本研究探討總體經濟指標變動與3C通路產業的股價變動及產業營收變動之間的關聯，研究樣本期間自2002年3月至2010年12月，共計106筆月資料，以自行彙編的3C通路產業股價指數、3C通路產業營收、領先指標綜合指數、批發業營業額指數、消費者物價指數、消費者信心指數作為研究變數，藉由建立VAR模型，配合運用Granger因果關係檢定、衝擊反應分析、預測誤差變異數分解對實證結果加以分析。
實證研究結果發現: 1.領先指標具有領先3C通路產業股價指數的功用，且衝擊反應中為正向持續性的衝擊，故可做為投資人決策時的參考依據。2.批發業營業額指數領先3C通路產業營收發生變動，衝擊反應僅在當期有明顯正向衝擊，亦可供管理當局預測營收參考。

ABSTRACT
This study aims to explore the relationship among the macroeconomic indicators, revenue and stock price of 3C distribution industry. The sample period is from March 2002 to December 2010 and a total of 106 monthly data is collected. We construct a VAR model which consists of six endogenous variables—stock price of 3C distribution industry index, revenue of 3C distribution industry index, composite index of leading indicators, sales index of wholesale trade, consumer price index, consumer confidence index. In addition, we use Granger causality test, variance decomposition, and impulse function. The following conclusions can be drawn from the empirical data:
1.Composite index of leading indicators seems to lead the stock price of 3C distribution industry index, and it has a positive and continuous impact on the stock price of 3C distribution industry index. The investors may take the composite index of leading indicators for reference when making investment decisions.
2.Sales index of wholesale trade seems to lead the revenue of 3C distribution industry index, but it only has a positive impact in the current period. The management may take the sales index of wholesale trade for reference when forecasting the revenue.

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