近年來國道鋪面的養護經費隨著鋪面面積的增加而增加，然而增加的經費有越來越趕不上新建與養護道路所需的花費，國道養護單位中的鋪面工程師為了節省經費經常面對的問題是，哪些路段需要修、什麼時候該修以及要怎麼修，目前執行上往往依據鋪面工程師的個人經驗挑出需要維修的路段，但是沒有足夠經驗的工程師很難做出正確的判斷，所以需要建立一套以績效為基礎的鋪面管理系統協助鋪面工程師預測鋪面未來的劣化趨勢和評估鋪面未來的狀況，本研究利用2006至2010年之高速公路外車道國際糙度指標檢測結果進行可靠度分析，其結果顯示，以國際糙度指標之門檻值3.5與假設破壞機率達到百分之二十五視為鋪面需要維修的條件下，失效資料分析的結果中，國道一號順向北、中及南區的平均服務壽命分別為4.9、4.6及1.6年，國道一號逆向北、中及南區的平均服務壽命分別為2.5、4.8及0.8年，國道三號順向北、中及南區的平均服務壽命分別為2.6、2.4及1.6年，國道三號逆向北、中及南區的平均服務壽命分別為2.4、2.8及2.9年，退化模型分析的結果中，國道一號順向北、中及南區的平均服務壽命分別為2.6、3.4及1.6年，國道一號逆向北、中及南區的平均服務壽命分別為2.5、3.8及1.2年，國道三號順向北、中及南區的平均服務壽命分別為3.4、4.3及1.3年，國道三號逆向北、中及南區的平均服務壽命分別為3.2、3.4及2.4年，兩種可靠度分析方法的結果所推算出的平均壽命大部分都介於2~5年之間，與鋪面工程師依照經驗進行鋪面維修的週期接近。

In Taiwan, due to the rapid increased highway network in the past ten years as well as aging of the highway infrastructure, Taiwan Area National Freeway Bureau (TANFB) has encountered great challenge to maintain their highway network in good condition. The major challenge for pavement engineers is to maintain good condition of roadway with least costs. In order to estimate maintenance cost for whole highway network, it is important to know when and how much percent of pavement network fails in the future. In this study, two reliability analysis approaches (failure-time analysis as well as degradation analysis) were performed to estimate the network level pavement service life based on international roughness index (IRI) data collected from the outer lane of Taiwan’s national freeway network during 2006 to 2010. The pavement maintenance threshold of 3, 3.5, and 4 m/km and failure probability 25 percent were used to estimate the pavement service life for pavements in the north, central and south district of national freeway system. The results of failure-time analysis shown that the predicted pavement service life for the north, central and south district of southbound freeway one are 4.9, 4.6 and 1.6 years; of the northbound freeway one are 2.5, 4.8 and 0.8 years; of the southbound freeway three are 2.6, 2.4 and 1.6 years, and of the northbound freeway three are 2.4, 2.6 and 2.9 years. For the degradation analysis, the estimated pavement service life of north, central and south district of freeway one southbound are 2.6, 3.4 and 1.6 years; of freeway one northbound are 2.5, 3.8 and 1.2 years; of freeway three southbound are 3.4, 4.3 and 1.3 years; and of freeway three northbound are 3.2, 3.4 and 2.4 years. In general, both approaches estimate pavement service life of 2 to 5 years that is similar to the maintenance frequency currently adopted by the expert engineers in the TANFB.

ASTM-D6433. (2009). Standard Practice for Roads and Parking Lots Pavement Condition Index Surveys.
Beach, Adam Charles, Baladi, Gilbert Y, Dawson, Tyler A, Dean, Christopher M, Haider, PE, Waqar, Syed, & Chatti, Karim. (2012). Strategy Analysis Using Treatment Transition Matrices of In-service Pavement Condition Data. Paper presented at the Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting.
Freitas, Marta A, de Toledo, Maria Luíza G, Colosimo, Enrico A, & Pires, Magda C. (2009). Using degradation data to assess reliability: a case study on train wheel degradation. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 25(5), 607-629.
