the scope of the opportunity.

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