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研究生: 黃幼琳
Huang, Yu-Lin
論文名稱: 信用風險與現金政策
Credit Risk and Cash Policy
指導教授: 陳嬿如
Chen, Yenn-Ru
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2014
畢業學年度: 102
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 60
中文關鍵詞: 信用風險現金配置公司績效
外文關鍵詞: Credit Risk, Cash Allocation, Corporate Performance
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  • 本論文第一部分係藉由分析公司現金在長短期投資上的分配決策來探討企業信用風險如何影響其現金配置決策。實證結果顯示當每增加一單位之現金,一般情況下公司傾向將比較多的比例分配在長期投資,而分配比較少的現金比例於短期營運資金需求。然而,當公司信用風險較高時,其現金配置在長期投資之比重將下降而分配在短期營運資金所需之現金部位將提高。進一步分析發現,信用風險對於現金配置在企業長短期投資上之差異效果主要是導因於獲利性所產生之不確定問題,而非現金流量不確定所產生之問題。
    第二部分則在探討信用風險對於企業未來績效之影響,主要透過信用風險如何影響投資-績效關係來進行驗證。實證結果發現信用風險將促使公司改善其投資決策品質,進一步可降低企業投資與未來績效之負向關連性,此效果主要發生於企業長期投資決策。換言之,本身信用風險較高的公司,其投資之邊際報酬之遞減程度將會較低信用風險公司來的緩慢。信用風險所帶的改善效果也顯示了負向投資績效關係主要傾向受市場錯誤評價所導致,而非理性投資理論所解釋。此外,實證結果在不同公司治理環境下仍不受影響。

    The first essay is to investigate how the corporate cash allocation changes with the credit risk by investigating the change of cash allocation into short run (SR) operating working capital and long run (LR) investments. The results indicate that firms generally tend to invest additional cash more in LR investments than in SR working capital. However, firms would decrease their cash allocation into LR investments and increase the allocation into SR working capital investments when they face higher credit risk than others. Furthermore, the cash allocation effect on SR and LR investments is mainly driven by the profitability problem instead of cash-flow problem. The credit risk caused by the cash-flow risk does not necessarily lead to the increased cash allocation into SR working capital investments, because firms under SR cash shortage can still raise funds to mitigate the liquidity problem as long as they have a good LR perspective.
    The second essay examines the effect of credit risk on corporate performance by testing the effect of credit risk on the relation between corporate investments and subsequent performance. The results demonstrate that the effect of credit risk is likely to enhance the quality of corporate investment decisions and thus improves the negative relation between corporate investments and corporate performance. The improvement of credit risk in such investment-performance relation is more associated with mispricing-explained theory than optimal investment theory. The findings are robust for firms under different corporate governance environment and marginally evidence that the improvement of credit risk in negative investment-performance relation is weaker in poorly-governed firms than that in well-governed firms.

    摘要 I ABSTRACT II 誌謝 III CONTENTS IV LIST OF TABLES V Essay I. Credit Risk and Cash Allocation I. Introduction 1 II. Literature and Hypothesis Development 4 A. The Cash Usage in Short-Run and Long-Run Policies 4 B. The Relation between Credit Risk and Cash Holdings 6 C. The Effect of Credit Risk on Cash Allocation in Short-Run and Long-Run Investments 7 III. Empirical Model and Data 10 A. Empirical Model and the Measurement of Credit Risk 10 B. The Sample and Statistics 13 IV. Empirical Results and Discussion 14 A. The Cash Allocation in Short-Run and Long-Run investments and the Effect of Credit Risk on Cash Allocation 14 B. The Impact of different uncertainty sources 15 C. Additional Tests 17 V. Conclusion 19 Reference 21 Essay II The Effect of Credit Risk and Corporate Performance I. Introduction 32 II. Literature and Hypothesis Development 34 A. Corporate Investments and Corporate Performance 34 B. Credit Risk and Corporate Investment Decisions 35 C. Hypothesis Development 37 III. Sample and Empirical Model 38 A. Sample 38 B. Empirical Model 38 C. Statistics Analysis 39 IV. Empirical Results and Discussion 39 A. The Effect of Credit Risk on the Relation between Investments and Performance 39 B. Two-stage Analysis 40 C. Additional Tests 42 V. Conclusion 44 Reference 45

    Essay I. Credit Risk and Cash Allocation
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    Essay II The Effect of Credit Risk and Corporate Performance
    Almeida, H., M. Campello, and M. Weisbach.(2004). "The cash flow sensitivity of cash."Journal of Finance 59, 1777–1804.
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    Almeida, H. and T. Philippon.(2007). "The risk-adjusted cost of financial distress."Journal of Fiannce 62(6):2557-2586.
    Akta, N., E.Bodt, F. Lobez and J.C.Statnik.(2012). "The information content of trade credit."Journal of Banking and Finance36: 1402-1413.
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    Denis, D. J. and V. Sibilkov (2010)."Financial Constraints, Investment, and the Value of Cash Holdings."Review of Financial Studies 23: 247-269.
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    Harford, J., S. A. Mansi, and W. F. Maxwell (2008). "Corporate governance and firm cash holdings in the US." Journal of Financial Economics 87(3): 535-555.
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    Jensen, M.C., and W.H. Meckling. (1976). "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs, and capital structure."Journal of Financial Economics 3: 305–360.
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    Lins, K., H. Servaes, and P. Tufano. (2010). "What drives corporate liquidity? An international survey of cash holdings and lines of credit."Journal of Financial Economics 98, 160–176.
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    Molina, C.A. and L.A. Preve.(2009). "Trade receivables policy of distressed firms and its effect on the costs of financial distress."Financial Management 38(3):663-686.
    Myers, S.C., (1977)."Determinants of Corporate Borrowing."Journal of Financial Economics 5, 147-175.
    Ng, C.K., Smith, J.K., Smith, R.L., 1999. Evidence on the determinants of credit terms used in interfirm trade. Journal of Finance 54, 1109–1129.
    Nilsen, J.H. (2002). "Trade credit and the bank lending channel."Journal of Money,Credit, and Banking 34: 226–253.
    Nini, G., D. Smith, and A. Sufi.(2009). "Creditor Control Rights and Firm Investment Policy."Journal of Financial Economics 92:400–420.
    Opler, T., L., Pinkowitz, R., Stulz, and R., Williamson.(1999). "The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings." Journal of Financial Economics 52, 3–46.
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    Sufi, A., (2009). "Bank lines of credit in corporate finance: an empirical analysis." Review of Financial Studies 22, 1057–1088.
    Titman, J., J. Wei and F. Xie.(2004). "Captial investments and stock returns."Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 39:677-700.

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