本研究聚焦於蔡英文執政期間，探討經濟表現、政黨認同與世代效應對施政滿意度的交互影響，並以動機性推理與世代效應理論為基礎進行分析。結果顯示，「其他」政黨支持者對經濟波動的敏感度最高，無論經濟成長率或痛苦指數的變動，其施政滿意度均顯著波動；相較之下，國民黨與民進黨支持者的反應相對穩定。在民進黨執政期間，國民黨支持者的滿意度處於低點，而民進黨支持者則維持高位，突顯政黨認同的情感偏好對施政評價的影響超過經濟指標的直接作用。此外，青世代對經濟波動更為敏感，特別是在痛苦指數上升時滿意度顯著下降；長世代的反應則較平緩，支持了生命歷程與生命週期效應的假設。失業率的影響方向與預期相悖，可能與台灣勞動市場結構及社會經濟背景相關，需進一步研究。基於橫斷面數據的世代效應分析，未能明確區分生命週期與生命歷程效應，未來應結合縱貫數據以更準確辨識世代特徵對經濟表現的影響，並探討其隨時間推移的動態變化。本研究深化了對台灣選民行為的理解，並為政策制定與後續研究提供了重要參考。

This study examines how economic performance, party identification, and generational effects influenced presidential satisfaction during Tsai Ing-wen's administration, utilizing frameworks of motivated reasoning and generational theories. The results show that supporters of "other" parties are most sensitive to economic changes, with satisfaction strongly tied to fluctuations in economic growth and the misery index. Conversely, KMT and DPP supporters exhibit stable responses, reflecting the predominance of party identification over economic indicators. DPP supporters report high satisfaction, while KMT supporters show the lowest during the DPP rule, emphasizing affective political biases. Generational analysis reveals that youth are more reactive to economic hardships, with satisfaction dropping significantly as the misery index rises. At the same time, older generations respond moderately, supporting life course and life cycle theories. However, unemployment's counterintuitive impact suggests Taiwan's unique labor market dynamics, meriting further study. Cross-sectional data limits the ability to distinguish life cycle from life course effects; future research should better leverage longitudinal data to capture generational dynamics over time. This study enhances understanding of Taiwanese voter behavior and provides actionable insights for policymakers.

一、 期刊
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六、 國科會專題研究計畫
蔡佳泓，2009，〈台灣民眾之政策偏好與政治行為之多層次貝式分析（第3年）〉，計畫編號：NSC 95-2414-H-004-047-SSS，台北：行政院國家科學委員會。