經環保署統計，建築營造業已成為臺灣產出最多事業廢棄物的產業。為了積極管理事業廢棄物，並將物質再利用、再循環等循環經濟實踐於建築業中，當前都市採礦的議題十足重要。在都市採礦的概念中，將存在於現有建築的建材與構件視為具再利用價值的二次資源，稱之為建材都市礦，而於建築生命週期結束時，可進拆解，相當於開採出來二次資源，未來再投入於新的產品或建築中。都市採礦蘊藏量的探勘關注某地區與城市的潛在都市礦量與空間分布，進而發掘最合適的開採區域，其中最常見且被廣泛應用的都市礦分析方法為由下而上方法。由下而上方法為透過建築材料強度係數與總樓地板面積，估算各建築蘊含的都市礦量，並且可與空間資料合併來討論該區域的都市礦空間分布狀況。然而，此方法在過去的研究多仰賴經驗或相關法規，將建築壽命視為固定值。然而，建築之間的壽命有很大的差異，這是影響都市礦產出量估算正確性的主要因素之一，因為一棟建築的壽命將決定其建築材料的最終開採時間。
經過文獻回顧，都市礦分析方法可分類為四大類型：由上而下方法、由下而上方法、遙測方法與其他方法。由上而下方法為根據國家或地區統計的比例來估算系統的材料流入量與流出量，此方法與由下而上方法均屬於高資料需求的方法，而前者更關注於都市礦存量計算，對於建築壽命分析討論相對詳盡，並捨棄討論都市礦的空間分布。遙測方法則可適用於缺乏關鍵數據，改以相對好取得的夜間光線數據與衛星圖像，分析都市礦空間分布與產量。其他方法則包括不使用前三種方法，或為綜合地使用上述分析方法，進而突破單一分析方法的侷限性，獲得更豐富的研究成果。由下而上方法與由上而下方法對資料需求高，前者雖然應用性高但無法將壽命分析納入討論，後者則捨棄空間資訊並專注在存量計算，選用單一種方法難以全面地分析都市礦產量。在臺灣，近年來大多數政府資料都有以電子化的形式保存，資料集種類多元也有被長期定期管理。因此若研究想要討論臺灣的建築都市礦存量，研究人員只要能申請到適合的、可讀性高的資料集，儘管會花費很多的時間與精力，在由下而上方法中加入壽命分析將會是可能的。因此，本研究將在由下而上方法中融入建築壽命變異性，透過分析臺灣建築使用執照與廢棄物清理計劃書，獲得建築壽命分布結果、取得臺灣的建築材料強度，進而模擬臺北市與高雄市於2023年的都市礦產出量。
本研究對五都建築使用執照資料與廢棄物清理計劃書資料進行資料前處理，並使用ArcGIS pro 軟體的空間結合功能進行資料合併。接著採用貝葉斯信息量準則(Bayesian Information Criterion)，分別將總資料的建築壽命資料與建築材料強度資料進行分布擬合，並透過獲得的分布種類與參數，進行模擬卡羅模擬來預測現有建築的都市礦產出量，模擬2023年臺北市與高雄市的平均都市礦產出量。結果顯示本研究確實可透過臺灣的建築與拆除資料，在由下而上方法架構中同時考量建築壽命分析，並且同時貢獻更多臺灣建築材料強度數據。經過蒙地卡羅模擬，發現2023年臺北市平均都市礦產出量為2,464,936公噸，高雄市平均產出量為14,871,984公噸。同時本研究對數據進行不確定性分析，發現不確定性最高的建材類行為生物質、最低為金屬礦物。其中，材料不確定性高的原因與原始資料的地址欄位填寫不全有關。

When the circular economy has attracted much attention in recent years, urban mine has become one popular research topic. However, the most used inventory approaches are demanding for data. Therefore, many studies are hard to juggle the discussion over spatial analysis of urban mines and accurate inventory calculation. In our case, we collected the government datasets that had been well-archived and preserved electronically. So, we can combine two common inventory approaches. This study used Building Use Permit data and Waste Disposal Plans data. After data processing and spatial data integration, 2,630 demolition cases were finally obtained, mostly located in Taipei City and Kaohsiung City. By analyzing these demolition cases, we conducted a building lifetime analysis and calculated the building material intensities. According to the above results, the material intensities and lifetimes of real buildings are predicted by Monte Carlo simulations, and then future urban mineral outflows can be estimated. According to the results, we obtained more kinds of material intensities data than in previous studies in Taiwan. In addition, we examined the lifetime distribution for different types of buildings in the municipality of Taiwan. Based on this detailed data preparation and modeling, the spatiotemporal analysis of building materials in cities and the time for exploitation are presented.

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