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研究生: 吳佩芝
Wu, Pei-Chih
論文名稱: 氣候變遷與氣候條件對生物性危害因子及其相關疾病之影響
Effects of Climate Change andWeather Variability on Biological Agents and their Related Health Effects
指導教授: 蘇慧貞
Su, Huey-Jen
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 醫學院 - 環境醫學研究所
Department of Environmental and Occupational Health
論文出版年: 2006
畢業學年度: 94
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 175
中文關鍵詞: 真菌孢子氣喘傳染性疾病生物性危害氣候變遷氣象因子
外文關鍵詞: infectious diseases, fungal spores, asthma, climate change, weather parameters, biological hazards
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  • 全球氣候變遷可能直接或間接的衝擊人類生存條件及健康,其中氣象因子的改變可能影響自然生態及環境中植物、動物及各類微生物之繁衍生長情形、分布及傳染途徑,導致疾病流行的嚴重程度與分布因而改變。特別是透過水及蟲為媒介傳播之疾病對於氣候條件之變異特別敏感,而氣候變遷伴隨著各類生態系統之變化及對於生物多樣性之影響,亦可能間接影響微生物與各物種間之平衡狀態,進一步對人類族群帶來人畜共通與新興傳染病之危害。氣候暖化及其所伴隨之雨量變化也間接影響植物及各類微生物之生長情形,平均溫度上升除了會影響到植物的生長週期外,也進一步會影響其開花及產生之花粉量,許多的異常氣候事件亦會影響到大氣中真菌孢子及花粉等過敏源的組成及含量,因而對過敏性呼吸道疾病如氣喘等造成衝擊。
    本研究彙整台灣各類現有的疾病監視系統、醫院每日門診、氣象因子及環境量測因子之時序性資料,並利用地理資訊系統整合各項因子之空間分布資料,用以分析探討氣象因子與極端天氣事件對於生物性危害因子及其相關疾病之影響。就蟲媒疾病而言,利用時序性分析發現每月之平均最低溫、相對溼度及最高溫與登革熱之每月發生率有顯著的相關性,而該時序性模式套用每月氣象因子參數亦可有效預測未來每月的發生率。另外,較溫暖的冬天及人口密度亦是決定登革熱流行空間分布之重要影響因子,而隨著全島平均溫度及人口密度提升,預測將可能使登革熱流行傳播地區因而擴展增加。就水媒傳播疾病而言,雨量的減少與桿菌性痢疾流行地區案例的增加呈現顯著相關。另外,暴雨事件及長時間低降水量亦可能導致民生用地下水源受到糞便污染而爆發大規模之桿菌性痢疾疫情。上述之相關性探討與模式分析,未來可配合情境模擬及氣象模式推估預測,進一步應用於傳染性疾病疫情預警系統中。
    本研究長期監測南部地區大氣中真菌孢子濃度,相關分析結果亦顯示台灣地區大氣中真菌孢子在沙塵暴事件中顯著升高,組成亦有明顯之改變,而隨著懸浮微粒濃度升高,特定真菌孢子濃度亦隨之升高。而利用台灣第一個完整監測每日真菌孢子組成及濃度之資料庫,本研究亦針對個別真菌孢子,利用時序性分析建構出結合氣象因子之預測模式,此模式在臨床過敏性疾病的預防上,可應用於建立每日真菌孢子濃度之預報系統。而終年的累積雨量及累積溫度對於Ascospores 及Botrytis 終年累積濃度有非常顯著之正相關,顯示若天氣持續暖化將有助於增加大氣中特定真菌孢子之總量。本研究亦發現每日監測之真菌孢子濃度亦與每日門診之氣喘人次有顯著之正相關,此相關性並且在兒童族群最為顯著,並隨著年齡層升高而相關性明顯降低。另外,本研究亦發現真菌孢子與空氣污染同時暴露的情況下,對於每日氣喘門診人次之升高有一加乘效應。
    本研究利用一系列之資料蒐集與分析,針對氣象因子或異常天氣事件影響生物性危害相關疾病之問題一一提出佐證,此研究提供相關氣象變遷對於地區性健康危害之潛在衝擊相關證據,依據這些相關性模式與劑量效應關係,可提供未來在地區性適應方案及疾病預防措施研擬上相當重要之依據。

