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研究生：	蔡旻諭 Tsai, Min-Yu
論文名稱：	天然災害下路網脆弱度之評估與改善 Assessment and Improvement of Network Vulnerability under Natural Disasters
指導教授：	胡大瀛 Hu, Ta-Yin
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	管理學院 - 交通管理科學系 Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science
論文出版年：	2017
畢業學年度：	105
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	88
中文關鍵詞：	脆弱度、災害、路網、模擬
外文關鍵詞：	Vulnerability, Disaster, Road network, Simulation
相關次數：	點閱：51 下載：0
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近年來，氣候變遷已成為世界各地的重要議題，連帶自然災害之頻繁所造成嚴重損失及生活環境更顯脆弱。然而，交通運輸基礎設施包括路網與生活息息相關，也不得不讓專家們對於此議題更加注意。
本研究提出對一個方法以評估的道路網絡的脆弱程度。目前為止，脆弱的定義仍然不明確，且不同的研究領域有自己的觀點，本研究試尋找其適當定義並著重於路網弱點及災害所導致其受損及損失程度，透過數學規劃之方式，利用脆弱度評估的相關指標，求出適當權重以完捒整較全面性的道路路網脆弱性評估。
本研究主要有兩個研究目的，其中之一為設計一實驗模擬流程，且利用交通模擬軟體DynaTAIWAN反覆模擬不同災害之情境假設，以得出路網路較對脆弱之區域；同時為了降底路網脆弱程度，透過災前平時準備工作減緩災害造成的衝擊，其模型中主要參考整體路網、交通分區之旅行時間，並建立最佳化數學模式，欲藉由有效率地資源分求來執行災前準備工作，並求得資源最佳配置情形以降低路網脆弱度。
最後，本研究將針對特定的路網進行模擬實驗，並獲得最佳的決策方案。此外，將針對高雄市三民區進行實之證研究分析，以應用及驗證此整合性模式，根據求得之結果所擬訂之相關建議可供緊急災害管理及都市運輸系統之期規劃之用。

Recently, climate change has become a critical issue around the world, and frequent nature disasters cause peoples’ living surroundings more vulnerable. It is known that transportation infrastructures including road network are close to our daily life, which make experts pay attention on this vital issue.
This research process a methodology to assess the level of vulnerability of road network. Until now, definition of vulnerability is still vague and different study areas have their own perspectives. This research focuses vulnerability on network weakness and consequences of failure indicating the degree of damage. Hence, an analytically mathematical programming by combing vulnerability attributes with reliability into a comprehensive network assessment is proposed.
There are two main purposes in this research. One is to evaluate the vulnerable area in a given network by simulation-based analysis under disasters by traffic simulator, DynaTAIWAN systematically. The other is to reduce vulnerability to improve network performance through appropriate preventions. Then, a formulation of the optimization model is developed helping generate a solution with optimal resource allocated.
Finally, this research will conduct numerical experiments and apply to an empirical study of Sanmin District in Kaohsiung city, while results can offer some advices for emergency management as well as long-term planning in urban road network system.

ABSTRACT	I
摘要	II
TABLE OF CONTENTS	IV
LIST OF TABLES	VII
LIST OF FIGURES	VIII
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION	1
1.1	Research Motivation and Background	1
1.2 Research Objectives	2
1.3 Research Flow Chart	3
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW	6
2.1 Definition of Vulnerability	6
2.2 Vulnerability Assessment on Road Network	11
2.3 Travel Time Reliability	15
2.4 Summary	18
CHAPTER3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY	19
3.1 Problem Statement	19
3.2 Research Framework	20
3.3 Index for Vulnerability Assessment	23
3.4 Solution Algorithm	25
3.5 Method of Simulation-Based Analysis	28
3.5.1 Relationship between Travel Time and Standard Deviation	29
3.5.2 Relationship between Travel Time Variation and Standard Deviation	29
3.6 Model Formulation for Vulnerability Enhancement	31
3.7 Summary	35
CHAPTER4 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT	36
4.1 Natural Disasters in Taiwan	36
4.2 Simulation Preparation	37
4.3 Network of Kaohsiung Sanmin District	42
4.4 Numerical Experiments	44
4.4.1 Typhoon	44
4.4.2 Earthquake	47
4.4.3 Heavy Precipitation	50
4.4.4 Cross-Analysis for Natural Disasters	53
4.5 Results of Vulnerability Assessment	55
4.5.1 Travel Time	56
4.5.2 Vulnerability Assessment under Different kinds of Disasters	57
4.5.2 Vulnerable Assessment for Overall Network	60
4.6 Summary	61
CHAPTER5 PREVENTION OPTIMIZATION	63
5.1 Setups for Empirical Study	63
5.1.1 Define Vulnerable Links	63
5.1.2 Preventions Action Setting	66
5.1.3 Parameter Setting of Pre- and Post-Disaster Performance	67
5.2 Empirical Study	67
5.2.1 Vulnerable Links in Kaohsiung Sanmin District	68
5.2.2 Process in Mathematical Program	69
5.2.3 The results of Empirical Study	70
5.3 Sensitivity Analysis	72
5.4 Summary	74
CHPATER 6 CONCLUSIONS and SUGGESTIONS	77
6.1 Conclusions	77
6.2 Suggestions	81
REFERENCES	83
 
