| 研究生: |
葉宗憲 Ye, Zong-Xian |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
BRT公車專用道設置前後安全影響評估 The Analysis of Safety Evaluation on Before and After Study for Bus Rapid Transit Exclusive Lanes |
| 指導教授: |
林佐鼎
Lin, Tzuoo-Ding |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 交通管理科學系 Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science |
| 論文出版年: | 2015 |
| 畢業學年度: | 103 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 105 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 公車捷運系統 、公車專用道 、邏輯斯迴歸模式 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Bus Rapid Transit, Bus Lanes, Logistic Regression Model |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:148 下載:0 |
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公車捷運系統(Bus Rapid Transit, BRT)為政府短期內解決台中地區長年大眾運輸問題的重點政策,BRT專用道之設置除了能夠有效提昇公車服務可靠度及服務品質外,還能降低營運成本,進而提升公車營運效率。然而,BRT專用道雖能解決公車停靠站時與慢車道機慢車產生嚴重車流交織之問題,但後續通車後也可能產生許多規劃試辦階段無法預料之問題。故本研究欲針對台中BRT探討BRT專用道設置前後,對該路段安全的影響進行探討。
首先須瞭解公車專用道之分類,並加以比較其優缺點,透過分析臺灣大道BRT專用道實施路段肇事資料,幫助瞭解BRT專用道設置前後肇事趨勢及碰撞型態之改變。透過事前事後分析,探討BRT專用道之設置是否會對肇事車種、肇事地點及肇事碰撞類型等產生影響,後續試以邏輯斯迴歸模式分析肇事資料並歸納主要肇事原因。最後依據本研究實證提出結果與建議,期望能提供政府部門參考意見,以改善臺灣大道肇事情形並協助後續BRT路網之建設。
根據本研究分析結果顯示,台中BRT專用道之設置,確實對該路段造成影響,使碰撞型態、事故特性發生改變,其中,同期中各月份事故件數皆增加,而其肇事主因多為未注意車前狀態或未保持行車安全間隔或距離,此外,碰撞型態中,以追撞類型最為顯著,政府部門應對此擬定相關策略,改善道路交通安全。
Bus Rapid Transit is the key policy of the government to solve the public transportation problem in Taichung area for many years. The setting up of BRT lanes can enhance operational efficiency of bus, because it can improve reliability and quality of bus service, and also help reducing operating costs. Though BRT lanes can solve traffic conflict of bus and motorcycle when bus want to approach the bus stop. There are still many problem cannot be expected during planning and pilot phase. Therefore, we discuss for the influences on road safety before and after the BRT lanes set up in this study.
First, we have to understand the category of bus lanes and compare their advantages and disadvantages. We will know traffic accident trends and collision patterns before and after setting up BRT lanes by analyze the accident data. Through advance postmortem analysis, We can know that if BRT lanes changed accident vehicles, location, and collision types. Next, we tried to analyze traffic accident data summarized the main cause of the accidents by Logistic Regression Model. Last, according this study, we want to provide some reference to government, helping to improve traffic accidents on Taiwan Boulevard and the building of BRT road network.
According to this research result, the setting up of Taichung BRT lanes really makes influence on Taiwan Boulevard, and it changes collision patterns and accident characteristics. In this data, the number of accident increased in every month during the same period. The main cause of the accident are mostly ‘did not pay attention to the road ahead of the vehicle’ or ‘did not keep a safety distance or spacing. Moreover, in collision patterns, rear-end collision is most notable of all. The government should set up some policy to improve traffic safety.