Guide, Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design. (2008). Interim edition: A manual of practice. AASHTO, Washington, DC(500), 1000.
Haas, Ralph, Hudson, W Ronald, & Zaniewski, John P. (1994). Modern pavement management.
Hong, HP, & Wang, SS. (2003). Stochastic modeling of pavement performance. International Journal of Pavement Engineering, 4(4), 235-243.
Huang, Yang Hsien. (1993). Pavement analysis and design.
Jain, SS, Aggarwal, Sanjiv, & Parida, M. (2005). HDM-4 pavement deterioration models for Indian National Highway Network. Journal of transportation engineering, 131(8), 623-631.
Kharoufeh, Jeffrey P, Solo, Christopher J, & Ulukus, M Yasin. (2010). Semi-Markov models for degradation-based reliability. IIE Transactions, 42(8), 599-612.
Khattak, Mohammad Jamal, Nur, Mohammad Abdullah, Bhuyan, Mohammad Reza-Ul-Karim, & Gaspard, Kevin. (2013). International roughness index models for HMA overlay treatment of flexible and composite pavements. International Journal of Pavement Engineering, 15(4), 334-344. doi: 10.1080/10298436.2013.842237
Lu, C Joseph, Meeker, William Q, & Escobar, Luis A. (1996). A comparison of degradation and failure-time analysis methods for estimating a time-to-failure distribution. Statistica Sinica, 6(3), 531-546.
Lytton, Robert L. (1987). Concepts of pavement performance prediction and modeling. Paper presented at the Proc., 2nd North American Conference on Managing Pavements.
Meeker, William Q, & Escobar, Luis A. (1998). Statistical methods for reliability data (Vol. 314): John Wiley & Sons.
Romanoschi, Stefan A, & Metcalf, John B. (2000). Evaluation of probability distribution function for the life of pavement structures. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1730(1), 91-98.
Sayers, Michael W, Gillespie, Thomas D, & Paterson, William DO. (1986). Guidelines for conducting and calibrating road roughness measurements.
Smith, K L, Peshkin, D, Wolters, A, Krstulovich, J, Moulthrop, J, & Alvarado, C. (2011). SHRP 2 Report S2-R26-RR-1: Preservation Approaches for High-Traffic-Volume Roadways: The National Academies Press.
Yang, Jidong, Gunaratne, Manjriker, Lu, Jian John, & Dietrich, Bruce. (2005). Use of recurrent Markov chains for modeling the crack performance of flexible pavements. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 131(11), 861-872.
交通部中央氣象局. (2014). 氣候統計資料. 2011, from http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7/
交通部臺灣區高速公路局. (2014). 日交通量參考值. 2011, from http://www.freeway.gov.tw/
余政儒. (1994). 瀝青混凝土添加石灰耐久性之研究. (碩士), 國立中央大學, 桃園縣.
吳政忠. (2013). 應用可靠度方法發展國道鋪面服務壽命預測模型 － 以不完整之國際糙度指標歷史資料為例. (碩士), 國立成功大學, 台南市.
周少凡. (1998). 模糊集理論於鋪面表面狀況評估之應用. (碩士), 國立成功大學, 台南市.
林勝傑. (2001). 類神經網路與馬可夫鍊理論於鋪面狀況評估之應用. (碩士), 國立成功大學, 台南市.
侯洸廷. (2002). 灰預測理論於鋪面評估之應用. 成功大學土木工程學系學位論文, 1-75.
翁田山. (2004). 產品可靠度. 品質月刊, 40(11).
國立中央大學土木系. (2014). 台灣鋪面管理系統平台. 2012, from http://140.115.60.204/n-pms/Default.aspx
黃山琿. (1998). 馬可夫鍊理論在鋪面管理系統中之應用. (碩士), 國立成功大學, 台南市.
蔣子平. (1999). 類神經及模糊集理論於評估柔性鋪面裂縫破壞之應用. (碩士), 國立成功大學, 台南市.
蔣子平. (2004). 建構台灣區國道鋪面績效指標及平坦度預測模式之研究.