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研究生: 陳彥芬
Chen, Yen-Fen
論文名稱: 產品生命週期數量與價格決策之探討-以Cournot 模式與Bertrand 模式分析
Price and quantity decision of product life cycle-Cournot Model and Bertrand Model
指導教授: 耿伯文
Kreng, Victor B.
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年: 2007
畢業學年度: 95
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 80
中文關鍵詞: 技術生命週期Cournot 模式產品生命週期Bertrand 模式
外文關鍵詞: Product/Technology Life Cycle, Bertrand Model, Cournot Model
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  • 高科技產業為台灣的經濟命脈,為了維持台灣高科技產業在全球居於領先的地位,企業必須持續並謹慎地評估投資在研發創新上的成本花費。研發成本的花費不但龐大且為長期的投資,因此對於廠商決策的影響佔有舉足輕重的地位。過去文獻針對寡占市場上廠商的決策已有諸多鑽研,而其中又以最具代表性的Cournot與Bertrand兩模式的比較居多,而此兩模式已由傳統的兩家廠商,延伸至N家廠商間的競爭,但過去文獻皆假設在同一時間點下,加入投資研發成本的參數,進行廠商決策後其利潤、消費者剩餘、社會福利等之比較。
    由於高科技產業競爭激烈,不斷地有新技術、新知識的產生,使得高科技產品的生命週期越來越短,故產品生命週期已逐漸成為高科技產業中廠商求生存最主要的考慮因素之ㄧ,廠商必須在如此短暫的產品生命週期的環境下擬定最佳的競爭策略。因此本研究欲加入時間變數,運用已考慮研發成本後的Cournot與Bertrand分別代表數量與價格競爭的模式,找出在每個不同階段的產品生命週期裡,高科技產業中的廠商應採取何種決策方式較為合適,何種競爭模式方能使其利潤極大化。
    最終,本研究結果顯示:在產品與技術生命週期中的成長期及成熟期階段下,採數量競爭即Cournot競爭較佳;而在導入期及衰退期階段下,採取數量競爭或價格競爭則無顯著差異。

    High-tech industry is deemed to be the main economic lifeline of Taiwan, and all the high-tech oriented firms have to cautiously evaluate the cost of R&D investment in order to settle the advantageous position in the global market. There exist a great number of relevant literatures discussing the firms’ strategic decisions of oligopoly, especially the Cournot model and the Bertrand model, which have been extended the dimension of study domain from traditional two firms of duopoly to three firms or more. But they all discuss that firms compete for their market share and service profit at the particular time point not within a continuous time period.
    In reality, the shorter product/technology life cycle becomes more important for firms to be capable of controlling the market competition, the accuracy of prediction product/technology life cycle which is one of the important factors making firms can survive in the market.
    In view of the R&D production process, this study attempts to combine product/technology life cycle into Cournot and into Bertrand models respectively, and compares these two models on the basis of the characteristics of product/technology life cycle. Finally, the conclusion of this study is that the industrial net profit under Cournot competition is better than under Bertrand competition at the growth and maturity stages, but they are not remarkably divergent at the introduction and decline stages of the technology/product life cycle.

    Abstract V Acknowledgement VI Contents VII List of Tables IX List of Figures X Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Research Background 1 1.2 Research Motivations and Objectives 3 1.3 Research Procedure 4 Chapter 2 Literature Review 6 2.1 Life Cycle Theory 7 2.1.1 Classic Product Life Cycle (PLC) 7 2.1.2 Technology Life Cycle (TLC) 10 2.1.3 Relationship between PLC&TLC 12 2.2 The Cournot Model 14 2.2.1 Definition and Usage of the Cournot Model 14 2.2.2 Cournot with R&D (n=2) 15 2.2.3 Cournot with R&D (n ≥ 2) 19 2.3 The Bertrand Model 22 2.3.1 Definition and Usage of the Bertrand Model 23 2.3.2 Duopoly with R&D (n=2) 24 2.3.3 Oligopoly with R&D (n ≥ 2) 25 2.4 Comparison of the Cournot Model and the Bertrand Model 29 Chapter 3 Establishment and Discussion of the Model 33 3.1 Problem Description 33 3.2 Research Framework 34 3.3 Research Hypotheses 36 3.4 Model Establishment 37 3.4.1 The Cournot Model of PLC/TLC 37 3.4.2 The Bertrand Model of PLC/TLC 41 Chapter 4 Verification and Analysis 47 4.1 Case Study 1: Large-Sized TFT LCD Flat Panel Display 47 4.1.1 The Progress of Large-Sized TFT LCD 47 4.1.2 Analysis and Discussion 48 4.2 Case Study 2: Instant Noodles 56 4.2.1 The progress of instant noodles 56 4.2.2 Analysis and Discussion 57 4.3 Discussion of Case 1 vs. Case 2 63 4.4 Parameter Analysis 64 4.4.1 The effect of the number of consumers S on the net profit 64 4.4.2 The effect of the number of competitors on the net profit 65 4.4.3 The effect of the degree of substitution on the net profit 67 Chapter 5 Conclusion and Suggestion 72 5.1 Conclusion 72 5.2 Suggestion 73 Reference 75

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