全球氣候暖化改變全球水循環和降水模式，這種變化可能比溫度更直接地影響生態系統和人類福祉。東亞夏季季風（East Asia Summer Monsson, EASM）在全球季風系統中極為活躍，它的動態大規模影響東亞水文特徵、生態系統穩定性、農業生產、人類活動與極端氣候災害。在全球快速變暖的趨勢下，EASM的水文氣候可能變得更不可預測與潛藏災難性，瞭解EASM降雨的長期動態與影響機制具有重大的社會和科學意義。然而，百年尺度的儀器觀測記錄無法呈現EASM長期的自然變異、它與其他氣候系統的關係，難以推斷它對當前和未來全球氣候變遷的反應；目前EASM長期、高品質的氣候代理紀錄仍極為稀少。本研究以取自台灣－EASM的中心位置－的樹輪穩定氧同位素（δ18Otr），重建過去數百年、高解析度的EASM降水變化；依序探討樹輪氧同位素反應氣候的機制，重建歷史氣候以解讀地景與社會變遷，最後指出五百年來太平洋年代際振盪(Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)調節聖嬰與南方震盪(El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO)、及其與EASM降雨的關係，對EASM的自然變異與人為氣候變遷影響提出新的見解。
在第二章，我探討控制東亞地區δ18Otr變化的主要機制－究竟是源水上游條件或各地氣候因素決定δ18Otr訊號，這在解讀熱帶和亞洲季風氣候區的氣候重建一直存在高度爭議。我從臺灣開發了一個橫跨100年的、具有年度解析度的δ18Otr資料集；這個資料集取自不同樹種、緯度、海拔與氣候區，時間涵括了整個20世紀和21世紀初，從而有利於與儀器的氣候記錄進行比較。δ18Otr的資料序列呈現出高度相關與一致的氣候反應，表明大尺度的氣候因素主要控制δ18Otr而不是局部因素。δ18Otr很好地反應夏季季風降水，且是來自上游區域的動態、而非本地雨量，說明上游降水過程在控制各地δ18Otr變化中的廣泛影響。這個發現釐清δ18Otr和其他自然代用指標中複雜的氣候訊號，對東亞以及熱帶季風地區的樹輪氣候學有重要意涵。另外，大尺度的海洋與大氣作用，如ENSO和西北太平洋副熱帶高壓（The Western North Pacific Subtropical High, WNPSH）的動態對δ18Otr訊號有很直接的影響。這個結果一方面解釋δ18Otr訊號的空間一致性來自相當距離的上游條件，也表明臺灣的δ18Otr是研究海洋和大氣作用下，EASM長期變化的良好氣候代理。
第三章擴展了δ18Otr反應源水上游條件的發現，探討氣候因素如何作用於臺灣西南部沿海快速的地景與社會變遷。臺灣西南部的台江內海原為荷據時期重要的航運、貿易轉運站，但在兩百年內快速消失，現已成為嘉南平原與都市用地。這段滄海桑田的過程，在史籍上僅有1823年大雨造成台江浮覆的記錄，對應的歷史氣候資訊極為缺乏。我分析阿里山δ18Otr訊號發現，它反應台灣南部的降水與河流流量，並可良好重建過去400年的降水變化。重建結果顯示，兩個不尋常的高頻率強暴雨期發生在西元1730年代和1820年代，與倒風和台江內海的消失時間相符。但另一方面，近期台灣海岸反而面臨嚴重侵蝕，除人為因素以外，氣候重建結果也指出，20世紀末正面臨過去四個世紀以來最嚴重的乾旱，可能造成低窪地帶流量和沉積物的減少，從而加劇海岸侵蝕。氣候可透過快速改變地景、參與社會變遷的過程，造成氣候變遷調適的多元挑戰，沿海管理策略尤其應考慮降水變化帶來的地景衝擊。
在第四章，我探討人為氣候暖化是否作用於近期增強的ENSO-EASM關係；這個現象背後的原因，在百年的氣候紀錄與分析中一直沒有結論。我擴展了臺灣東南部的δ18Otr記錄至過去五百年，並重建EASM相關的降水。與PDO和ENSO代用指標的比較表明，過去五百年來，PDO是ENSO-EASM關係非穩定的原因；正（負）PDO階段增強（解構）了這種關係；ENSO-EASM關係的增強與PDO和ENSO的高振幅同時存在。重要的是，目前的增強關係仍然落在其自然範圍內，表明內部驅力的作用，因此區分EASM降水的人為影響和自然作用仍然具有挑戰性。這個發現填補了PDO-ENSO-EASM關係的知識缺口，對從機制上理解季風降雨、以及預測東亞地區未來的氣候變化至關重要。

Global warming could increase atmospheric moisture, changing the global hydrological cycle and precipitation pattern. Such changes might directly affect the ecosystem and human well-being more than temperature. As the most dynamic component of the global monsoon system, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variability accompanies by hydroclimatic hazards, influencing all aspects of hydroclimatology, ecology, and human activities in East Asia. The hydroclimate in EASM may become more disastrous and unpredictable under the global warming context. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of EASM precipitation and improving our ability to predict EASM is of great social and scientific interest. However, the sparse and short observational records preclude our understanding of long-term EASM variability and how it responds to current and future global warming. Long-term, high-quality proxy-based EASM reconstructions are desperately needed.
