追求穩定報酬之散戶投資人傾向選擇高現金殖利率之股票，以取得穩定現金流量暨高於定期存款收益的機會；本研究嘗試以非內部人之一般投資者觀點，以Pool Data作HAC Newey-West迴歸，建立股利殖利率預測模型，旨在指引投資人選擇預期殖利率較佳的個股，建立投資組合，以取得優於指標指數的報酬率。

實證結果發現，本模型優於隨機漫步模型之結果，且經優化後具有更佳的解釋能力，尤以採取產業別模型中，化學工業為最優；此外，本模型對高市值企業(新台幣100億元以上)略優於中低市值企業；改變預測年度時亦均優於隨機漫步模型，且資料期間未涵蓋金融海嘯期間者預測結果較優。五年資料之預測結果亦優於三年資料(2011年除外)。

To increase the odds is always what investors are looking for. As an individual investor who looks for continuous or stable cash inflow, the stock paying consistent or stable dividend would be a very good choice. There is usually no insider’s information available for the non-insider investors. All they can rely on is the pool data for listed companies from the information providers. In this research we would like to create an predictive model for the current yield for stable dividend paying companies so that an individual investor can have an idea how the dividend yield of the next period would be and he/she would easily identify stocks with better performance prospective and therefore increase his/her odds from the stock universe. We also proved that, by using improved models, such as a grouping based on the sectors or market capitals the models have more explanatory power within some of the industries such as chemical and biotech industries, as well as the large capital companies. We then redo the test by changing the forecasted years and the results are all with the consistency to beat the random walk model. Results derived by data sets excludes the financial crisis of 2007-2008 are better, as expected. Results derived from five years are better than that from three years.

中文部分
周家卉，台灣上市公司現金股利政策之決定因素探討、國立台灣大學財務金融學研究所未出版之碩士論文(2008)
張宏杰，股利政策是否符合投資人需求?-台灣股市之實證、朝陽科技大學財務金融系未出版之碩士論文(2011)
黃子萍，被動投資與主動投資應用在高殖利率權值股上的投資報酬表現、世新大學財務金融學系未出版碩士論文(2010)
黃佳瑜，公司現金股利的決定性因素、雲林科技大學財務金融系未出版之碩士論文(2010)
葉和豐，利用夏普指數與殖利率選股之投資組合分析、世新大學財務金融研究所未出版之碩士論文(2013)
葉彥麟，高股利率股票績效表現之實證研究、元智大學財務金融系未出版之碩士論文(2004)

英文部分
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