簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 赫內
Rene, Jean Frantz
論文名稱: 以殘差刻引法進行台灣地區太陽能輻射分布
MODELING OF THE GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION DISTRIBUTION IN TAIWAN USING RESIDUAL KRIGING METHOD
指導教授: 張克勤
Chang, Keh-Chin
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 航空太空工程學系
Department of Aeronautics & Astronautics
論文出版年: 2017
畢業學年度: 105
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 77
外文關鍵詞: Residual kriging, Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method, Solar radiation, Ordinary kriging, typical meteorological year (TMY)
相關次數: 點閱:132下載:0
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • none

    This study was carried out in the region of Taiwan, with a surface area covering around 36,000 km2. The country comprises 24 out of 30 meteorological stations, which are located in the territory of Republic of China. This implies a considerable restriction in the number of solar radiation information collection stations; therefore, it is impossible to provide spatially continuous set of data, which can be used in ecology, climate change studies and renewable energy systems (Diaz, Grosjean, & Graumlich, 2003; Nalder & Wein, 1998; & WU, 2001). To compensate for the missing data, this study used kriging methodology for the interpolation and the mapping of solar radiation distribution in Taiwan. As the study region exhibits high spatial variability, a particular interpolation procedure, namely residual or regression kriging (Hengl, 2007; Kollias, 2002), which enables incorporation of exterior sources such as geographical factors (i.e longitude, latitude and elevation) was selected as most appropriate. The experimental datasets included 10 years (2004-2013) of spatial data gathered by typical meteorological year method at 24 stations (23 used for validation). Cross validation was performed using 1SUFER 13, verification was carried out using the Geostatistical Analyst tool 2ArcGIS 10.3.
    The least squares regression coefficients were computed by the standard Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method using the statistical package 3EViews 8. A monthly map of 1 km ×1 km special resolution was assessed using ArcGIS 10.3. Two empirical models: a linear and an exponential variogram were computed to represent the distribution of spatial structures. Overall, both models performed similarly and showed satisfactory estimates, with a slight overestimation in MPE and ME for the exponential model. The proposed residual kriging was rated against the previous ordinary kriging study (Liu, C.W 2016), which was considered as the skill evaluator of the presumed residual kriging improvements. As expected, the results proved that residual kriging exhibits smaller statistical errors than ordinary kriging. The maximum improvement was found in July (maximum MAE value 1.84 versus 2.14, a 12% comparative improvement). The residual kriging error (MAPE) ranges from 8.3% in June to 11.5% in November as compared to 7% in June to 14% in November for OK, which represents a 3% relative improvement.

    ABSTRACT III ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VI LIST OF TABLES X LIST OF FIGURES XII NOMENCLATURE XIII CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Study Background 1 1.2 Motivations and Objectives 4 1.3 Thesis Organization 6 CHAPTER 2 PRESENTATON OF THE STUDY REGION AND DATASET 7 2.1 Study region 7 2.2 Terrain 8 2.3 Database 9 2.4 Research data 10 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY 12 3. 1- Introduction to Geostatistical Analysis 12 3.1.1 Linear prediction 12 3.1.2 Linear predictor 13 3.1.3 Unbiased predictor 13 3.2 Geostatistics Techniques 14 3.2.1 Variogram 14 3.2.2 Theoretical Variogram 16 3.3 Intrinsic stationarity hypothesis 17 3.4 Theoretical variogram 17 3.5 Second-order stationary 18 3.6 Experimental variogram 19 3.6.1 Semivariogram 19 3.6.2 Parametric variogram models 20 3.7 Mathematical Models 21 3.8 Kriging 23 3.8.1 Type of kriging 23 3.8.2 Ordinary kriging 24 3.8.3 O.K assumptions: 24 3.8.4 O.K prediction 25 3.8.5 Unbiasedness 25 3.8.6 Minimum Variance 26 3.9 Ordinary Kriging Equations 26 3.10 Residual Kriging 28 3.11 Linear Regression Model 30 3.11.1 Linear regression or Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression 30 3.11.2 Linear regression mathematical model 31 3.12 Evaluation Procedure 32 CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 35 4.1 Spatial structure analysis 35 4.2 Residual Kriging Procedure 36 4.3 Assessment of Linear and exponential models 40 4.3.1 Linear and Exponential model evaluation 40 4.4 Performance comparison between RK and OK 42 4.5 Semivariogram parameters 43 4.6 Spatial distribution of solar radiation 44 4.7 Lookup table 45 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION 46 FUTURE WORK 48 REFERENCES 49 APPENDIX 55 TABLES 55 FIGURES 67

    Ahmed, S., &DeMarsily, G. (1987). Comparison of geostatistical methods for estimating transmissivity using data on transmissivity and specific capacity. Water Resources Research, 23(9), 1717–1737.
