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研究生: 郭韋辰
Guo, Wei-Chen
論文名稱: 考慮浮時損失影響下之最佳趕工決策
Optimal Project Compression Decision-making Concerning Impact of Float Time Loss
指導教授: 潘南飛
Pan, Nang-Fei
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 土木工程學系
Department of Civil Engineering
論文出版年: 2018
畢業學年度: 106
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 97
中文關鍵詞: 時間-成本權衡模式浮時損失要徑指數專案趕工問題機率理論動態排程
外文關鍵詞: Time-cost trade-off, float loss, criticality index, project crashing problem, probability theory, dynamics scheduling
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  • 營建工程的施工階段存在許多無可避免或不可預期的不確定因素,可能使作業施工日期延後,進而造成整體工程進度落後,因此管理者或承包商須決定趕工計畫之可行性。過往研究針對專案趕工之時間、成本為主要因素來分析趕工問題,建立時間-成本權衡模式,透過管理者輸入期望工期之情形下獲得最佳趕工決策。然而,於執行趕工計畫時,壓縮要徑作業之工期可能導致非要徑作業產生浮時損失,使專案彈性降低。本研究利用要徑指數來代表浮時損失所造成之影響,且搭配作業成本建立雙目標權衡模式並加入期望工期門檻限制,獲得兼顧成本及專案彈性之最佳趕工決策。
    本研究所提出之模式分別以線性及非線性函數來描述作業成本及其要徑指數變化,試比較兩者結果之差異。此外,考量專案執行過程可能面臨許多不確定性因素進而影響工期,為避免產生模式求解結果與實際情況不相符之情形,故本研究亦提出隨機型及即時反應兩種趕工模式,將機率理論及動態排程導入模式中來處理施工期間所面臨不確定性之問題。

    There are lots of inevitable or unpredictable uncertain factors that might happen during construction phase, which may cause construction progress fall behind schedule. Therefore, project managers or contractors need to set a feasible catch-up plan. To find the suitable plan, past studies focus on the two main factors, which are duration, costs, using these factors to analyze the project crashing problems. Furthermore, by entering the expected project completed time, the managers would get the optimal compression decision. However, in case of crashing, the available total float for noncritical activities may be reduced, and thus, the schedule flexibility would be reduced. Therefore, this study uses the criticality index to represent the impact of float loss, proposes a cost-criticality index trade-off model and sets the expected project completed time as a threshold to obain the decision that takes into account cost and project flexibility.
    This study considers the time-cost relation via non-linear function and linear function, and compares the difference between the two results. Additionally, to correspond with the practice, this study also takes the probability theory and dynamics scheduling into account, proposing the stochastics and real-time reaction models.

    摘要 I INTRODUCTION III MATERIALS AND METHODS III RESULTS AND DISCUSSION IV CONCLUSION VI 誌謝 VII 目錄 VIII 表目錄 XI 圖目錄 XIII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1研究背景與動機 1 1.2研究目的 2 1.3研究範圍與限制 3 1.4 研究流程與架構 4 第二章 文獻回顧 7 2.1時間與成本之權衡 7 2.1.1作業需時之機率密度分配 9 2.1.2成本函數型式 10 2.1.3小結 13 2.2浮時 14 2.2.1浮時成本 15 2.2.2要徑指數 15 2.2.3小結 16 2.3多目標數學規劃 16 2.4隨機規劃 18 2.4.1隨機數學規劃求解 19 2.4.2小結 20 2.5動態排程 20 2.5.1即時系統(Real-time system) 21 2.5.2小結 21 第三章 研究方法 22 3.1時間與成本之權衡分析 22 3.1.1要徑法 22 3.1.2趕工方案之權衡 26 3.1.3小結 29 3.2作業成本函數型式 30 3.3要徑指數 31 3.4多目標規劃求解 33 3.4.1小結 34 3.5隨機型規劃求解 34 3.5.1小結 35 3.6動態排程 36 3.6.1即時作業系統模式 36 3.6.2動態排程數學模式建構 36 3.6.3小結 38 第四章 模式建立 39 4.1模式流程 39 4.2明確型趕工模式 41 4.2.1最小化專案總成本模式 41 4.2.2最小化專案要徑指數模式 42 4.2.3多屬性效益法求解多目標權衡 44 4.3隨機型趕工模式 46 4.4即時反應趕工模式 49 4.5作業時間-成本線性及非線性函數關係 52 4.6 要徑指數 54 第五章 案例分析與探討 56 5.1非趕工情況 58 5.2明確型趕工情況 58 5.2.1作業趕工成本及浮時損失成本均為線性函數 60 5.2.2作業趕工成本及浮時損失成本均為非線性函數 69 5.2.3小結 75 5.3隨機型趕工情況 76 5.3.1趕工成本函數及要徑指數函數均為線性 77 5.3.2趕工成本函數及要徑指數函數均為非線性 79 5.3.3小結 81 5.4即時反應趕工情況 82 第六章 結論與建議 86 6.1結論與貢獻 86 6.2建議 86 參考文獻 88 附錄-Risk Simulator 使用簡介 94

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