    Global climate change has been implicated in altering environment and ecosystem, and resulted in significant impacts on human health. As climatic factors may influence vegetation and habitats in ecosystem, many biological agents with great potential to threaten human health, such as fungi, bacteria, and viruses, are also sensitive responders to climate change as their growth rates and transmission patterns can easily be affected with various severity. Meanwhile, many of these microbial agents are known to be directly or indirectly engaged in triggering an array of biological effects that are often considered attributable to the occurrence of several important health outcomes, including those mediated by infectious agents such as water-borne and vector-borne microbes, and effects associated with airborne pollens and fungal spores. How the pattern and degree of climate change around the world, in a global, regional, or local level, may affect the frequency and distribution of the above-mentioned health outcomes have become the center of interest in different parts of the world.
    In this study, Geography Information System (GIS) was applied to integrate existing databases of health surveillance, climatic and environmental measurements in Taiwan to study the effects of weather variability and extreme weather events on biological agents and their related health effects. For vector borne diseases, monthly weather parameters, including minimum temperature, relative humidity, and maximum temperature, were good predictors for higher incidence of dengue fever in epidemic area in ARIMA model. The prediction model could also forecast the incidence for the upcoming years with good fitness. Moreover, warmer winter and higher population density seemed to be the determinants for identifying the spatial distribution of epidemic areas in Taiwan. Along with rising population density, increasing island-wide temperature might therefore contribute to geographical expansion of dengue fever transmission. For water/ food borne diseases, less rainfall was found to be a potential risk factors contributing to the increase of shigellosis in vulnerable areas. Excessive rainfall and dry season might be also associated with the large-scale outbreak of shigellosis that has been identified due to contamination in underground water. Based on these findings and models, we could develop a climate-based early warning system (EWS) for infectious diseases to predicting the temporal variability and geographical distribution in diseases incidence under a range of scenarios corresponding to future climate changes.
    For the impacts of weather variability on aeroallergens, this present study demonstrated extreme weather events like dust storm from China would significantly increase regional atmospheric fungal spore levels, mostly through the rise of some particular fungal species. Such an observation was considered indirect evidence proposing the contribution of dust storms on ambient fungal spores. Our aeroallergens monitoring database was the first dataset conducted in Taiwan to create an annual calendar for daily ambient fungal spores. Based on this valuable database, we constructed a reliable model to predicted daily ambient level for each fungal spore while also taking into account the metrological factors using time-series analysis. Inter-annual variation could be expected for total yields of Ascospores and Botrytis as they were highly correlated with accumulated degrees of temperature and the amount of rainfall on an annual basis. This information could provide a precaution for improving other avoidance strategy for those allergic subjects. The clinical visit of asthma was found to be associated with the increase of ambient fungal spores, and young children appeared to be the more vulnerable population to such an exposure. A synergistic effect from ambient fungal spores and particulate matter pollution on the elevated risk of clinic visits due to asthma was also observed.
    This research has generated a series of evidences on the potential health impacts mediated by biological agents while their distributions might have been also heavily associated with weather variability and extreme weather events in Taiwan. These assessments have not only provided a factual linkage between climate changes and health impacts, but also demonstrated specific dose-response relationships, from which a preventive strategy can be effectively formed for vulnerable populations in anticipation of more rapid change of climate in our geographic region.

    1 Overviews of the study 1 2 Weather variability and Infectious Diseases 10 2.1 Introduction 10 2.1.1 Vector-borne diseases 10 2.1.2 Water-/food- borne diseases 12 2.2 Overview of study framework and methodology 14 2.2.1 Data collection 18 3 The effects of weather variability on the occurrence and distribution of vector borne diseases in Taiwan 21 3.1 Weather variability and size of epidemic of dengue fever in Kaohsiung City 24 3.1.1 Introduction 24 3.1.2 Materials and Methods 25 3.1.3 Results 29 3.1.4 Discussion 35 3.1.5 Conclusions 40 3.2 Weather variability and distribution of dengue fevers in Taiwan 41 3.2.1 Introduction 41 3.2.2 Material and Methods 43 3.2.3 Results 47 3.2.4 Discussion 56 3.2.5 Conclusions 61 4 The effects of weather variability on the occurrence and distribution of food borne/water borne diseases in Taiwan 62 4.1 The effects of demographic, environmental, and weather variability on the distribution and the size of epidemic of shigellosis in Taiwan 66 4.1.1 Introduction 66 4.1.2 Materials and Methods 67 4.1.3 Results and Discussion 70 4.2 Weather variability and outbreak of Shigellosis in Taiwan 84 4.2.1 Introduction 84 4.2.2 Materials and Methods 84 4.2.3 Results and Discussion 86 5 Climate Variability, Aeroallergens, and their Impacts on the Burdens of Allergic Diseases 94 5.1 The effects of sandstorm events from China on atmospheric fungal spores in southern Taiwan 95 5.1.1 Introduction 95 5.1.2 Material and Methods 96 5.1.3 Results 98 5.1.4 Discussion 104 5.1.5 Conclusions 109 5.2 Weather variability and dynamics of daily fungal spores 109 5.2.1 Introduction 110 5.2.2 Materials and Methods 111 5.2.3 Results 113 5.2.4 Discussion 124 5.3 The effects of weather, aeroallergens, and air pollutions on daily clinic visits of asthma 130 5.3.1 Introduction 130 5.3.2 Materials and Methods 131 5.3.3 Results 133 5.3.4 Discussion 141 6 Summary of significant findings 147 7 References 151

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