洪災在全世界之自然災害事件之中占了40%左右，而在全世界之自然災害死亡數當中亦有一半為洪災造成。此外，未來在氣候變遷下亦可能造成短時間內更強的降雨量，進而使得洪水規模大幅增加，導致更嚴重的生命財產損失，故都市洪水之研究在最近幾年來成為相當重要的議題。過去關於都市洪水對土地利用的影響研究當中，對於洪水在時間軸變化考量多屬於靜態之方式，故較無法確實掌握因氣候變遷而形成之極端洪水導致土地利用在時間與空間上之動態變化情形。此外，過去相關模擬研究中對於洪水的考量僅透過淹水範圍的設定做為限制發展地區，忽略了不同淹水深度可能對土地利用的變遷存在著不同程度的影響。
因此，本研究嘗試以馬可夫鍊為基礎之細胞自動機空間動態模擬架構，藉以深入了解在氣候變遷可能造成之極端淹水潛勢情況下未來都市土地利用之型態變化為何。本研究首先透過GIS疊圖、相關分析、以及空間多準則評估（MCE）等方法深入探討淹水潛勢以及其他變遷因子對於住宅、商業及工業土地利用變遷的相對影響程度；其次根據分析結果做為細胞自動機模擬中三種土地利用發展潛力的權重計算。在台北市之實證研究中，本研究建立之細胞自動機動態模擬架構在前期模擬部分具有可信的解釋效力（Kno=0.7944，Klocation=0.7637，整體精確度達81.31%）。本研究進而設定五種極端洪水情境以模擬未來12年之土地利用變遷情形。模擬結果顯示在增高之淹水潛勢下都市發展將會呈現更為蔓延之情形，且原高淹水深度地區將逐漸轉作低人口密度之使用。這樣的都市發展型態則需透過漸進式規劃來因應淹水潛勢改變所造成土地利用之時空演變，以確保未來公共設施與交通運輸能夠有效率配合新聚落的發展而達到理想情形。

Floods account for 40% of all natural disaster events happened in the world and 50% of their total death numbers. Most of the studies on urban flood over the past few decades have generally focused on the influence of land-use change on urban flood. However, there is still limited literature on how urban flood affects the land use pattern. Although several studies took floods into account in modeling the land-use changing, they failed to consider the fact that different depths of inundation might have significantly different impacts on land use pattern. Besides, past studies roughly regarded flood extent as static in temporal aspects so that the temporal dynamics driven by climate change were lack of consideration.
Therefore, this paper developed a spatial dynamic modeling approach for evaluating the impact of urban flood on land use pattern based on methods of markovian cellular automata(CA) and spatial multi-criterion evaluation (MCE). Extreme flood events which are likely caused by climate change were also included by scenario-settings in modeling processes. The study area was in Taipei City, where is the capital of Taiwan and it had experienced increasing flood events that caused severe damage in the past decade. The calibration and validation of CA showed acceptable level of Kappa statistics (0.7944) and 81.31% of total accuracy which proved the ability of the model. Land use simulation scenarios under extreme flood of year 2019 were thus conducted and the results indicated that the future pattern under extreme flood will become more sprawling and scattering. Meanwhile, a large part of housing and commercial cells used to be located in highly flood-prone area will gradually disappear and new urban cells tend to locate in places where are outside the city centers.

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