| 研究生: |
蔡宜蓉 Cai, Yi-rong |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
利用Ohlson模型考慮成長機會與Altman模型形成投資策略 Using Ohlson model to form investing strategy concerning growth and Altman model |
| 指導教授: |
簡金成
Chien, Chinchen |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 會計學系 Department of Accountancy |
| 論文出版年: | 2007 |
| 畢業學年度: | 95 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 45 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 成長機會 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Growth, Altman, Z-score, Ohlson |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:86 下載:4 |
| 分享至: |
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本研究以2000至2006年台灣上市公司為樣本,觀察盈餘公司的財務報表對其價值影響性,此部分結論為,其他條件不變下,盈餘與帳面價值皆具有價值攸關性。再者,除了探討損益表與資產負債表之資訊內涵外,再討論成長因素。具有成長機會的公司,股價可能無法充分反映會計資訊內涵。所以本研究嘗試以公司成長機會對股價影響進行探討。因此加入成長因素修正Ohlson模型,認為高成長公司價值來自於成長機會之價值比重愈大,並且擁有較多無形資產,因此價值有被低估的情形。實證結果發現,其他條件不變下,盈餘、帳面價值與成長性皆具有價值攸關性。
之後利用Collins(1997)解釋Ohlson模型之變數增額解釋能力下,結果也發現考慮成長機會情況下,有較大的成長機會增額解釋能力。但在考慮Z-score之每股帳面值及每股盈餘與成長機會對股價的增額解釋能力與聯合解釋能力。發現每股帳面值與每股盈餘對股價的增額解釋能力除了在2000年級2002外,均大於成長機會對股價的增額解釋能力,表示經過Z-score篩選的公司,留下體質較健全的,對於投資者而言,會計資訊比成長機會更具攸關性,投資大眾所追求的可能是穩定性,而不是未來之成長爆發力。
最後利用Ohlson模型找出投資標的。而加入成長因素之Ohlson模型所找出高估及低估的股票所得到的報酬在持一年期間顯著高於市場。為了進一步檢視投資策略,加入Z-score的限制,考慮成長機會之Ohlson模型形成之投資策略,在持有期間不論三個月、六個月或一年均達99%信賴水準優於市場。
This research took 2000 to 2006 listed companies as the sample in Taiwan. We observed the effects of financial statements on company's values, and conclusions of this part were the book value and earnings were related to company value when other conditions were fixed. Moreover, we would discuss the growth factor in addition to the information of the income statement and balance sheet. The company’s stock price with growing opportunities may be unable to fully reflect accounting information. That's why we took the influences of growth into accounts . We modified the Ohlson model concerning growth and thought that the more potential the company was, the higher the value was. Because of more intangible assets, company’s value was possibly underestimated. The empirical analysis showed, the book value, earnings and growth all had value relevance.
Then we used Collins (1997) models to explain parameter incremental powers of the Ohlson model, found there were great incremental explanatory power after considering growth. But after considering Z-score we found the explanatory power common to earnings, book values was greater than the explanatory power of growth values excepting in 2000 and 2002. The stronger companies were left because accounting information was more relevant than the growth for investors after concerning the growth factor. What's the public cared most was the satbility of the company, not the uncertainty in the future. This conclusion was opposed to which were not concerning the growth factor.
We finally find out the investing targest using Ohlson models. There were larger profits than the market and significant results after concerning the growth factor during holding one year. Finally with the restriction of Z-score, there are significant results whatever holding there, six months or one year.
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