| 研究生: |
賴暐婷 Lai, Wei-Ting |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
台灣近年登革熱爆發之時間與空間的統計分析 Statistical Analysis for Recent Taiwan Dengue Fever Outbreaks in Space and Time |
| 指導教授: |
陳瑞彬
Chen, Ray-Bing |
| 共同指導教授: |
吳致杰
Wu, Chih-Chieh |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 統計學系 Department of Statistics |
| 論文出版年: | 2016 |
| 畢業學年度: | 104 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 37 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 掃描檢定 、群聚統計 、登革熱 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Scan test, Clustering, Dengue |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:131 下載:14 |
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由於在2014 年台爆發第二次世界大戰以來最嚴重的爆發,而到2015 年爆發又更為嚴重,因此在本研究針對台灣2014 與2015 年,我們使用空間與時間之特性的統計分析精確分析與確認登革熱的群聚現象和其分布的型態與趨勢。使用這些方法,我們可以確認了15 個行政區在2015 年的台南與高雄中有2 個分別由台南市的7 個高風險區和高雄市的8 個高風險區不同的地理區域被顯著聚集在一起。而結果可看出2015 年台南的高峰期較高雄早且也較為嚴重,其從台南市中心在向外擴散的情況;在高雄2014 年的高峰期比2015 年早,且2014 年較集中於市中心的行政區,而2015年有向外擴散的形況。
The two largest dengue outbreaks in Taiwan occurred in 2014 and 2015 since World War II. In this report, we used statistical methods to analyze and characterize the dengue incidence patterns in space and time. Using these methods, we identified 15 districts with high risk in 2015 Tainan and Kaohsiung. Two distinct geographical areas comprised these districts that significantly clustered. There were 7 high-risk districts in 2015 Tainan and 8 high-risk districts in 2015 Kaohsiung. The results showed that the peak of incidence in 2015 Tainan was earlier than in 2015 Kaohsiung. And cases per 100,000 persons in 2015 Tainan was higher than in 2015 Kaohsiung. The peak of incidence in 2014 Kaohsiung was earlier than 2015 Kaohsiung.
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