| 研究生: |
李昱勳 Lee, Yu-Hsun |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
登革熱疫情的數學建模及計算 Mathematical Modeling and Computational Issues of Dengue Epidemic |
| 指導教授: |
舒宇宸
Shu, Yu-Chen |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
理學院 - 數學系應用數學碩博士班 Department of Mathematics |
| 論文出版年: | 2018 |
| 畢業學年度: | 106 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 20 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 登革熱 、傳染病模型 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Dengue Fever, Epidemic Model |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:106 下載:21 |
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2015 年,台南市爆發了嚴重的登革熱疫情。根據疫情的開放資料,我們發現了一些有趣的現象。我們使用 SEIR 模型並調整有效接觸率之參數,使其結果能與每日新增病例數吻合。藉由比較最佳化求出之有效接觸率及台南市政府所做之化學防治時間,我們發現有效接觸率之下降與政府防疫作為有正面相關。此外,我們比較了各區疫情的嚴重度,並找到了傳染趨勢與化學防治之間的關聯性。在未來,我們可以 整合多尺度方法與其他資料,如:地圖資料、社交資訊、天氣等,來建立異質資料 的多尺度傳染病模型。
Tainan experienced severe dengue epidemics in 2015. According to the open data, some interesting issues are found. We use Susceptible - Exposed - Infected - Recovered (SEIR) model and adjust the parameters in the effective contact rate to fit historical data. By comparing the trend of the optimized effective contact rate and the dates of the epidemic prevention works by the government, the decay after prevention works gives a positive evidence for those works of government. We also compare the severity of each districts, and the relationship between the trend of epidemics and the chemical prevention is found.
In the future, we will integrate the multi-scale method with different information, such as geographic map, social information, and climate to establish a multi-scale heterogeneous epidemic model and discuss its computational efficiency and related error analysis.
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