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 2-1 DEFINITION OF VULNERABILITY	9
TABLE 2-2 SUMMARY OF QUANTITATIVE METHODS REVIEWED	12
TABLE 4-1 SUMMARY OF NATURAL DISASTERS	36
TABLE 4-2 SCENARIO DATA FOR SIMULATION-BASED ANALYSIS FROM SUPPLY SIDE	39
TABLE 4-3 SCENARIO DATA FOR SIMULATION-BASED ANALYSIS FROM DEMAND SIDE	40
TABLE 4-4 TRAVEL TIMETABLE WITH SCENARIO TYPHOON UNDER NORMAL TRAFFIC CONDITION	57
TABLE 4-5 LIST OF VULNERABILITY O-D PAIRS	60
TABLE 5-1 SUMMARY OF PREVENTATIVE ACTION	66
TABLE 5-2 PREVENTIONS IN EMPIRICAL EXPERIMENT	66
TABLE 5-3 TRAVEL TIME BEFORE DISASTER	67
TABLE 5-4 TRAVEL TIME AFTER DISASTER WITHOUT PREVENTIONS	67
TABLE 5-5 THE TOP 20 VULNERABLE LINKS	68
TABLE 5-6 RESULTS OF EMPIRICAL STUDY	71

 
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1-1 Research Flow Chart	5
Figure 2-1 Relationship between Vulnerability and Related Factors	8
Figure 3-2 Assessment of Overall Network Vulnerability	25
Figure 3-2 Solution Procedure of Vulnerability Optimization Model	28
Figure 3-3 The Quadrant Diagram for Standard deviation of  Travel Time and Percentage Variation of Travel Time	31
Figure 4-1 Process of Simulation-Based Analysis	38
Figure 4-2 Graph of DynaTAIWAN Simulation Interface	41
Figure 4-3 Graph of DynaTAIWAN Summary File	42
Figure 4-4 Graph of DynaTAIWAN Trajectory File	42
Figure4-5 Kaohsiung Network	43
Figure 4-6 Typhoon-Average Travel Time (Demand=0.1)	45
Figure4-7 Typhoon-Average Travel Time (Demand=1.0)	45
Figure4-8 Typhoon-Average Travel Time (Demand=1.4)	46
Figure4-9 Typhoon-Average Travel Time (Demand=1.8)	46
Figure 4-10 Typhoon-Travel Time Analysis	47
Figure4-11 Earthquake-Average Travel Time (Demand=0.1)	48
Figure4-12 Earthquake-Average Travel Time (Demand=1.0)	48
Figure4-13 Earthquake-Average Travel Time (Demand=1.4)	49
Figure4-14 Earthquake-Average Travel Time (Demand=1.8)	49
Figure 4-15 Earthquake-Travel Time Analysis	50
Figure4-16 Heavy Precipitation-Average Travel Time (Demand=0.1)	51
Figure4-17 Heavy Precipitation-Average Travel Time (Demand=1.0)	51
Figure4-18 Heavy Precipitation-Average Travel Time (Demand=1.4)	52
Figure4-19 Heavy Precipitation -Average Travel Time (Demand=1.8)	52
Figure 4-20 Heavy Precipitation -Travel Time Analysis	53
Figure 4-21 Natural Disasters- Travel Time Analysis	54
Figure 4-23 Vulnerability Assessment under Typhoon	59
Figure 4-24 Vulnerability Assessment under Extreme Rain	60
Figure 5-1 Flow Chart of Vulnerable Links Selection	64
Figure5-2 Diagram of Model Construction in LINGO 11.0	69
Figure 5-3 Diagram of the Solver Status in LINGO 11.0	70
Figure5-4 Diagram of Model Solution in LINGO 11.0	70
Figure5-5 Diagram of Sensivity Analysis on Budget	72
Figure5-6 Diagram of Sensivity Analysis on Capacity Reduction	73


                                    

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