| 研究生: |
施伯杰 SHIH, Po-Chieh |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
以故障樹與事件樹分析法探討平交道事故風險 Exploring the Accident Risk at Railway Level Crossings Using Fault Tree and Event Tree Analysis |
| 指導教授: |
胡守任
Hu, Shou-Ren 鄭永祥 Cheng, Yung-Hsiang |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 交通管理科學系 Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science |
| 論文出版年: | 2008 |
| 畢業學年度: | 96 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 113 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 故障樹分析 、事件樹分析 、風險因素 、平交道 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | event tree analysis, risk factor, railway level crossing, fault tree analysis |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:148 下載:35 |
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鐵路平交道是傳統鐵路系統中,唯一與公路平面相交之共用空間,利用時間隔離管制車流,在無鐵路列車經過時開放供公路車輛使用;但鐵路列車接近時則擁有優先之通行權,往往產生公路車流之停等甚至延滯,若發生遮斷設備故障、公路車輛闖、搶越等事件,平交道風險隨即提高,甚至有發生交通事故之可能性。公路駕駛人的行為以及公、鐵路管制設備的妥善與否,可能是造成平交道交通事故的關鍵因素。
鑒於平交道事故衝擊的嚴重性,為改善平交道的交通安全問題,除了透過降低平交道事故發生機率與影響程度相關的研究外,藉由平交道資料的探索,分析平交道屬性與設備,以及公路側涉入型態與駕駛人行為等風險因素,與平交道事故發生之關係結構,亦可作為有關當局擬定平交道安全策略之參考,據以促進鐵、公路行車安全,達到維護用路人生命財產之目的。
本研究針對平交道風險因素進行分析,利用文獻回顧探索過去有關平交道事故風險評估、風險因素等分析方法與成果;由於國內缺乏將鐵路平交道各項設備與用路人行為整理成故障樹與事件樹之相關研究,本研究將藉由現地資料蒐集,輔以臺鐵提供之設備故障、平交道事故等統計資料,建構故障樹與事件樹等圖形,據以分析平交道風險因素與可能造成的後果。
本研究依據繪製出之相關圖形進行工程與執法改善後之機率估計,據以瞭解所彙整的各項因子對整體平交道危害風險的影響程度,並根據風險評估結果提出風險管理芻議,提供平交道相關管理單位(臺灣鐵路管理局、所轄公路主管機關)作為研提相關改善方案之參考。
The key factors that may affect the safety level of a railway level crossing may be highway-related (e.g. driving behavior) and railway-related (e.g. equipment failure). Railway level crossing is a spatial location where traffic interchange between railway and highway facilities. In general, trains have the absolute priority at level crossings, cars, cyclists, and pedestrians have to yield the right of way when trains are approaching. At a typical level crossing, it generally causes extra delay and traffic congestion. If the barrier fails or drivers are aggressively driving through level crossings, the risk associated with a railway level crossing may be rising therewith, or it even causes an accident at the level crossing area.
Because of the high impact of traffic accidents at railway level crossings, we try to find the risk factors by exploring the data of railway level crossing, and analyzing its equipments, attributes, highway-related driving behaviors, and geometric characteristics, etc. Accordingly, the administrator can prepare safety-improvement programs.
The study will analyze risk factors at railway level crossings, and conduct literature review to study the methodology and effort in evaluating risk levels or exploring risk factors. The researches by using event tree and fault tree analysis on the investigation of safety at level crossings were relatively insufficient. Therefore, finding the risk factors and its events by field investigation, accidents and equipments failure records by TRA is one of the key objectives of this study. Finally, this research will conduct sensitivity analysis to process these data in order to understand how these factors affect risk levels and the degrees of impact of a railway level crossing, and provide government agencies with desirable risk management strategies for safety improvement purposes.
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