隨著各種理論不斷的提出，鋪面壽命的預估也從經驗法的思維慢慢發展到自我學習預估，雖然經驗法及類神經網路都有其準確性，但其所付出的成本相當高，而且只能知道最後分析的結果，並無法知道受力的過程，因此希望能在力學基礎上找出可以預估鋪面壽命的方法。
　　材料的破壞與受力的能量及頻率有一定的關聯性，而鋪面受力的頻率則與鋪面材料性質及道路不平度有關。因此本研究將以剛性鋪面材料性質及道路不平度出發，利用單自由度鋪面模型，配合1/4車的動態方程式，經過推導可以得道路面不平度的能量頻譜密度(PSD)及鋪面因不平度及自重而產生的底部張應力PSD的關係。由張應力PSD可以求出張應力的標準差，將標準差帶入破壞公式可以預估出路面的壽命。此法以數值解呈現並加入可靠度觀念探討路面不平度能量頻譜密度(PSD)及鋪面壽命的關係。此法可以大幅的減少預估鋪面壽命所需的時間及資源，並將鋪面不平度引入鋪面壽命預估中。根據此分析結果發現ISO路面等級在C以上路面不平對壽命影響不大，在C以下路面的壽命將快速的減少，因此讓剛性路面不平度等級至少維持在ISO路面等級C以上是很重要的。

After many kinds of theory had been advanced, the methods of estimating pavement lifetime also gradually developed into experience methods to auto-analysis methods. Although experience methods and Neural Networks can estimate the accuracy of pavement lifetime, these methods must take a lot of resources to execute; furthermore, this experience could only get the last result but the process of material failure. Therefore, the method of estimating pavement lifetime which is based on mechanics is expected to find out in this study.
This study is used in Numerical Methods and is mentioned to Reliability to investigate the relation between pavement irregularity’s Power Spectrum Density (PSD) and pavement failure. It uses the concept of energy to simplify the pavement model as Equivalent One-Degree System, and combine it with quarter-truck model to produce the dynamic motion equation. This method can be used to estimate the time of occurrence of pavement failure and its probability of failure during its lifetime. Moreover, this method can save a lot of time, reduce resources of estimating, and also lead irregularity into the estimation of pavement lifetime. The results of this study showed that the effect of pavement lifetime of ISO road class is lower than the effect to class C and which will immediately decrease the pavement lifetime. According to this result, it is important that the class of rigid pavements must at least remain upper than class C.

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