桃園航空城計劃是臺灣有史以來最大的開發計劃，是一個超過5000億新臺幣的投資項目，用於開發臺灣桃園國際機場及周邊地區4500公頃，估計創造200,000-300,000個工作機會和2.3萬億新臺幣的產值。為了評估航空城的影響分析，必須瞭解城市內部的動態系統是如何影響航空城的發展。
傳統的大型運輸項目評估方法通過三個因素（按時，按預算和在規定的規範內完成項目）考慮作為判斷成功與否的標準，具有以下三點不足：
1.傳統的評估方法無法體現這些項目對區域更大層面的影響（社會以及經濟層面）；2.傳統的評估方法是一個封閉系統，無法體現它們與不斷變化的“環境”之間相互作用的關係（環境包括社會，經濟，物質，制度和政治背景）；3.傳統的評估方法在風險預估和不確定性分析上缺乏不足（幾乎90%的項目都遭遇了成本超支，實際交通量比預測偏低的情況）；
為了更有效地應對未來各種情況的風險和不確定性，我們需要開發一種新的動態系統模型來分析大型運輸項目的影響和項目與環境之間的關係。
本研究以臺灣桃園航空城為例，基於系統動態學（System Dynamic）與基於代理模型（Agent-based Model）理論提出一種動態系統模型，預測機場對於人口、經濟、產業空間三個方面的影響，模擬產業的空間分佈與環境之間的互動關係。通過情景模擬進行敏感性分析，預估未來可能面臨的風險。
旨在解決兩個關鍵問題：1.航空城的經濟發展與人口、產業、土地使用之間的關係？（航空城會吸引什麼產業進駐？帶動的總就業人數是多少？住宅和產業土地需求是多少？）2.航空城產業的空間分佈與環境之間的關係？
研究結果表明，機場客流量通過帶來就業機會影響經濟發展。非基礎產業（服務業）人口比例影響航空城土地需求，通勤人口是判斷航空城發展階段的關鍵指標。航空城規劃應根據適當的土地需求預測和就業人口比例分析，以及航空城項目的階段需求和收入預測，推薦適合的產業入駐。

SUMMARY
Aerotropolis is a mega-transportation project that needs to be evaluated for its impact on population, economic and land demand. System Dynamic and Agent-based models have proven to be an effective method for past transportation project and land use policy analysis. This study used a mixed model SD-ABM for policy impact analysis to the Taoyuan Aerotropolis plan. And our studies also have shown that the policy promotes employment and economic development in aerotropolis.
INTRODUCTION
A successful airport clearly guilds the city or region's economic（Freestone, R., 2009).Based on the research from Kasarda (2010), an aerotropolis is a metropolitan subregion where the layout, infrastructure, and economy are centered on an airport which serves as a multi-model "airport city" commercial core. The development of airport results to many direct and indirect socio-economic benefits to the city's and region's economic. Due to the contribution of airport to the regional economy is very important since many airport infrastructure projects are being implemented, it is necessary to take it into consideration.
Taoyuan Aerotropolis Project in Taiwan aims to develop the surrounding of Taoyuan Airport, attract more industrial investment and enhance the competitiveness of the region, which make the Taiwan become the air transportation center in the Asia-Pacific region. The Taoyuan Aerotropolis will essentially create a modern industrial logistics center as well as a modern urban residential neighborhood. Concept plans for the massive 4,500-hectare project is under working, and the project will possibly be the largest infrastructure project in Taiwan’s history. It is expected to drastically increase investment in aviation and transport related industries in Taiwan, while it also increasing the airport’s passenger capacity from 40 million annual passengers to 60 million around. A recent report from the American Chamber of Commerce said that the total project was expected to create between 200,000 and 300,000 new jobs. It is also anticipated that the project, once completed, will generate annual revenues of US$ 74 billion dollars around.
Nevertheless, the challenges are leading the companies here. Could it solve the problem, or which kind of industry is suitable to leading here? Could the passage flows affect employment? What totally area should we prepare for the aerotropolis? And apart from above, we also need to know its tendency of change about land-usage in the future.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Our research target is testing the rationality of Taoyuan Aerotropolis Plan in the future. Taoyuan Aerotropolis Project in Taiwan aims to develop the surrounding of Taoyuan Airport. It attracts more industrial investment and enhances the competitiveness of the region, which make the Taiwan become the air transportation center in the Asia-Pacific region.
Cost-benefit analysis is the most broadly method for assessing transportation projects. The cost-benefit analysis method is static analysis. Most infrastructure projects have dynamic effects in terms of productivity, employment and GDP, making it difficult to use CBA to analyze these dynamic effects.
Therefore, we introduce System Dynamic model to analysis the dynamic effect in project. System Dynamic is an interdisciplinary method used to clarify the complex systems. System Dynamic is not intended to be predictive or making detailed forecasts, but to provide a means for better understanding the behavior of the world economic system.
Agent-based model can be used to explore the interaction between local and global in complex systems of land space. Agent based model has emerged as a promising tool to provide planners with sophisticated insights on social behavior and the interdependencies characterizing urban system, particularly with respect to traffic and transport planning.
This article aims to evaluate the effects from the policy by using the Systems Dynamics and Agent-based model, which focused on population, industry and land demand.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
According to the results of stimulation, the impact from the airport to employment opportunities can meet expectations, but the impact to economic benefits is out of expectation. A strong policy implementation is easy to achieve the goal of employment expectation and economic growth, especially in high-growth situations. We have designed three possible scenarios with different political implementation：airport growth policy , Taiwanese business return policy and commuting rate policy. After we tested the three scenarios, we can easily to find out that the airport traffic can affect the economy in a tiny range, the investment policy can strongly stimulate the economic development, and commuting improvements can effectively alleviate the pressure of residential saturation.
CONCLUSION
The approach of System Dynamic has obvious advantages compare to the traditional evaluation method of cost-benefit analysis. Cherie Lu (2011) has assessed the employment opportunities and economic benefits of Taoyuan Airport by the cost-benefit analysis, which its results illustrated the total economic benefit of Taoyuan Airport was about 913 million euros in 2008. It was much lower than the aviation city planning expectations. In contrast, our simulation results of this study are more accurate. The system dynamic model can not only reflect the direct and indirect effects of airport activities on economic benefits but help us to sort out the dynamic relationship between subsystems. Based on future risks and uncertainties, analysis situation can be set up to take airport traffic, corporate investment and commute changes as different factors into consideration. Through the approach, we can improve the accuracy of simulation results, which can supply us more countermeasures for the project.

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