由於近年來有學者指出，黃金價格與某些總體變數之間的關係，已經開始產生不同的改變，例如：一般預期美元匯率與黃金價格為負向關係，然而近年來卻產生逆向走勢，因此本研究目的主要爲了探討關係的轉變是否只是短暫的現象，以及黃金價格是否發生結構性改變。首先，建立一多元迴歸模型，以黃金價格為被解釋變數，美元匯率、利率、白銀價格、國際原油價格和消費者物價指數月增加率則為解釋變數。並將樣本期間分成1970-1990年及1991-2006年兩段時期，比較前後時期的預期符號是否發生差異，之後並導入虛擬變數，檢定國際重大事件是否已對黃金價格的影響力減弱；最後，以1990年為主要的分水嶺，利用Chow Test及虛擬變數之檢定方式檢驗兩段樣本期間的黃金價格是否發生結構性的改變。實證結果如下：
一、2005年的黃金價格與美元匯率的正向走勢可能只是短暫的現象，長期來說，兩者關係仍維持負向關係。
二、2004年上半年金價與油價有明顯不同步的情況，可能也屬於短暫現象，長期結果下，黃金價格與原油價格仍維持正向關係。
三、以1991-2006年為樣本期間，發現白銀與黃金價格具有共整合關係，表示兩者之間仍具有長期穩定關係。
四、1991-2006年的黃金價格與消費者物價指數月增加率仍具有長期共整合關係。
五、1991年後，國際重大事件對黃金價格的影響並不顯著。
六、1970-1990及1991-2006此兩階段整體的黃金價格並未發生結構性改變。
七、就個別變數檢定之後，消費者物價指數月增率、西德州中級原油價格和白銀價格皆會對黃金價格之迴歸模型，產生結構性的影響。

Recent studies indicate that the relationship between the price of gold and some macroeconomic factors are changing. Generally, for example, the relationship between the price of gold and exchange rate measured in US dollars is negative. However, something happened in opposite direction in recent years. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to explore whether the different relationship is temporary phenomenon and whether there is a structural changing on the price of gold. The price of gold in this multiple regression model is regarded as dependent variable, and exchange rate, interest rate, silver price, crude oil price and CPI monthly growth rate are independent variables. The sample periods are divided into two periods to check if there is difference in expected sign between before and after. The first period arranged from 1970 to 1990, and the second period is from 1991 to 2006. In addition, this study employs dummy variables to test if world great events have minor impacts on the price of gold. Finally, Chow Test and dummy variables are mainly used to test if there is a structural change in the price of gold. The research results indicate as follows：

1.The relationship between the price of gold and exchange rate measured in US dollars in 2005 is positive belongs to temporary phenomenon. In the long run, both of them maintain the negative relationship.
2.The negative relationship between the price of gold and crude oil price in first half of 2004 also belongs to temporary phenomenon. In the long term, they still maintain the positive relationship.
3.Taking 1991-2006 as a sample period, there is a cointegration relationship between the price of gold and silver, that is, they have a long-term and stable relationship.
4.There is a cointegration relationship between the price of gold and CPI monthly growth rate from 1991 to 2006.
5.After 1991, the world great events have insignificant impacts on the price of gold.
6.There is a structural changing on the price of gold between 1970-1990 and 1991-2006.
7.After employing dummy variables to test stability of regression coefficients, the results indicate that CPI monthly growth rate, crude oil price, and the price of silver all have structural change effect on the regression model.

一、中文文獻
1.謝劍平，「黃金價格與黃金股票報酬率金之價格彈性關係」，台灣經濟金融月刊，第31卷，第7~12期，1995年9月，頁20-27。
2.康信鴻，陳雍仁，“台灣黃金市場、外匯市場與總體變數相互關係之研究---聯立方程式模型”，台大管理論叢，第9卷，第2期，1999年，頁101~135。
3.劉文祺、張淑怡、詹麗錦，「不同景氣循環階段最佳投資工具之選擇」，台灣土地金融月刊，第37卷，第3~4期，2000年12月，頁45-67。
4.傅瑜，「近期黃金價格波動的實證研究」，產業經濟研究，第1期，2004年，頁30-40。
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6.馮慶匯，「影響黃金價格的因素有哪些」，理財週刊，2006年4月。

二、英文文獻
1.Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, “Effects of Rising Price of Gold on The LDC’s Demand for International Reserves”, International Economic Journal, Vol.1, No.4, 1987, pp.35-44。
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4.賴松鐘, “Long-Term Comovement of Exchange Rates and Gold Prices”, 行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告, 1995。
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6.Moore, Geoffrey H.,“Gold Prices and a Leading Index of Inflation”, Challenge,Vol.33, Iss.4, 1990, pp.52-56。
7.Taylor, Nicholas J., “Precious metals and inflation”, Applied Financial Economics, Vol.8, No.2, 1998, pp.201-210。