一、 中文部分
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4.李俊賢、周榮昌、張景興、陳良俊、鍾宜螢、徐千雲、葉南廷、林繼國、張贊育、楊弘道(2001)。台中市公車專用道系統規劃與設置可行性研究。交通部運輸研究所。
5.周雍傑(2000)。以類神經網路探討都市地區肇事嚴重程度之研究。國立成功大學交通管理科學研究所碩士論文。
6.林佐鼎、陳志和(2001)。都市地區肇事嚴重程度預測模式之研究。中華民國大8屆運輸安全研討會。
7.林佐鼎、陳志和(2001)。都市地區肇事嚴重程度預測模式之研究。中華民國第 8 屆運輸安全研討會。
8.林國顯(2010)。研提推動大眾捷運系統建設與營運永續發展機制之研究。交通部運輸研究所。
9.林國顯、呂怡青、陳柏江(2010)。國內適用BRT 標準探討與推動策略之研究。交通部運輸研究所。
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17.黃維崧(2006)。影響台鐵平交道事故因素之研究。國立交通大學碩士論文。
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19.羅仕倫(2007)。台中市BRT公車捷運系統路網規劃之研究。逢甲大學都市計畫所。
20.陳宗豪(2009)。邏輯斯迴歸模型的應用:內孤立子的傳導影響。
二、 英文部分
1.Abegaz, T., Berhane, Y., Worku, A., Assrat, A., & Assefa, A. (2014). Effects of excessive speeding and falling asleep while driving on crash injury severity in Ethiopia: A generalized ordered logit model analysis. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 71, 15-21.
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4.Celik, A. K., & Oktay, E. (2014). A multinomial logit analysis of risk factors influencing road traffic injury severities in the Erzurum and Kars Provinces of Turkey. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 72, 66-77.
5.Dissanayake, S., & Lu, J. J. (2002). Factors influential in making an injury severity difference to older drivers involved in fixed object–passenger car crashes. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 34(5), 609-618.
6.Federal Transit Administration(FTA) (1998). BRT Reference Guide. US Department of Transportation.
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8.Federal Transit Administration(FTA) (1998). Issues in Bus Rapid Transit. US Department of Transportation.
9.Federal Transit Administration(FTA) (2001). BRT Vehicle Characteristics.
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11.Hu, F., Lv, D., Zhu, J., & Fang, J. (2014). Related risk factors for injury severity of e-bike and bicycle crashes in Hefei. Traffic injury prevention, 15(3), 319-323.
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13.Kontogiannis, T., Kossiavelou, Z., & Marmaras, N. (2002). Self-reports of aberrant behaviour on the roads: errors and violations in a sample of Greek drivers. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 34(3), 381-399.
14.Lawerence T. Lam (2004). Environmental factors associated with crash-related mortality and injury among taxi drivers in New South Wales, Australia. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 36, 905-908.
15.Milton, J. C., Shankar, V. N., & Mannering, F. L. (2008). Highway accident severities and the mixed logit model: an exploratory empirical analysis. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 40(1), 260-266.
16.Pai, C. W., Hwang, K. P., & Saleh, W. (2009). A mixed logit analysis of motorists’ right-of-way violation in motorcycle accidents at priority T-junctions. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 41(3), 565-573.
17.Shankar, V., Mannering, F., & Barfield, W. (1995). Effect of roadway geometrics and environmental factors on rural freeway accident frequencies. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 27(3), 371-389.
18.Siskind, V., Steinhardt, D., Sheehan, M., O’Connor, T., & Hanks, H. (2011). Risk factors for fatal crashes in rural Australia. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 43(3), 1082-1088.
19.Sze, N. N., & Wong, S. C. (2007). Diagnostic analysis of the logistic model for pedestrian injury severity in traffic crashes. Accident Analysis & Prevention,39(6), 1267-1278.
20.Transit Cooperative Research Program (2003). Bus Rapid Transit—Volume 1—Case studies in Bus Rapid Transit. TCRP Report 90. Washington DC: Transportation Research Board.
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24.Yau, K. K. (2004). Risk factors affecting the severity of single vehicle traffic accidents in Hong Kong. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 36(3), 333-340.
25.Myers, R. H., Montgomery, D. C., Vining G. G. (2002), Generalized linear models with applications in engineering and sciences.John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
三、 網站資料
1.中華民國交通部:www.motc.gov.tw/
2.台中市快捷巴士(BRT):www.brttaichung.com.tw/
3.台中市政府交通局:www.traffic.taichung.gov.tw/
4.台中市政府警察局:www.police.taichung.gov.tw/
5.台北市交通管制工程處:www.bote.taipei.gov.tw/
6.台北市政府交通局:www.dot.taipei.gov.tw/
7.嘉義客運:www.cibus.com.tw/
8.維基百科:http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/
校內:2020-08-27公開