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研究生： 莫德里
Munthali, Raphael
論文名稱： 以最小化生命週期成本為基礎之重力灌溉系統
Life-Cycle Cost Minimization Model of the Gravity Irrigation System
指導教授： 馮重偉
Feng, Chung-We
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 工學院 - 土木工程學系
Department of Civil Engineering
論文出版年： 2009
畢業學年度： 97
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 94
外文關鍵詞： Preventative maintenance, Minimization, Gravity irrigation, Life-cycle cost, Markov chains, Evolver, Genetic Algorithms
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    • Achievement of sustainability in irrigation and drainage systems pose varying challenges to systems’ management authorities due to mismatching choices for maintenance strategies with expected levels of system service delivery. This gap is mostly attributed to input based decision making on choice of maintenance strategies.
    This research developed a life-cycle cost (LCC) minimization model of the gravity irrigation system to enable evaluation of alternative preventative maintenance (PM) strategies between two consecutive rehabilitations. The modeling framework, within the context of asset management, was developed. Concepts of Markov chains transitional probabilities, Genetic Algorithms and optimization were used to formulate and validate the model. Procedures in the developed modeling framework were applied to a case of Dingleydale gravity irrigation system in South Africa to evaluate assets’ costs, LCCs for the alternative PM strategies and minimization (using Evolver) of LCCs for PM plans to select the cost minimal strategy. Three alternative PM strategies were identified as candidates for the minimization and selection processes.
    The research found that the developed framework; Markov chains; and minimization can be feasible tools for selecting the cost minimal PM strategies for gravity irrigation systems. Consistent results were obtained for cases of minimization with and without budget limits. The sensitivity analysis showed that length of intervals for PM actions, maintenance intensities and transitional probabilities influenced choice of the optimal PM strategy. Changes in the discount rate did not impact choice of the optimal PM strategy; there was consistency in the choice made.

    Abstract I Acknowledgements II Table of Contents III LIST OF Tables VII List of Figures VIII ACRONYMS, ABREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS X CHAPTER ONE - INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Background and Overview of Irrigation Systems. 1 1.2 Motivation of the Research 1 1.3 Objectives of the Research 4 1.4 Scope and Process 6 1.5 Thesis Structure 9 CHAPTER TWO – PROBLEM STATEMENT AND Review OF RELATED RESEARCH Works 10 2.1 Overview of Gravity Irrigation System and Current Practices 10 2.1.1 Present Status of Preventative Maintenance in Gravity Irrigation Systems 11 2.1.2 Benefits from Preventative Maintenance in Gravity Irrigation Systems 12 2.1.3 Problems Facing Preventative Maintenance in Gravity Irrigation Systems 13 2.1.4 Life Cycle Cost Modeling Initiatives in Gravity Irrigation Systems and Limitations 15 2.2 Review of Related Research 16 2.2.1 Minimizing the Life Cycle Cost of the Gravity Irrigation System 16 2.2.2 Use of Markov Chains in Modeling Costs for Gravity Irrigation System’s Maintenance Actions 18 2.2.3 Maintenance Actions Within two Consecutive Rehabilitations 20 2.2.4 Optimal Combination of Maintenance Actions 21 2.2.5 Risk Costs Associated with Failure Modes for Specific Maintenance Actions over a Planning Horizon. 22 2.3 Summary of Problem Statement and Review of Related Research Works. 24 CHAPTER THREE - RESEARCH METHODOLOGIES 26 3.1 Approach to Model Development 26 3.1.1 Irrigation System Asset Classification and Quantification 28 3.1.2 Data Sources and Sourcing 29 3.2 Determination of Deterioration Patterns, Identification of Preventative Maintenance Actions, and Improvement Factors 29 3.3 Incorporation of Markov Chains and Steady State Markov Decision Processes (MDP) 31 3.3.1 Overview of Stochastic Processes (Markov Chains) 31 3.3.2 Application of Markov Chains in Modeling Life Cycle Costs in Gravity Irrigation Systems 34 3.4 Costing of Preventative Maintenance Actions and Economic Analyses 36 3.4.1 Cost Compounding and Inflation Rates 37 3.4.2 Cost Discounting and Discounting Rates 38 3.4.3 Cost Aggregation for Preventative Maintenance Actions 39 3.5 Cost Minimization and Choice of Preventative Maintenance Strategy 39 3.5.1 Overview of Genetic Algorithms and Evolver 40 CHAPTER FOUR - Model Development 46 4.1 Life Cycle Cost Minimization Model Specification and Boundaries 46 4.1.1 Model Specification and Boundaries 46 4.1.2 Assumptions Underpinning the Model 47 4.1.3 Variables for the Model 47 4.1.4 Parameters for the Model 48 4.1.5 Generic Format of the Model and Constraints 49 4.2 Purpose of the Developed Model 53 4.2.1 Identify an Optimal Preventative Maintenance Action 53 4.2.2 Sustain and Increase System Service Levels 53 4.2.3 Elongate Rehabilitation Interval and Asset Life 53 4.2.4 Minimize System Rehabilitation Costs 54 4.2.5 Enhance the Process of Irrigation System Management 54 Transfer (IMT) 54 CHAPTER Five - RESULTS OF TEST CASES and Model Verification 55 5.1 Case Study Area 55 5.1.1 Overview of the study Area and the Irrigation System 55 5.1.2 System Assets Classification and Quantification 56 5.2 Assets Decay Patterns, Choice of Service and Action Levels 57 5.3 Identification of Preventative Maintenance Actions 59 5.4 Assets Decay Patterns and Markov Chains Transitional Probabilities 62 5.5 Costing of Preventative Maintenance Actions and Financial Analyses 67 5.6 Case Study Model(s) 70 5.7 Optimization Using Evolver and Respective Outputs 73 5.8 Sensitivity Analysis 77 CHAPTER six - CONCLUSIONs AND future StUdiES 81 6.1 Findings of the Research 81 6.2 Research Accomplishments 81 6.3 Future Studies 82 References 83 APPENDICES 88 Appendix A-1: Asset Based PM Cost Cash Flow Projection and Discounting 88 Appendix A-2: Evolver Output Summary at Discount Rate (i) of 6.5% 90 VITAE 94

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