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研究生：	林俊騰 Lin, Jyun-Teng
論文名稱：	評估廢車廢鐵回收流程溫室氣體排放量以及減量潛能-以台灣為例 Evaluation of greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials in car recycling system - A case study in Taiwan
指導教授：	福島康裕 Yasuhiro Fukushima
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	工學院 - 環境工程學系 Department of Environmental Engineering
論文出版年：	2007
畢業學年度：	95
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	78
中文關鍵詞：	韋伯分布、生命週期盤查、羅吉斯函數、產品壽命
外文關鍵詞：	weibull distribution, logistic function, LCI, lifetime, LCA
相關次數：	點閱：98 下載：6
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由於台灣的地理限制，過多的車輛將會造成城市內的交通壅塞、停車不便的問題；廢車內包含許多高價值的金屬，其中佔最大部份的便是鋼鐵，由於鋼鐵是國家建設發展的重要使用材料之一，回收廢車中的鋼鐵能有助於經濟發展，所以廢車回收是必行之道。政府從1993年6月投資成立一般事業廢棄物回收清除處理基金會後，自1995年開始正式開始回收廢車。
目前廢車收集後，先會送至拆解廠將可回收以及對環境有污染的零件拆除，剩下的部份，一部分將會送到廢車粉碎廠處理，粉碎成碎鐵，而另一部分將被金屬大盤商收集，經過簡單的壓剪變成較大塊的碎鐵，碎鐵最後將被送至電弧爐廠熔煉再利用。
不同於台灣的廢車鋼鐵回收，日本北九州的shredder-less廠，是先進行類似拆解廠的工作，拆解完畢的乾淨車殼，將直接被壓成鋼鐵骰子，送進一貫煉鋼廠熔煉。
本研究目的主要是推估回收廢車鋼鐵時的溫室氣體排放，並比較考慮shredder-less廠時，是否可減低溫室氣體的排放，並推估未來可能的排放量。
研究中建立生命週期盤查模式來推算廢車進入各處理廠的流量，並利用汽車量推估模式來推估未來可能的廢車輛，藉由推估的廢車輛進行回收廢車鋼鐵時的溫室氣體排放推估。　　車輛模式中，使用韋伯分布來模擬汽車的產品壽命，和羅吉斯函數來模擬及推估使用中車輛數；溫室氣體排放推估量，則是利用所計算出各程序的溫室氣體排放因子，並乘上進入各程序的處理量而得。

Due to geographic limitation of Taiwan, heavy traffic and parking problem would occur when too many cars in city. If cars not are recycled after they’re discarded, they might be abandoned aside roads and this would enhancing the problem. Valuable metals contained in end-of-life vehicles (ELVs), most of them is steel. Steel is an important material in developing nation constructions. Recycling steel from ELVs would support economic of nation. Government has fund a recycling fund in 1993 June. Official application of recycling car stared in 1995.
After collecting ELVs, they would be transported to disassembling plant to take un-environmental friendly components apart. Some of rest parts are transported to shredding plant to shred into small steel scarps. The other parts are transported to metal wholesaler’s store to do simple cutting and turn the parts into steel scarps which are bigger than scarps from shredding plant. These steel scarps end to reusable by refining in Electric arc furnace.
Different to shredding process in Taiwan, the shredder-less process in Japan which is operated by disassembling an ELV first and compressing clean car shell into dice directly. Those steel dices are transported to integrated steel making company for refining.
The purpose of my research is to estimate and predict green house gas (GHG) emissions when recycling steel from ELVs and evaluate reduction potential of GHG emissions between present recycle situation with situation after introducing shredder-less process.
In my research, I established a model of life cycle inventory (LCI) to estimate intensity of flows which into each recycler and a prediction model of cars for predicting the number of cars in the future and using the predicted number for doing prediction of GHG emission. In prediction model of car, Weibull Distribution (WD) is used to simulate lifetime of yearly new cars, and Logistic Function (LF) is used to simulate and predict the number of possessed cars in the future. GHG emission is estimated by using emission factor of each process multiplying amount of treatment of input flow.

中文摘要	I
Abstract	II
致謝	III
Table of content  IV
List of figures  VI
List of tables VII
Chapter 1 Introduction	1
1.1 Background	1
1.1.1 History of car recycling system in Taiwan	1
1.1.2 Steel recycling procedure in car recycling system	5
1.1.3 Information of Taiwanese car market	6
1.1.3.1 Present and historic information of car market	6
1.1.3.2 Composition of ELVs	7
1.1.4 Environmental loads	7
In car recycling system	7
In EAF refining	7
In transportation	8
1.1.5 Shredder-less process	9
1.2 Motivation	10
1.3 Objective	10
Ch1. Appendix	11
Ch1. Reference	14
Chapter 2 Methodology	17
2.1 Framework of research	17
2.2 Model of predicting number of ELVs	19
2.2.1 Required data and data sources	19
2.2.2 Application of Weibull Distribution on simulating lifetime of cars	20
2.2.3 Application of Logistic function on predicting number of cars	21
2.2.4 Adjustment of parameters in Weibull Distribution and Logistic Function	23
–	Adjustment of parameters in LF	23
–	Adjustment of parameters in WD	24
2.3 LCI model on determination of flow’s intensity in car recycling system	26
2.3.1 The LCI model for preceding study	26
2.3.2 Goal and scope definition in LCI model	27
2.3.3 Methodology of LCI model	28
Necessary parameters are listed in Ch.2 Appendix.	28
–	Functional unit	28
–	Objective function	28
–	Variables	29
–	Constraints	31
–	Parameter of distance	33
–	Formula of cost in Transportation	33
–	Formula of profit in shredding plant	33
–	Formula of profit in EAF plant	34
2.4 Estimation of GHG emissions	35
–	In Transportation	35
–	In disassembling plant	36
–	In shredding plant	37
–	In EAF plant	38
2.5 Scenario analysis for evaluating potential of reducing GHG emission	39
2.5.1 Modification in goal and scope definition	39
2.5.2 Modification in LCI model	40
2.5.3 Estimation of GHG emission factor in scenario analysis	41
–	In shredder-less plant	41
–	In integrated steel making plant	42
Ch.2 Appendix	43
Ch2. Reference	44
Chapter 3 Results	47
3.1 Prediction stock and flows of ELVs	47
3.1.1 Prediction of number of possessed cars	47
3.1.2 Simulated lifetime of annual new cars	48
3.1.3 Prediction of number of ELVs	51
3.1.4 Average age of cars	52
3.2 Results of estimation of flows in LCI model	54
3.3 Result of estimation of GHG emission	58
3.4 Results of scenario analysis	60
Ch.3 Appendix	67
Ch.3 Reference	75
Chapter 4 Conclusions	77
Chapter 5 Future work	78
                                    

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校外：2007-08-22公開

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