    Bahel, V., Bakhsh, H., &Srinivasan, R. (1987). A correlation for estimation of global solar radiation. Energy, 12(2), 131–135.
    Borges, P. D. A., Franke, J., &Bernhofer, C. (2016). Comparison of spatial interpolation methods for the estimation of precipitation distribution in Distrito Federal , Brazil, 2012, 335–348. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1359-9
    Chang, K. C., Yen, W. L., and Liu, C. W., “ Solar Global Radiation Information of Taiwan in Terms of the Typical Meteorological Year between 2004 and 2013, ” Journal of Taiwan Energy, Vol. 3, pp. 89-101, 2016 (in chinese)
    Cressie, N. (1985). Fitting variogram models by weighted least squares. Journal of the International Association for Mathematical Geology, 17(5), 563–586.
    Das, A., Park, J., &Park, J. (2015). Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Estimation of available global solar radiation using sunshine duration over South Korea. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 134, 22–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2015.09.001
    DiPiazza, A., Conti, F.Lo, Noto, L.V, Viola, F., &LaLoggia, G. (2011). Comparative analysis of different techniques for spatial interpolation of rainfall data to create a serially complete monthly time series of precipitation for Sicily, Italy. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 13(3), 396–408.
    Diaz, H. F., Grosjean, M., &Graumlich, L. (2003). Climate variability and change in high elevation regions: past, present and future. Climatic Change, 59(1), 1–4.
    Goovaerts, P. (2000). Geostatistical approaches for incorporating elevation into the spatial interpolation of rainfall. Journal of Hydrology, 228(1), 113–129.
    Helsel, D. R., &Hirsch, R. M. (1992). Statistical methods in water resources (Vol. 49). Elsevier.
    Hengl, T. (2007). A Practical Guide to Geostatistical Mapping of Environmental Variables.
    Heuvelink, G. B. M. (2009). R. Webster, MA Oliver: Geostatistics for Environmental Scientists. Mathematical Geosciences, 41(4), 487–489.
    Isaaks, E. H. S., Isaaks, M. R. E. H., &Srivastava, M. R. (1989). Applied geostatistics.
    Isaaks, E. H., &Srivastava, R. M. (1989). Applied geostatistics: An introduction. Applied Geoestatistics: An Introduction to.
    Johnson, G. A., Mortensen, D. A., &Gotway, C. A. (1996). Spatial and temporal analysis of weed seedling populations using geostatistics. Weed Science, 704–710.
    Journel, A. G., &Huijbregts, C. J. (1978). Mining geostatistics. Academic press.
    Kastelec, D., &Košmelj, K. (2002). Spatial Interpolation of Mean Yearly Precipitation using Universal Kriging.
    Kitanidis, K. (1997). The minimum structure solution to the inverse problem It is widely accepted that a well-defined estimate can be obtained only if K •, 33(10), 2263–2272.
    Kitanidis, P. K. (1997). Introduction to geostatistics: applications in hydrogeology. Cambridge University Press.
    Kollias, V. J. (2002). SPATIAL PREDICTION OF TWO SOIL PROPERTIES USING TOPOGRAPHIC INFORMATION, 4(1), 41–49.