In this dissertation, using stable oxygen isotope ratio in tree-ring cellulose (δ18Otr), I investigated the mechanism by which δ18Otr in Taiwan served as an excellent EASM proxy and reconstructed EASM precipitation over the past few centuries. I demonstrated how δ18Otr responds to upstream precipitation and large-scale atmosphere-ocean interactions instead of local precipitation. I reconstructed the historical climates to interpret the significant influences of EASM precipitation on the rapid geomorphological and social changes. Finally, I provided evidence that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) persistently modulated the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and EASM rainfall over the past 500 years. Overall, I demonstrated that δ18Otr from Taiwan is a powerful tool to decipher EASM precipitation changes on inter-annual to centennial timescales. The results provide crucial insights into the dynamics of EASM precipitation under natural and anthropogenic forcings, which are essential for the mechanistic understanding of the current condition and better predicting future climate change over the East Asia region.
In chapter 2, I developed a 100-year precise-dated, annual-resolved δ18Otr network from different species and locations in Taiwan, the heart of EASM. The δ18Otr continuously covered the entire 20th and early 21st centuries, thus facilitating comparison with the climate data recorded by instruments. The primary purpose of this chapter is to decipher the controversial climate factors controlling the variation of δ18Otr in the East Asia region. The δ18Otr network exhibited high inter-correlation and similar climate response, albeit with distinct species, latitudes, altitudes, and local climates, suggesting that common climate factors at a large scale control the δ18Otr rather than local factors. Climate response analyses found that the δ18Otr captured well the summer monsoon climates; precipitation was the most dominant factor controlling the δ18Otr variations. Importantly, I revealed that the δ18Otr reflects regional precipitation over the upstream moisture instead of local precipitation, highlighting the substantial role of the upstream rainout process in controlling local δ18Otr variations. I demonstrated that δ18Otr is a good proxy for upstream regional precipitation rather than a proxy of local precipitation. The finding disentangles the complicated climate signal in δ18Otr and other natural proxies that have been controversial over tropical and Asian monsoonal regions. The results presented here have important implications for the dendroclimatological field in East Asia and tropical monsoon regions.
As another noteworthy finding in Chapter 2, I found large-scale oceanic and atmospheric forcings such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) have a strong influence on the δ18Otr variation. This result may explain the spatial coherent signal δ18Otr from the considerable distance over Asia monsoon. The finding demonstrated that the δ18Otr proxy from Taiwan is a good proxy to examine the mechanism of EASM variability under oceanic and atmospheric forcings (see Chapter 4).
Chapter 3 expands on the finding of the upstream regional precipitation signal in δ18Otr. I extended the Alishan δ18Otr record, which allowed me to reconstruct 400-year precipitation and decode the role of climate factors in landscape changes of coastal southwestern Taiwan over a long history. Interestingly, the reconstruction reveals two unusual periods of high frequent and intense heavy rainfall during the 1730s and 1820s CE, which resulted in the disappearances of Daofeng and Taijiang Inner Seas in southwest Taiwan. The late 20th century was characterized as the most severe drought over the past four centuries, together with human factors, which may additionally cause the reduction of flow and sediments in the lowland, thus exacerbating the coastal erosion problem of the Island recently. The results indicated climate as a contributing factor to landscape changes in the region over the past 400 years, suggesting precipitation variability should be considered in coastal management strategies.
In Chapter 4, I investigated whether anthropogenic warming contributes to the recently enhanced ENSO-EASM relationship. The mechanism behind this phenomenon has been controversial in the century-long climate records. I generated 500-year δ18Otr records from southeastern Taiwan and reconstructed the EASM-related precipitation. Comparing with the well-established PDO and ENSO proxies from the Pacific basin revealed that the PDO was responsible for the nonstationary ENSO-EASM precipitation relationship over the past half-millennium. The positive (negative) PDO phase augmented (deconstructed) the relationship. Notably, the present enhanced ENSO-EASM relationship was concurrent with high PDO and ENSO amplitude and fell within its natural range, implying the essential role of internal variability. The distinction between anthropogenic and natural influence remains challenging. These findings fill a knowledge gap in the PDO-ENSO-EASM relationship. Predicting ENSO and EASM precipitation should consider the modulation effects of PDO.

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