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研究生: 林展毅
Lin, Chan-I
論文名稱: 都會區導入電動車共享系統之最適車隊規模的探討
A Study of Optimum Fleet Size of e-Car Sharing System in the Urban Area
指導教授: 呂執中
Lyu, Jr-Jung
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年: 2017
畢業學年度: 105
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 82
中文關鍵詞: 電動車共享系統成本效益分析模擬最適化車隊規模
外文關鍵詞: Electric Vehicle, Carsharing System, Cost Benefit Analysis, Simulation Optimization, Fleet Size
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  • 隨著工業社會的蓬勃發展,化石燃料被廣泛地開採與運用,過度的使用以及燃燒煤炭與石油而產生的二氧化碳和其他溫室氣體,大量堆積在大氣層中,而形成溫室效應。大氣中的溫室氣體含量一旦過高,將攔截過多的地球輻射,使得地表氣溫逐漸上升,造成諸多環境問題。因此各國政府正著手進行各項減碳計畫,而電動車產業正是各國以及汽車製造產業目前正在研發以及推動之要點。
    共享經濟的概念目前正在全世界逐漸發展,此概念結合了許多不同領域之產業,而車輛共享計劃也在此概念下誕生。隨著電動車逐漸發展完備,以及電池技術的改良,電動車的行駛距離以及充電模式已經能夠符合大眾之需求,共享概念以及電動車之結合正是節能減碳以及解決車輛數過多的一大良策。由於電動車共享系統仍屬新創之產業,其實際營運模式以及營運之規模(例如:充電站站數、車輛規模等)仍為未定數,因此業者在初期的投資評估上尚有困難。
    有鑑於此,本研究欲針對電動車共享系統建構一模擬模式,利用Arena軟體模擬電動車共享系統之實際營運模式,考量所有可能會在系統中所出現之情況,利用模擬模式實際呈現,幫助業者了解系統如何運行。並建立三種不同的投資情境,包含投資成本最小化、收入最大化以及利潤最大化,利用本研究所建立之最適車隊規模產生模式,反覆評估以及計算,並求得此三種情境之最適車隊規模。本研究藉由拆解電動車共享系統之成本結構,計算各種投資規模之成本、利潤以及損益平衡時間,以作為業者在進行電動車共享系統之投資時,制定最終投資決策之依據。

    There are growing concerns on traffic congestion, climate change and parking problems in major cities. Faced with these concerns, policy makers have sought sustainable transportation options including electric vehicle sharing programs. The combination of the sharing concept and electric vehicles could reduce carbon dioxide emissions and vehicle congestion in cities. Carsharing is growing rapidly in popularity, often backed by government and private partners, such as universities and developers. Carsharing has lower fixed costs and higher variable costs than private vehicle ownership, making occasional use of a vehicle affordable. Since the electric car sharing system is at its early stage, its actual operating mode and the scale are still uncertain, so the initial investment assessment is difficult for investors.
    In light of the challenges ahead, this research constructs an algorithm that generates the optimal fleet size of an electric car sharing system including the number of electric vehicles and charging piles. To simulate the actual circumstances, this study constructs a model with actual data for the electric vehicle sharing system by using Arena 14.0. The study establishes three investment scenarios: the minimization of investment costs, the maximization of income and profits, searching the best solution of each scenario. The feasible fleet size of each scenario which is generated by the algorithm could be used as the recommendations for making the final investment decision.

    摘要 i Abstract ii 誌謝 vii 目錄 viii 表目錄 xi 圖目錄 xii 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.2 研究動機 2 1.3 研究目的 3 1.4研究流程 3 第二章 文獻探討 6 2.1電動車概論 6 2.1.1電動車發展歷史 6 2.1.2電動車簡介及種類 7 2.1.3台灣電動車產業發展概況 10 2.2 車輛共享系統 15 2.2.1車輛共享系統之概念 15 2.2.2車輛共享系統之發展 16 2.2.3車輛共享系統之種類 18 2.2.4台灣現行車輛共享系統-和運iRent 19 2.2.5車輛共享系統可帶來之效益 19 2.2.6車輛共享系統與車輛租賃之比較 21 2.3國際上現有車輛共享系統 - Zipcar 22 2.3.1 Zipcar之起源與現況 22 2.3.2 Zipcar之營運模式 22 2.3.3 Zipcar之主要客群 23 2.4 系統模擬 24 2.4.1模擬簡介 24 2.4.2模擬模式建構 27 2.4.3模擬方法 30 2.5車隊規模 32 文獻小結 33 第三章 模擬、最適化模式建構 34 3.1問題描述與特性 34 3.2研究假設 35 3.3電動車共享系統營運模擬流程 37 3.4成本變數選擇 44 3.5成本公式建構 46 3.5.1建置成本計算 47 3.5.2營運成本計算 49 3.6最適車輛數、充電樁數產生模式 52 3.6.1最適車輛數、充電樁產生模式說明 52 3.6.2模擬模式結果計算 53 第四章 系統模擬分析與驗證 56 4.1參數設定 56 4.1.1電動車以及充電設施參數設定 56 4.1.2成本參數設定 57 4.1.3收入參數設定 59 4.2電動車共享系統模擬模式 60 4.2.1電動車共享系統模擬模型-用戶需求產生模式流程 60 4.2.2電動車共享系統模擬模型-用戶用車模式流程 61 4.2.3電動車共享系統模擬模型-用戶還車模式流程 62 4.2.4電動車共享系統模擬模型-電動車充電模式流程 63 4.3模擬情境設定 66 4.3.1情境一 投資成本最小化 66 4.3.2情境二 收入最大化 67 4.3.3情境三 利潤最大化 68 4.4模型驗證 71 4.4.1敏感度分析 71 4.5綜合探討 75 第五章 結論與建議 76 5.1研究結論 76 5.2未來研究與建議 77 參考文獻 78 英文文獻 78 中文文獻 81 網路資料來源 82

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    網路資料來源
    行政院公報資訊網
    https://strategyzer.com/
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1530-2415.2003.00015.x/full
    http://opinion.udn.com/opinion/story/7885/1068765

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