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研究生: 陳奕蓁
Chen, Yi-Chen
論文名稱: 最小化森林火災風險之最佳燒除策略研究
Strategic Defense Against Forest Fires: A Bilevel Programming Model for Prescribed Burning Optimization
指導教授: 王逸琳
Wang, I-Lin
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年: 2025
畢業學年度: 113
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 65
中文關鍵詞: 策略燒除雙層規劃森林火災管理混整數規劃啟發式演算法
外文關鍵詞: Prescribed burning, Bilevel programming, Forest fire management, Mixed-integer programming, Heuristic algorithm
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  • 摘要 i 誌謝 vi 表目錄 ix 圖目錄 x 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.2 研究動機與目的 2 1.3 研究問題與範圍 3 1.4 論文架構 4 第二章 文獻回顧 5 2.1 啟發式演算法在燃料管理的應用 5 2.2 數學規劃模型於燃料管理之發展 6 2.2.1 單期燃料管理模型 6 2.2.2 多期燃料管理模型 6 2.2.3 隨機與風險導向模型 7 2.2.4 空間聚合與區域性處理 8 2.3 對抗式與雙層決策模型 8 2.4 既有研究之比較與分析 11 2.5 小結 12 第三章 對抗式雙層規劃模型之建構 13 3.1 模型問題描述與結構 13 3.2 模型假設與前提條件 14 3.3 基本雙層規劃模型 15 3.4 考慮區域連通性的擴充模型 18 3.5單層混整數規劃轉換 20 3.6 火勢可達性模型之縮減策略 21 3.7 範例問題與模型示範 22 3.7.1基本模型問題示例 22 3.7.2連通性限制模型問題示例 23 3.8 小結 23 第四章 最佳預先燒除策略演算法設計 25 4.1 候選節點預處理模型 25 4.1.1 候選節點之選取方法 25 4.1.2 節點預處理之數學規劃模型 26 4.2 基因演算法設計 26 4.2.1 染色體編碼與展示 27 4.2.2基因演算法流程設計 28 4.3 混合式基因演算法(GS) 30 第五章 數值實驗與結果分析 32 5.1 最壞情境下損失最小化之比較 32 5.2 敏感度分析 33 5.2.1 預算覆蓋率(BCR)與損失評估指標的關係 33 5.2.2 連通性限制對最大潛在損失之影響 35 5.3 火勢可達性縮減策略之效果分析 36 5.4 演算法參數設定 38 5.4.1 預處理模型之參數 38 5.4.2 基因演算法參數 40 5.5 數學規劃模型與啟發式演算法之比較 41 5.5.1 基本模型結果分析 41 5.5.2 連通性限制模型結果比較 44 5.6 小結 44 第六章 結論與未來研究方向 46 6.1結論 46 6.2未來研究方向 50 參考文獻 51

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