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研究生: 徐斌瑋
Hsu, Pin-Wei
論文名稱: 探討動能因子是否有助於解釋台股期望報酬—「殘餘動能」相對「近期52週動能」
Does Momentum Help Explain the Expected Returns of Taiwan Stocks? Residual Momentum vs. Recent 52-Week Momentum
指導教授: 顏盟峯
Yen, Meng-Feng
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2015
畢業學年度: 103
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 36
中文關鍵詞: 近期52週動能殘餘動能價值型投資聯合策略
外文關鍵詞: Recent 52-week momentum, Residual momentum, Value investing, Joint strategy
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  • 本研究欲探討當報酬計算起迄日為每日十號時,殘餘動能與近期52週動能策略是否在台灣股市中存在超額期望報酬,並進一步探討兩動能策略之間,是否存在支配關係。此外,並改良虞平輝 (2012) 所採用的MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International)多面向價值因子,重新檢視價值型投資是否存在超額期望報酬。最後,參考盧偉中(2013) 所採用價值與殘餘動能聯合策略,並延長研究期間,探討是否此聯合策略能較僅使用單一投資策略提升投資期望報酬。過往的研究在探討動能策略時,多探討Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) 所提出的原始報酬動能策略 (Raw return)。本研究參考Blitz et al. (2011) 所提出的殘餘動能與Bhootra 和Hur (2013)所提出的近期52週動能來做為動能的研究方法,分別利用此兩種動能投資策略於台灣股市中建構投資組合,結果顯示殘餘動能策略與近期52週動能之間沒有相互支配性,且在經過Fama and French (1993) 的三因子模型的風險調整後,兩策略亦可獲得顯著的超額期望報酬。而改良過後的價值型投資策略,期望報酬更高且更為顯著,最後,結果顯示動能策略加上價值型投資策略的聯合策略亦可獲得顯著的超額期望報酬。

    We examine the profitability of the residual momentum strategy and the recent 52-week momentum strategy in Taiwan based on a monthly return calculation basis, from every end of each calendar month to the tenth day of each calendar month and examine that there is whether any dominance between two strategies. In addition, we modify the sample selection of the value investing strategy used in Yu (2012) to reexamine the profitability. Finally, we follow the residual momentum strategy plus the value investing strategy proposed by Lu (2013) and prolong the sample period to examine the joint effects on profits. Previous papers explore the momentum strategy by using Jegadeesh and Titman's (1993) total return momentum. In this research, we follow the residual momentum strategy proposed by Blitz et al. (2011) and the 52-week momentum strategy proposed by Bhootra and Hur (2013), and use zero-cost investment strategy to construct the investment portfolio. The results confirm that there is no much evidence about the dominance between the residual momentum strategy and the recent 52-week momentum. The Fama-French alphas of two strategies are significant. We also find that profitability of the value investing strategy with modification is significantly higher. Finally, the joint strategy of the momentum strategy plus the value strategy still generates significantly abnormal returns.

    Contents 摘要 I Abstract II 誌謝 III 1.Introduction 1 1.1 Research background 1 1.2 Research Motivation and Purpose 2 2. Literature Review 4 2.1 Total return momentum 4 2.2 Residual Momentum 6 2.3 The 52-week high 6 2.4 Value Premium 7 3. Data and methodology 10 3.1 Data and variable construction 10 3.2Empirical methodology:A cross-sectional regression approach 12 4. Empirical Results 17 4.1 The profitability of the residual momentum and the recent 52-week high strategies 17 4.2 The relative profitability of the residual momentum and the recent 52-week high strategies. 19 4.3 The profitability of the value investing and the momentum strategies plus the value investing strategy.. 21 5. Conclusion and Suggestion 24 References 25   List of tables TABLE 1 THE PROFITABILITY OF THE RESIDUAL MOMENTUM STRATEGY 29 TABLE 2 THE PROFITABILITY OF THE RECENT 52-WEEK HIGH STRATEGY 30 TABLE 3 COMPARISON OF RESIDUAL MOMENTUM AND RECENT 52-WEEK HIGH STRATEGIES 31 TABLE 4 THE PROFITABILITY OF THE RESIDUAL MOMENTUM STRATEGY CONDITIONAL ON THE RECENT 52-WEEK HIGH STRATEGY 32 TABLE 5 THE PROFITABILITY OF THE VALUE INVESTING STRATEGY 34 TABLE 6 THE PROFITABILITY OF THE RESIDUAL MOMENTUM PLUS VALUE INVESTING STRATEGY 35 TABLE 7 THE PROFITABILITY OF THE RECENT 52-WEEK HIGH PLUS VALUE INVESTING STRATEGY 36

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