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研究生： 瑞莉亞
Raulia Riski
論文名稱： 應用公交導向型發展的方法降低泗水城市交通系統碳排放之系統動力學模型
A System Dynamics Simulation Model to Reduce Carbon Emissions from Surabaya Urban Transportation System using Transit-Oriented Development Approach
指導教授： 呂執中
Lyu, Jr-Jung
共同指導: Erma Suryani
Erma Suryani
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年： 2021
畢業學年度： 109
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 123
中文關鍵詞： 碳排放 、城市交通 、公交導向型發展 、系統動態學模型
外文關鍵詞： Carbon Emission, Urban Transportation, Transit-Oriented Development, System Dynamics Model
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    • 道路交通運輸所產生的總碳排放量約佔整體城市的90%，而海洋和航空運輸所產生的總碳排放量僅分別佔整體城市的1%和8%左右，而隨著許多國家(如印尼)機車的高成長率，情況只會變得更糟。政府需要想辦法減少民眾使用私人車輛，才能夠持續減少城市交通系統的碳排放量。本研究的目的是基於公交導向型發展(TOD)的方法規畫幾種可能的情境，以減少泗水城市交通系統碳排放量，並使用系統動態學來模擬這些可能情境的結果，並依此提出政策建議。
    本研究採用系統動態學模型開發的五個階段 - 從問題闡述、動態假設、建立模型、驗證及政策制定來達成研究目的。本次研究中除了Business-as-Usual情境外，還採用TOD方法建構了兩個情境，分別是個別混合區域的BRT開發（WKT區域、WS區域、GS區域、PTS區域）及結合四個混合區域的BRT開發，而做為研究案例的這四個混合區域都位於泗水。研究使用的系統動態學工具是Vensim (Ventana Simulation)。研究數據是透過觀察、訪談、先前研究的文獻探討及從泗水交通管理機構或政府網站等所獲得。
    本研究評估四個混和區域的BRT發展對減少私人車輛和泗水道路交通總碳排放量的影響，並提供優先推動順序。本研究成果可為政府及各相關管理人員提供降低泗水道路交通碳排放量問題的政策參考。

    Road transport contributes around 90% of the total carbon emissions in Indonesia, where only about 1% and 8% of the total of carbon emission were produced by marine and air transport, respectively. In Surabaya city, which is the second big city in Indonesia, the transportation system contributes up to 40% of the carbon emissions, where 90% of it is from the road-transportation. Several factors that influence the increase in the amount of carbon emissions from the urban road transportation system in Indonesia include the increasing number of motorized vehicles and the unavailability of transit modes that can restrain the growth of private vehicles. This study aims to design strategies, based on TOD system approach, to find the priority to reduce carbon emissions from the urban road transportation system. Different scenarios have applied SD simulation to generate results and accompanied policy suggestions are proposed.
    This work uses five stages of SD model development, from problem articulation, dynamic hypothesis, model formulation, validation, and then the last one is policy formulation, to achieve research objectives. There are six proposed scenarios: the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario (scenario 1); the BRT development scenario in WKT area (scenario 2); the BRT development scenario in WS area (scenario 3); the BRT development scenario in GS area (scenario 4); the BRT development scenario in PTS area (scenario 5); and the BRT development scenario in all WKT, WS, GS, and PTS areas (scenario 6). Model data were collected through observation, interviews, and literature from previous research, as well as field data obtained from transportation management agencies in Surabaya (and government website).
    The results show that TOD implementation can significantly reduce the amount of carbon emissions from urban road transportation. Based on the BAU scenario simulation result, in 2050, Surabaya road-transportation could produce up to 29 million tons of carbon emissions, but with the implementation of scenario 6, the amount of carbon emissions could reduce up to 7 million tons - an average of 3.2%/year. Our findings could provide the policy suggestion for Surabaya and those cities determine to reduce carbon emission.

    摘要 iii Abstract iv Acknowledgements vi Contents xiv List of Figures xvii List of Tables xxi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. Background and Motivation 1 1.2. Problem Formulations 6 1.3. Research Objective 7 1.4. Research Scope 8 1.5. Research Contribution 8 1.6. Proposal Outline 8 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 9 2.1. Carbon Emissions 9 2.1.1. Carbon emissions of urban transportation in Surabaya 9 2.1.2. Negative impact of carbon emissions 10 2.1.3. Policies and strategies of carbon emissions handling in Indonesia 10 2.2. Transit-Oriented Development 11 2.2.1. TOD and carbon emission 13 2.2.2. TOD and BRT 13 2.2.3. TOD and pedestrian and bicycle networks 14 2.3. System and Model 15 2.4. Simulation 16 2.5. System Dynamics 17 2.6. Related Studies 21 CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 25 3.1. Problem Formulation 26 3.2. Literature Review 26 3.3. Data Collection 26 3.4. Research Model Development 27 3.4.1. Problem Articulation 28 3.4.2. Dynamics Hypothesis 31 3.4.3. Data Management/ Model Formulation 36 3.4.4. Validation and Model Testing 37 3.4.5. Policy Formulation 39 3.5. Simulation Result Discussion and Analysis 40 CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 41 4.1. Identification of Current Urban Transportation System in Surabaya 41 4.2. Research Data Collection 45 4.2.1 Data on the Number of Motorized Vehicles in Surabaya 45 4.2.2 Data of Mixed-Use Areas in Surabaya 46 4.2.3 Data of Surabaya Urban Population 47 4.3. Research Data Processing (Model Formulation) 48 4.3.1. Surabaya Urban Population Sub Model 49 4.3.2. Private Vehicles Number Sub Model 50 4.3.3. BRT Sub Model 54 4.3.4. People using Bicycle and Pedestrian Sub Model 56 4.3.5. Surabaya Road-Transportation Total Emissions Sub Model 59 4.4. Validation and Model Testing 63 4.4.1. Structural Validation 64 4.4.2. Behavior Validity Test 69 4.5. Policy Formulation 78 4.5.1. BAU Scenario (Scenario 1) 79 4.5.2. Scenario of BRT Development in WKT area (Scenario 2) 82 4.5.3. Scenario of BRT Development in WS Area Scenario 3 84 4.5.4. Scenario of BRT Development in GS Area (Scenario 4) 87 4.5.5. Scenario of BRT Development in PTS Area (Scenario 5) 90 4.5.6. Scenario of BRT Development in Four Mixed-Use Areas (Scenario 6) 92 4.6. Analysis of Scenario Model Result 96 4.7. Scenarios Resume 99 4.8. Research Result Discussions 103 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS 107 5.1. Conclusion 107 5.2. Suggestions for Further Research 110 Reference 111 APPENDIX A: Tables of Validation Results 114 APPENDIX B: Table of Growths Comparisons 117

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