    Lui. C. W. (2016). A Geostatistical Approach for Mapping Global Solar Radiation in Taiwan, Master Thesis, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan (in chinese)
    Lhotellier, R., &Patriche, C.V. (2009). USING LOW-PASS FILTERS TO IMPROVE REGRESSION MODELS FOR CLIMATE VARIABLES. A STUDY CASE OF WINTER MEAN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE FRENCH ALPS. Geographia Technica, 7(1).
    Malvić, T. (2008). Kriging, cokriging or stochastical simulations, and the choice between deterministic or sequential approaches. Geologia Croatica, 61(1), 37–47.
    Marsily, D. E. (1987). Comparison of Geostatistical Methods for Estimating Transmissivity Using Data on Transmissivity and Specific Capacity, 23(9), 1717–1737.
    Martinez-Cob, A. (1996). Multivariate geostatistical analysis of evapotranspiration and precipitation in mountainous terrain. Journal of Hydrology, 174(1–2), 19–35.
    Matheron, G. (1962). Traité de géostatistique appliquée. 1 (1962) (Vol. 1). Editions Technip.
    Metheron, G. (1971). Theory of regionalized variables and its applications. Cah. Centre Morrphol. Math., 5, 211.
    Nalder, I. A., &Wein, R. W. (1998). Spatial interpolation of climatic normals: test of a new method in the Canadian boreal forest. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 92(4), 211–225.
    Ninyerola, M., Pons, X., &Roure, J. M. (2000). A methodological approach of climatological modelling of air temperature and precipitation through GIS techniques. International Journal of Climatology, 20(14), 1823–1841.
    Odeh, I. O. A., McBratney, A. B., &Chittleborough, D. J. (1995). Further results on prediction of soil properties from terrain attributes: heterotopic cokriging and regression-kriging. Geoderma, 67(3–4), 215–226.
    Phillips, D. L., Dolph, J., &Marks, D. (1992). A comparison of geostatistical procedures for spatial analysis of precipitation in mountainous terrain. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 58(1–2), 119–141.
    Portalés, C., Boronat, N., Pardo‐Pascual, J. E., &Balaguer‐Beser, A. (2010). Seasonal precipitation interpolation at the Valencia region with multivariate methods using geographic and topographic information. International Journal of Climatology, 30(10), 1547–1563.
    Prudhomme, C., &Reed, D. W. (1999). Mapping extreme rainfall in a mountainous region using geostatistical techniques: A case study in Scotland. International Journal of Climatology, 19(12), 1337–1356. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199910)19:12<1337::AID-JOC421>3.0.CO;2-G
    Tovar-pescador, J., Alsamamra, H., Ruiz-arias, J. A., &Pozo-va, D. (2009). Agricultural and Forest Meteorology A comparative study of ordinary and residual kriging techniques for mapping global solar radiation over southern Spain, 149, 1343–1357. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.03.005
    VerHoef, J. M., &Cressie, N. (1993). Multivariable spatial prediction. Mathematical Geology, 25(2), 219–240.
    Wackernagel, H. (2003). Multivariate Geostatistics, 387 pp. Springer, New York.
    Wackernagel, H. (2009). Geostatistics for Gaussian processes, (July).
    Webster, R., &Oliver, M. A. (2007). Characterizing spatial processes: the covariance and variogram. Geostatistics for Environmental Scientists, Second Edition, 47–76.
    WU, Y., &WU, C. (2001). A STUDY ON KRIGING-BASED URBAN BASE AND STANDARD LAND VALUE ASSESSMENT── TAKING HANGZHOU CITY AS A CASE [J]. Economic Geography, 5, 15.
    Wypych, A. (2013). Using GIS Methods in Spatial Modelling of Climatic Water Balance Index, 147–156. https://doi.org/10.1553/giscience2013s147.
    1 http://www.goldensoftware.com/products/surfer
    2 https://doc.arcgis.com/en/trust/
    3http://www.eviews.com/home.html

    下載圖示 校內:2022-08-20公開
    校外:2022-08-20公開
    QR CODE